IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i10p8240-d1150376.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demand for and Supply of Pulses and Oil Crops in Bangladesh: A Strategic Projection for These Food Item Outlooks by 2030 and 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Shaikh Mohammad Bokhtiar

    (Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council, Dhaka 1215, Bangladesh)

  • Sheikh Md. Fakhrul Islam

    (Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur 1706, Bangladesh)

  • Md. Mosharraf Uddin Molla

    (Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology Division, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council, Dhaka 1215, Bangladesh)

  • Md. Abdus Salam

    (Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology Division, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council, Dhaka 1215, Bangladesh)

  • Md. Abdur Rashid

    (Agricultural Economics Division, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh)

Abstract

The food items, such as pulses and oil crops, are influential means of nutritional security for the people in Bangladesh. Pulses are widely called here as an alternative to meat for poor households. The study aimed to predict productivity and national demand of pulses and oil crops in Bangladesh by 2030 and 2050, minimizing the supply and demand gaps of these crops. Using the ARIMA model developed by Box and Jenkins, the current study projected Bangladesh’s pulse and oil crop demand and supply for the years 2030 and 2050. The projections showed that the total demand for pulses in 2030 will be 17.9 lakh MT and further increased to 19.5 lakh MT in 2050. The deficit in the supply of pulses will be 12.36 lakh MT in 2030 and 9.26 lakh MT in 2050 although the shortage of pulses will disappear as a result of productivity improvements and innovations. Per capita consumption of edible oil in Bangladesh is 20–22 g per day. The majority of domestically produced soybean (5% of total demand) is used in the feed industries, while edible oil from soybean depends on import. The supply of mustard oil is predicted to be in deficit by 0.30 lakh MT in 2030 and 1.68 lakh MT in 2050. Nevertheless, the estimates also warn that supply of these food items could be threatened due to climate changes. In facing future challenges, supportive government policy and substantial investment in research and extension should be given priority for technological innovation and productivity improvement. Government also needs to develop a strategic import substitution policy for higher production of these crop and storage facilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaikh Mohammad Bokhtiar & Sheikh Md. Fakhrul Islam & Md. Mosharraf Uddin Molla & Md. Abdus Salam & Md. Abdur Rashid, 2023. "Demand for and Supply of Pulses and Oil Crops in Bangladesh: A Strategic Projection for These Food Item Outlooks by 2030 and 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:10:p:8240-:d:1150376
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/10/8240/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/10/8240/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karolina Pawlak & Małgorzata Kołodziejczak, 2020. "The Role of Agriculture in Ensuring Food Security in Developing Countries: Considerations in the Context of the Problem of Sustainable Food Production," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Dalila Cervantes-Godoy & Joe Dewbre, 2010. "Economic Importance of Agriculture for Poverty Reduction," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 23, OECD Publishing.
    3. Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Sharma, Bharat R. & Muthuwatta, Lal. & Khan, Z. H., 2014. "Water for food in Bangladesh: outlook to 2030," IWMI Research Reports H046592, International Water Management Institute.
    4. Hossain, Monzur & Yunus, Mohammad, 2016. "Estimates of Per Capita Consumption of Food Grains in Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 39(1-2), pages 103-116, March-Jun.
    5. Hugo Valin & Ronald D. Sands & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Gerald C. Nelson & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Benjamin Bodirsky & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe, 2014. "The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 51-67, January.
    6. Zhou, Yuan & Staatz, John, 2016. "Projected demand and supply for various foods in West Africa: Implications for investments and food policy," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 198-212.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
