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A Preliminary Forecast of the Production Status of China’s Daqing Oil field from the Perspective of EROI

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  • Bo Xu

    (School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China
    China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corporation, Beijing 100034, China)

  • Lianyong Feng

    (School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China)

  • William X. Wei

    (Mac Ewan School of Business, Grant MacEwan University, Edmonton, AB T5J 2P2, Canada)

  • Yan Hu

    (Sinopec Group Exploration and Production Research Institute, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Jianliang Wang

    (School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China)

Abstract

Energy return on investment (EROI) and net energy are useful metrics for analyzing energy production physically rather than monetarily. However, these metrics are not widely applied in China. In this study, we forecast the Daqing oilfield’s EROI from 2013 to 2025 using existing data for crude oil and natural gas production and the basic rules of EROI. Unfortunately, our calculations indicate that the oilfield’s EROI will continuously decline from 7.3 to 4.7, and the associated net energy will continuously decline from 1.53 × 10 12 MJ to 1.25 × 10 12 MJ. If China’s energy intensity does not decline as planned in the next ten years, then the EROI of Daqing will be even lower than our estimates. Additionally, relating the EROI to the monetary return on investment (MROI) in a low production and high intensity scenario, Daqing’s EROI will decline to 2.9 and its MROI will decline to 1.8 by 2025. If the “law of minimum EROI” and the assumed “minimum MROI” are taken into account, then we estimate that both energy pressure and economic pressure will restrict Daqing’s production by 2025.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo Xu & Lianyong Feng & William X. Wei & Yan Hu & Jianliang Wang, 2014. "A Preliminary Forecast of the Production Status of China’s Daqing Oil field from the Perspective of EROI," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-21, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:6:y:2014:i:11:p:8262-8282:d:42450
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jingxuan Feng & Lianyong Feng & Jianliang Wang, 2018. "Analysis of Point-of-Use Energy Return on Investment and Net Energy Yields from China’s Conventional Fossil Fuels," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-21, February.
    3. Wang, Jianliang & Liu, Mingming & McLellan, Benjamin C. & Tang, Xu & Feng, Lianyong, 2017. "Environmental impacts of shale gas development in China: A hybrid life cycle analysis," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 38-45.
    4. Kong, Zhaoyang & Dong, Xiucheng & Jiang, Qingzhe, 2019. "Forecasting the development of China's coal-to-liquid industry under security, economic and environmental constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 253-266.
    5. Zi Lin & Xiaolei Liu & Ziming Feng, 2020. "Systematic Investigation of Integrating Small Wind Turbines into Power Supply for Hydrocarbon Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, June.

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