IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01581713.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long-Term Estimates of the Energy-Return-on-Investment (EROI) of Coal, Oil, and Gas Global Productions

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Court

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, Palais Brogniart)

  • Florian Fizaine

    (LEDi - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dijon [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE])

Abstract

We use a price-based methodology to assess the global energy-return-on-investment (EROI) of coal, oil, and gas, fromthe beginning of their reported production (respectively 1800, 1860, and 1890) to 2012. It appears that the EROI of global oil and gas productions reached their maximumvalues in the 1930s–40s, respectively around 50:1 and 150:1, and have declined subsequently. Furthermore, we suggest that the EROI of global coal production has not yet reached its maximumvalue. Based on the originalwork of Dale et al. (2011), we then present a new theoretical dynamic expression of the EROI.Modifications of the originalmodelwere needed in order to performcalibrations on each of our price-based historical estimates of coal, oil, and gas global EROI. Theoretical models replicate the fact that maximum EROIs of global oil and gas productions have both already been reached while this is not the case for coal. In a prospective exercise, the models show the pace of the expected EROIs decrease for oil and gas in the coming century. Regarding coal, models are helpful to estimate the value and date of the EROI peak, which will most likely occur between 2025 and 2045, around a value of 95(±15):1.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Court & Florian Fizaine, 2017. "Long-Term Estimates of the Energy-Return-on-Investment (EROI) of Coal, Oil, and Gas Global Productions," Post-Print hal-01581713, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01581713
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.03.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles A. S. Hall & Stephen Balogh & David J.R. Murphy, 2009. "What is the Minimum EROI that a Sustainable Society Must Have?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, January.
    2. Robert U. Ayres & Benjamin Warr, 2009. "The Economic Growth Engine," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13324.
    3. Goetzmann, William N. & Ibbotson, Roger G. & Peng, Liang, 2001. "A new historical database for the NYSE 1815 to 1925: Performance and predictability," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-32, January.
    4. Ayres, Robert U., 1998. "Eco-thermodynamics: economics and the second law," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 189-209, August.
    5. Victor Court & Pierre-André Jouvet & Frédéric Lantz, 2018. "Long-term endogenous economic growth and energy transitions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    6. Christophe McGlade & Paul Ekins, 2015. "The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 517(7533), pages 187-190, January.
    7. Dale, M. & Krumdieck, S. & Bodger, P., 2012. "Global energy modelling — A biophysical approach (GEMBA) Part 2: Methodology," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 158-167.
    8. Nathan Gagnon & Charles A.S. Hall & Lysle Brinker, 2009. "A Preliminary Investigation of Energy Return on Energy Investment for Global Oil and Gas Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-14, July.
    9. Lambert, Jessica G. & Hall, Charles A.S. & Balogh, Stephen & Gupta, Ajay & Arnold, Michelle, 2014. "Energy, EROI and quality of life," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 153-167.
    10. Fizaine, Florian & Court, Victor, 2015. "Renewable electricity producing technologies and metal depletion: A sensitivity analysis using the EROI," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 106-118.
    11. Carey W. King, 2015. "Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics, Part 3: Macroeconomic Historical and Future Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-24, November.
    12. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521182935, September.
    13. Perrings,Charles, 1987. "Economy and Environment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521340816, September.
    14. Carey W. King & Charles A.S. Hall, 2011. "Relating Financial and Energy Return on Investment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-23, October.
    15. Florian Fizaine & Victor Court, 2015. "Renewable electricity producing technologies and metal depletion: a sensitivity analysis using the EROI," Post-Print halshs-01227860, HAL.
    16. Roger Fouquet, 2008. "Heat, Power and Light," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4061.
    17. Maddison, Angus, 2007. "Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD: Essays in Macro-Economic History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199227204.
    18. Cleveland, Cutler J., 2005. "Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 769-782.
    19. Krysiak, Frank C., 2006. "Entropy, limits to growth, and the prospects for weak sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 182-191, June.
    20. Carey W. King & John P. Maxwell & Alyssa Donovan, 2015. "Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics, Part 1: Single Technology and Commodity Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-26, November.
    21. Hall, Charles A.S. & Lambert, Jessica G. & Balogh, Stephen B., 2014. "EROI of different fuels and the implications for society," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 141-152.
    22. AfDB AfDB, . "Annual Report 2012," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 461.
    23. Murphy, David J. & Hall, Charles A.S., 2011. "Adjusting the economy to the new energy realities of the second half of the age of oil," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 67-71.
