IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v35y2010i7p3097-3102.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecast of oil reserves and production in Daqing oilfield of China

Author

Listed:
  • Tang, Xu
  • Zhang, Baosheng
  • Höök, Mikael
  • Feng, Lianyong

Abstract

As China’ largest oilfield, Daqing is of great importance to China, this paper analyzes the status of the Daqing oilfield and forecasts its ultimate recoverable reserves by use of the URR model. The forecast results are presented for three scenarios which show that the ultimate recoverable reserves in Daqing oilfield are 3574.0million tons in the optimistic scenario, 3169.3million in the base case scenario and 3033.3million in the pessimistic scenario, respectively. A system dynamics model is established and the quantitative relationships between variables in the model are determined. Total oil production, remaining recoverable reserves, annual newly discovered reserves, and the degree of reserves recovery before 2060 are simulated under the three scenarios by use of the system dynamics model. The forecast results show that the future oil production in Daqing oilfield will continue declining, under the base case scenario, from 41.6million tons in 2007 to 8.0million tons in 2060. For Chinese policy-makers, it is worth paying attention to the problem of whether oil production in new oilfields can effectively make up for the decline in production of the large, old oilfields.

Suggested Citation

  • Tang, Xu & Zhang, Baosheng & Höök, Mikael & Feng, Lianyong, 2010. "Forecast of oil reserves and production in Daqing oilfield of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 3097-3102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:7:p:3097-3102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.03.043
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544210001726
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2010.03.043?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hirsch, Robert L., 2008. "Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 881-889, February.
    2. Meng, Q.Y. & Bentley, R.W., 2008. "Global oil peaking: Responding to the case for ‘abundant supplies of oil’," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1179-1184.
    3. Fang, Yiping & Zeng, Yong, 2007. "Balancing energy and environment: The effect and perspective of management instruments in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2247-2261.
    4. Gowdy, John & Juliá, Roxana, 2007. "Technology and petroleum exhaustion: Evidence from two mega-oilfields," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1448-1454.
    5. Kahrl, Fredrich & Roland-Holst, David, 2009. "Growth and structural change in China's energy economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 894-903.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abada, Ibrahim & Briat, Vincent & Massol, Olivier, 2013. "Construction of a fuel demand function portraying interfuel substitution, a system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 240-251.
    2. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Tverberg, Gail E., 2013. "An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 542-551.
    3. Tang, Xu & Zhang, Baosheng & Feng, Lianyong & Snowden, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2012. "Net oil exports embodied in China's international trade: An input–output analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 464-471.
    4. Behrang, M.A. & Assareh, E. & Ghalambaz, M. & Assari, M.R. & Noghrehabadi, A.R., 2011. "Forecasting future oil demand in Iran using GSA (Gravitational Search Algorithm)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5649-5654.
    5. Armin Leopold, 2016. "Energy related system dynamic models: a literature review," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 24(1), pages 231-261, March.
    6. Chengpeng Lu & Bing Xue & Chenyu Lu & Ting Wang & Lu Jiang & Zilong Zhang & Wanxia Ren, 2016. "Sustainability Investigation of Resource-Based Cities in Northeastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-16, October.
    7. Bai, Yajie & Hou, Jian & Liu, Yongge & Zhao, Dong & Bing, Shaoxian & Xiao, Wu & Zhao, Wei, 2022. "Energy-consumption calculation and optimization method of integrated system of injection-reservoir-production in high water-cut reservoir," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    8. Scholtens, Bert & Wagenaar, Robert, 2011. "Revisions of international firms’ energy reserves and the reaction of the stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3541-3546.
    9. Assareh, E. & Behrang, M.A. & Assari, M.R. & Ghanbarzadeh, A., 2010. "Application of PSO (particle swarm optimization) and GA (genetic algorithm) techniques on demand estimation of oil in Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 5223-5229.
    10. Xu Tang & Benjamin C. McLellan & Simon Snowden & Baosheng Zhang & Mikael Höök, 2015. "Dilemmas for China: Energy, Economy and Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-13, May.
