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Modelling energy transition risk: The impact of declining energy return on investment (EROI)

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  • Jackson, Andrew
  • Jackson, Tim

Abstract

A number of papers in the field of net energy analysis have argued that declines in energy return on investment (EROI) could lead to increasing energy prices and a fall in economic growth. This paper develops a model (TranSim) which can simulate the economic and financial implications of an energy technology transition involving a reduction in EROI, by combining the stock-flow consistent (SFC) approach with an input-output (IO) model.

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  • Jackson, Andrew & Jackson, Tim, 2021. "Modelling energy transition risk: The impact of declining energy return on investment (EROI)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:185:y:2021:i:c:s0921800921000811
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107023
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    3. Hasret Sahin & A. A. Solomon & Arman Aghahosseini & Christian Breyer, 2024. "Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
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    7. Emmanuel Aramendia & Paul E. Brockway & Peter G. Taylor & Jonathan B. Norman & Matthew K. Heun & Zeke Marshall, 2024. "Estimation of useful-stage energy returns on investment for fossil fuels and implications for renewable energy systems," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 803-816, July.
    8. Schönfisch, Max, 2022. "Charting the Development of a Global Market for Low-Carbon Hydrogen," EWI Working Papers 2022-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    9. Guay-Boutet, Charles & Dufour, Mathieu, 2024. "Estimating the relationship between EROI and profitability of oil sands mining, 1997–2016," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    10. J. Andrés & J.E. Boscá & R. Doménech & J. Ferri, 2024. "Transitioning to Net-Zero: Macroeconomic Implications and Welfare Assessment," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2024-01, FEDEA.

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