    24. Carey W. King & John P. Maxwell & Alyssa Donovan, 2015. "Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics, Part 2: Total Economy Expenditure Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-22, November.
    25. Smil, Vaclav, 2005. "Creating the Twentieth Century: Technical Innovations of 1867-1914 and Their Lasting Impact," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195168747.
    26. Dale, M. & Krumdieck, S. & Bodger, P., 2012. "Global energy modelling — A biophysical approach (GEMBA) part 1: An overview of biophysical economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 152-157.
    27. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107005198, September.
    28. O'Connor, Martin, 1991. "Entropy, structure, and organisational change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 95-122, July.
    29. Michael Dale & Susan Krumdieck & Pat Bodger, 2011. "A Dynamic Function for Energy Return on Investment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-14, October.
    30. David J. Murphy & Charles A.S. Hall & Michael Dale & Cutler Cleveland, 2011. "Order from Chaos: A Preliminary Protocol for Determining the EROI of Fuels," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-20, October.
    31. Ibbotson, Roger G & Sinquefield, Rex A, 1976. "Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation: Year-by-Year Historical Returns (1926-1974)," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(1), pages 11-47, January.
    32. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Brandt, Adam & Miller, Richard, 2010. "Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5290-5295, September.
    33. Megan C. Guilford & Charles A.S. Hall & Peter O’Connor & Cutler J. Cleveland, 2011. "A New Long Term Assessment of Energy Return on Investment (EROI) for U.S. Oil and Gas Discovery and Production," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-22, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Victor Court & Florian Fizaine, 2015. "Estimations of very long-term time series of global energy return-on-investment (EROI) of coal, oil and gas productions," Working Papers 1510, Chaire Economie du climat.
    2. Florian Fizaine & Victor Court, 2016. "The energy-economic growth relationship: a new insight from the EROI perspective," Working Papers 1601, Chaire Economie du climat.
    3. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    4. Feng, Jingxuan & Feng, Lianyong & Wang, Jianliang & King, Carey W., 2018. "Modeling the point of use EROI and its implications for economic growth in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 232-242.
    5. Victor Court & Pierre-André Jouvet & Frédéric Lantz, 2018. "Long-term endogenous economic growth and energy transitions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    6. Lina I. Brand-Correa & Paul E. Brockway & Claire L. Copeland & Timothy J. Foxon & Anne Owen & Peter G. Taylor, 2017. "Developing an Input-Output Based Method to Estimate a National-Level Energy Return on Investment (EROI)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, April.
    7. Palmer, Graham, 2017. "An input-output based net-energy assessment of an electricity supply industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1504-1516.
    8. Rye, Craig D. & Jackson, Tim, 2018. "A review of EROEI-dynamics energy-transition models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 260-272.
    9. Fizaine, Florian & Court, Victor, 2016. "Energy expenditure, economic growth, and the minimum EROI of society," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 172-186.
    10. Jingxuan Feng & Lianyong Feng & Jianliang Wang, 2018. "Analysis of Point-of-Use Energy Return on Investment and Net Energy Yields from China’s Conventional Fossil Fuels," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-21, February.
    11. Graham Palmer, 2018. "A Biophysical Perspective of IPCC Integrated Energy Modelling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, April.
    12. Guay-Boutet, Charles & Dufour, Mathieu, 2024. "Estimating the relationship between EROI and profitability of oil sands mining, 1997–2016," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    13. Charles Guay-Boutet, 2023. "Estimating the Disaggregated Standard EROI of Canadian Oil Sands Extracted via Open-pit Mining, 1997–2016," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, March.
    14. Dupont, Elise & Koppelaar, Rembrandt & Jeanmart, Hervé, 2018. "Global available wind energy with physical and energy return on investment constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 322-338.
    15. Victor Court & Pierre-André Jouvet & Frédéric Lantz, 2015. "Endogenous economic growth, EROI, and transition towards renewable energy," Working Papers 1507, Chaire Economie du climat.
    16. Elise Dupont & Marc Germain & Hervé Jeanmart, 2021. "Estimate of the Societal Energy Return on Investment (EROI)," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-14, March.
    17. Carlos de Castro & Iñigo Capellán-Pérez, 2020. "Standard, Point of Use, and Extended Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) from Comprehensive Material Requirements of Present Global Wind, Solar, and Hydro Power Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-43, June.
    18. Louis Delannoy & Pierre-Yves Longaretti & David. J. Murphy & Emmanuel Prados, 2021. "Assessing Global Long-Term EROI of Gas: A Net-Energy Perspective on the Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-16, August.
    19. Jackson, Andrew & Jackson, Tim, 2021. "Modelling energy transition risk: The impact of declining energy return on investment (EROI)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    20. Salehi, Mohammad & Khajehpour, Hossein & Saboohi, Yadollah, 2020. "Extended Energy Return on Investment of multiproduct energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fossil fuel prices; Fossil fuel EROIs; Theoretical EROI function; peak oil; global oil; net energy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01581713. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.