    11. Wang, Ke & Feng, Lianyong & Wang, Jianliang & Xiong, Yi & Tverberg, Gail E., 2016. "An oil production forecast for China considering economic limits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 586-596.
    12. Bo Xu & Lianyong Feng & William X. Wei & Yan Hu & Jianliang Wang, 2014. "A Preliminary Forecast of the Production Status of China’s Daqing Oil field from the Perspective of EROI," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-21, November.
    13. Xu, Tang & Baosheng, Zhang & Lianyong, Feng & Masri, Marwan & Honarvar, Afshin, 2011. "Economic impacts and challenges of China’s petroleum industry: An input–output analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2905-2911.
    14. Zi Lin & Xiaolei Liu & Ziming Feng, 2020. "Systematic Investigation of Integrating Small Wind Turbines into Power Supply for Hydrocarbon Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Höök, Mikael & Hirsch, Robert & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2262-2272, June.
    2. Ma, Linwei & Liu, Pei & Fu, Feng & Li, Zheng & Ni, Weidou, 2011. "Integrated energy strategy for the sustainable development of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 1143-1154.
    3. Fantazzini, Dean & Höök, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7865-7873.
    4. Zhang, Na & Lior, Noam & Jin, Hongguang, 2011. "The energy situation and its sustainable development strategy in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 3639-3649.
    5. Harvey, L.D.D., 2013. "Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-103.
    6. Wang, Nannan & Chang, Yen-Chiang, 2014. "The evolution of low-carbon development strategies in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 61-70.
    7. Adom, Philip Kofi, 2015. "Business cycle and economic-wide energy intensity: The implications for energy conservation policy in Algeria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 334-350.
    8. Kaivo-oja, J. & Luukkanen, J. & Panula-Ontto, J. & Vehmas, J. & Chen, Y. & Mikkonen, S. & Auffermann, B., 2014. "Are structural change and modernisation leading to convergence in the CO2 economy? Decomposition analysis of China, EU and USA," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 115-125.
    9. Alves, Joana Duarte Ouro & Faria, Weslem Rodrigues, 2024. "Reserves, well drilling and production: Assessing the optimal trajectory of oil extraction for Brazil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu & Verma, Reetu & Liu, Ying, 2012. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption, trade and income: A comparative analysis of China and India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 450-460.
    11. Maqbool, Rashid, 2018. "Efficiency and effectiveness of factors affecting renewable energy projects; an empirical perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 944-956.
    12. Kahrl, Fredrich & Roland-Holst, David & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Past as Prologue? Understanding energy use in post-2002 China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 759-771.
    13. Gesine Bökenkamp & Wan-Jung Chou & Olav Hohmeyer & Wouter Nijs & Alistair Hunt & Anil Markandya, 2010. "Policy Instruments," Chapters, in: Anil Markandya & Andrea Bigano & Roberto Porchia (ed.), The Social Cost of Electricity, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Islam, M.R. & Saidur, R. & Rahim, N.A., 2011. "Assessment of wind energy potentiality at Kudat and Labuan, Malaysia using Weibull distribution function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 985-992.
    15. Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2008. "A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4262-4271, November.
    16. Yang, Guangfei & Li, Xianneng & Wang, Jianliang & Lian, Lian & Ma, Tieju, 2015. "Modeling oil production based on symbolic regression," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 48-61.
    17. Fix, Blair, 2014. "Rethinking Profit: How Redistribution Drives Growth," Working Papers on Capital as Power 2014/02, Capital As Power - Toward a New Cosmology of Capitalism.
    18. Warrilow, David, 2015. "A bumpy road to the top: Statistically defining a peak in oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 81-84.
    19. Zhao, Xiaofan & Li, Huimin & Wu, Liang & Qi, Ye, 2014. "Implementation of energy-saving policies in China: How local governments assisted industrial enterprises in achieving energy-saving targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 170-184.
    20. Zhang, Jiefeng & Bai, Zhipeng & Chang, Victor W.C. & Ding, Xiao, 2011. "Balancing BEC and IAQ in civil buildings during rapid urbanization in China: Regulation, interplay and collaboration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5778-5790, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:7:p:3097-3102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.