IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v8y1998i1p73-80.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The relationship between US and Canadian wheat futures

Author

Listed:
  • G. Geoffrey Booth
  • Paul Brockman
  • Yiuman Tse

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between US and Canadian wheat futures prices in order to analyse the degree of information spillover between the futures exchanges of both countries. Although considerable research has focused on the relationship between US and Canadian equity markets, little work has been conducted on their respective future markets. The increase in market-oriented trade agreements and the decrease of governmental presence in the agricultural sector adds to the importance and timeliness of such a study. The results show that both the US and Canadian wheat futures prices are an integrated series of order one, and that the two series are cointegrated. Although the evidence shows an equilibrium relationship in the long run, short-run dynamics exhibit no such dependencies. These results are relevant for various market participants, including farmers, grain merchants, speculators, exchanges, and regulatory agencies.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Geoffrey Booth & Paul Brockman & Yiuman Tse, 1998. "The relationship between US and Canadian wheat futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 73-80.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:8:y:1998:i:1:p:73-80
    DOI: 10.1080/096031098333276
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/096031098333276
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/096031098333276?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nabil Khoury & Pierre Yourougou, 1993. "Determinants of agricultural futures price volatilities: Evidence from winnipeg commodity exchange," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 345-356, June.
    2. Paul Brockman & Yiuman Tse, 1995. "Information shares in Canadian agricultural cash and futures markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(10), pages 335-338.
    3. Jorion, Philippe & Schwartz, Eduardo, 1986. "Integration vs. Segmentation in the Canadian Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 603-614, July.
    4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    5. T. Randall Fortenbery & Hector O. Zapata, 1993. "An examination of cointegration relations between futures and local grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(8), pages 921-932, December.
    6. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    7. Yiuman Tse & G. Booth, 1995. "The relationship between U.S. and eurodollar interest rates: Evidence from the futures market," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 131(1), pages 28-46, March.
    8. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    9. George Koutoulas & Lawrence Kryzanowski, 1994. "Integration or Segmentation of the Canadian Stock Market: Evidence Based on the APT," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 329-351, May.
    10. Campbell, John Y. & Shiller, Robert J., 1988. "Interpreting cointegrated models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 505-522.
    11. Nabil T. Khoury & Pierre Yourougou, 1991. "The informational content of the basis: Evidence from Canadian barley, oats, and canola futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 69-80, February.
    12. Stephen R. Koontz & Philip Garcia & Michael A. Hudson, 1990. "Dominant‐satellite relationships between live cattle cash and futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 123-136, April.
    13. Mittoo, Usha R, 1992. "Additional Evidence on Integration in the Canadian Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 2035-2054, December.
    14. Thomas V. Schwarz & Andrew C. Szakmary, 1994. "Price discovery in petroleum markets: Arbitrage, cointegration, and the time interval of analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 147-167, April.
    15. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Booth, Laurence D & Johnston, David J, 1984. "The Ex-Dividend Day Behavior of Canadian Stock Prices: Tax Changes and Clientele Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(2), pages 457-476, June.
    17. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    18. Roll, Richard, 1992. "Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 3-41, March.
    19. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    20. David A. Bessler & Ted Covey, 1991. "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 461-474, August.
    21. Charles M. Oellermann & B. Wade Brorsen & Paul L. Farris, 1989. "Price discovery for feeder cattle," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 113-121, April.
    22. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    23. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    24. Stephen R Foerster & G Andrew Karolyi, 1993. "International Listings of Stocks: The Case of Canada and the U.S," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 24(4), pages 763-784, December.
    25. Mao‐Wei Hung & Hua Zhang, 1995. "Price movements and price discovery in the municipal bond index and the index futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 489-506, June.
    26. Hung‐Gay Fung & Wai K. Leung, 1993. "The pricing relationship of eurodollar futures and eurodollar deposit rates," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 115-126, April.
    27. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    28. Stanley C. Stevens, 1991. "Evidence for a weather persistence effect on the corn, wheat, and soybean growing season price dynamics," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 81-88, February.
    29. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    30. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Charles M. Oellermann & Paul L. Farris, 1985. "Futures or Cash: Which Market Leads Live Beef Cattle Prices?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, December.
    32. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
    33. Colin A. Carter, 1989. "Arbitrage opportunities between thin and liquid futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 347-353, August.
    34. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shernaz Bodhanwala & Harsh Purohit & Nidhi Choudhary, 2020. "The Causal Dynamics in Indian Agriculture Commodity Prices and Macro-Economic Variables in the Presence of a Structural Break," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 241-261, February.
    2. Li, Wei-Xuan & Chen, Clara Chia-Sheng & Nguyen, James, 2022. "Which market dominates the price discovery in currency futures? The case of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Intercontinental Exchange," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Ana I. Sanjuán-López & Philip J. Dawson, 2017. "Volatility Effects of Index Trading and Spillovers on US Agricultural Futures Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 822-838, September.
    4. José César Cruz Junior & Daniel H D Capitani & Rodrigo L F Silveira, 2018. "The effect of Brazilian corn and soybean crop expansion on price and volatility transmission," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 2273-2283.
    5. Philipp Adämmer & Martin T. Bohl & Ernst-Oliver Ledebur, 2017. "Dynamics Between North American And European Agricultural Futures Prices During Turmoil And Financialization," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 57-76, January.
    6. Yongmin Zhang & Yiru Sun & Haili Shi & Shusheng Ding & Yingxue Zhao, 2024. "COVID-19, the Russia–Ukraine war and the connectedness between the U.S. and Chinese agricultural futures markets," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Xingguo Luo & Yuting Lin & Xiaoli Yu & Feng He, 2021. "How trading in commodity futures option markets impacts commodity futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1333-1347, August.
    8. Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2013. "International Linkages of Agri-Processed and Energy commodities traded in India," MPRA Paper 50214, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Sep 2013.
    9. Kumar Ravi & Dhiman Babli, 2022. "Indian and Chinese Metal Futures Markets: A Linkage Analysis," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, September.
    10. Abricha, Amal & Ben Amar, Amine & Bellalah, Makram, 2024. "Commodity futures markets under stress and stress-free periods: Further insights from a quantile connectedness approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 229-246.
    11. Amar, Amine Ben & Goutte, Stéphane & Isleimeyyeh, Mohammad & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2022. "Commodity markets dynamics: What do cross-commodities over different nearest-to-maturities tell us?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Julien Chevallier & Florian Ielpo, 2013. "Volatility spillovers in commodity markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1211-1227, September.
    13. Liu, Xiaochun & Jacobsen, Brian, 2011. "The Dynamic International Optimal Hedge Ratio," MPRA Paper 35260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2013. "Price, Return and Volatility Linkages of Base Metal Futures traded in India," MPRA Paper 47864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Tao Chen & Liang Wu & Isabel Kit-Ming Yan, 2013. "On the Use of International Commodity Futures Spread for Forecasting China's Net Imports of Commodities," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7), pages 861-879, July.
    16. Yuanlong Ge & Holly H. Wang & Sung K. Ahn, 2010. "Cotton market integration and the impact of China's new exchange rate regime," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(5), pages 443-451, September.
    17. Levy, Tamir & Qadan, Mahmod & Yagil, Joseph, 2013. "Predicting the limit-hit frequency in futures contracts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 141-148.
    18. Ramaprasad Bhar & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2006. "Component structures of agricultural commodity futures traded on the Tokyo Grain Exchange," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, March.
    19. Yongmin Zhang & Shusheng Ding & Haili Shi, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on the interdependence between US and Chinese oil futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(11), pages 2041-2052, November.
    20. Philipp Adämmer & Martin T. Bohl & Ernst-Oliver Ledebur, 2015. "Price Transmissions During Financialization and Turmoil: New Evidence from North American and European Agricultural Futures," CQE Working Papers 3815, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    21. Jian Yang & Jin Zhang & David J. Leatham, 2003. "Price and Volatility Transmission in International Wheat Futures," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(1), pages 37-50, May.
    22. Fabio L. Mattos & Rodrigo Lanna Franco da Silveira, 2018. "The Expansion of the Brazilian Winter Corn Crop and Its Impact on Price Transmission," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-17, April.
    23. Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor & Fung, Hung-Gay, 2005. "Cross-market linkages between U.S. and Japanese precious metals futures trading," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 107-124, April.
    24. Jinbo Pang & Lingfei Deng & Gangyi Wang, 2017. "An evolutionarily stable strategy and the critical point of hog futures trading entities based on replicator dynamic theory: 2006–2015 data for China’s 22 provinces," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Tse, Yiuman & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Booth, G. Geoffrey, 1996. "The international transmission of information in Eurodollar futures markets: a continuously trading market hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 447-465, June.
    3. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, January.
    4. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Defence Expenditures And Gdp In Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-385.
    5. Alexander Schätz & Steffen Sebastian, 2009. "The links between property and the economy -- evidence from the British and German markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 171-191, September.
    6. Stephen R. Foerster & G. Andrew Karolyi, "undated". "The Effects of Market Segmentation and Illiquidity on Asset Prices: Evidence from Foreign Stocks Listing in the US," Research in Financial Economics 9606, Ohio State University.
    7. Éric Jondeau, 2001. "La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme permet-elle de rendre compte de l'évolution des taux d'intérêt sur euro-devise ?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 62, pages 139-174.
    8. repec:adr:anecst:y:2001:i:62:p:07 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Eleftherios J. Thalassinos & Evagelos D. Politis, 2011. "International Stock Markets: A Co-integration Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 113-130.
    10. Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe, 2004. "Efficiency Of Foreign Exchange Markets: A Developing Country Perspective," International Finance 0406004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Vuyyuri, S., 2004. "Linkages of Indian Interest Rates with US and Japanese Rates," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2).
    12. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    13. Ely, David & Salehizadeh, Mehdi, 2001. "American depositary receipts: An analysis of international stock price movements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 343-363.
    14. Joseph, Kishore & Garcia, Philip & Peterson, Paul E., 2016. "Does the Boxed Beef Price Inform the Live Cattle Futures Price?," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236166, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 70-91, May.
    16. Boswijk, H. Peter & Franses, Philip Hans & van Dijk, Dick, 2010. "Cointegration in a historical perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 156-159, September.
    17. Wu, Jyh-lin, 1998. "Are budget deficits "too large"?: The evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 519-528.
    18. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.
    19. Apostolos Serletis, 2007. "Is There an East-West Split in North American Natural Gas Markets?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 6, pages 59-72, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    21. Frederic S. Mishkin & John Simon, 1995. "An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(3), pages 217-229, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:8:y:1998:i:1:p:73-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.