    2. Mohammad Zarei & Abdolsamad K. Amirkolaei & Jesse T. Trushenski & Wendy M. Sealey & Michael H. Schwarz & Reza Ovissipour, 2022. "Sorghum as a Potential Valuable Aquafeed Ingredient: Nutritional Quality and Digestibility," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Imen Turki Abdelhedi & Sonia Zouari Zouari, 2020. "Agriculture and Food Security in North Africa: a Theoretical and Empirical Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(1), pages 193-210, March.
    4. Yohanes Boni, 2022. "Agricultural Development’s Influence on Rural Poverty Alleviation in the North Buton Regency, Indonesia—The Mediating Role of Farmer Performance," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-14, September.
    5. Animesh K. Gain & Carlo Giupponi & David Benson, 2015. "The water-energy-food (WEF) security nexus: the policy perspective of Bangladesh," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5-6), pages 895-910, September.
    6. Hanna Dudek & Joanna Myszkowska-Ryciak & Agnieszka Wojewódzka-Wiewiórska, 2021. "Profiles of Food Insecurity: Similarities and Differences across Selected CEE Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-19, August.
    7. Susmita Das Riya, 2021. "Impact of industry on agricultural development in Sylhet region of Bangladesh: Farmer’s perception," International Journal of Agricultural Research, Innovation and Technology (IJARIT), IJARIT Research Foundation, vol. 11(2), December.
    8. Siddique, Md. Abu Bakr & Salam , Md. Abdus & Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur, 2020. "Estimating the Demand Elasticity of Rice in Bangladesh: An Application of the Aids Model," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS), vol. 10(03), January.
    9. Lochhead, Kyle & Ghafghazi, Saeed & Havlik, Petr & Forsell, Nicklas & Obersteiner, Michael & Bull, Gary & Mabee, Warren, 2016. "Price trends and volatility scenarios for designing forest sector transformation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 184-191.
    10. Tomich, Thomas P. & Lidder, Preetmoninder & Coley, Mariah & Gollin, Douglas & Meinzen-Dick, Ruth & Webb, Patrick & Carberry, Peter, 2019. "Food and agricultural innovation pathways for prosperity," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 1-15.
    11. Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi & Christoph Bertram & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Valentina Bosetti & Jessica Callen & Jacques Després & Jonathan Doelman & Laurent Drou, 2019. "A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(5), pages 386-396, May.
    12. Neema Ciza Angélique & Vwima Stany & Philippe Lebailly & Hossein Azadi, 2022. "Agricultural Development in the Fight against Poverty: The Case of South Kivu, DR Congo," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, March.
    13. Muhammad Mumtaz Khan & Muhammad Tahir Akram & Rhonda Janke & Rashad Waseem Khan Qadri & Abdullah Mohammed Al-Sadi & Aitazaz A. Farooque, 2020. "Urban Horticulture for Food Secure Cities through and beyond COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-21, November.
    14. SIngh Verma, Juhee & Sharma, Pritee, 2019. "Potential of Organic Farming to Mitigate Climate Change and Increase Small Farmers’ Welfare," MPRA Paper 99994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Shaosheng Jin & Bashiru Mansaray & Xin Jin & Haoyang Li, 2020. "Farmers’ preferences for attributes of rice varieties in Sierra Leone," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(5), pages 1185-1197, October.
    16. Felipe Vásquez & Gibran Vita & Daniel B. Müller, 2018. "Food Security for an Aging and Heavier Population," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-19, October.
    17. Backson Mwangi & Ibrahim Macharia & Eric Bett, 2021. "Ex-post Impact Evaluation of Improved Sorghum Varieties on Poverty Reduction in Kenya: A Counterfactual Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 447-467, April.
    18. Roffeis, Martin & Fitches, Elaine C. & Wakefield, Maureen E. & Almeida, Joana & Alves Valada, Tatiana R. & Devic, Emilie & Koné, N’Golopé & Kenis, Marc & Nacambo, Saidou & Koko, Gabriel K.D. & Mathijs, 2020. "Ex-ante life cycle impact assessment of insect based feed production in West Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    19. Elke Stehfest & Willem-Jan Zeist & Hugo Valin & Petr Havlik & Alexander Popp & Page Kyle & Andrzej Tabeau & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Tomoko Hasegawa & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Katherine Calvin & Jonathan C, 2019. "Key determinants of global land-use projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    20. Baffes,John & Kabundi,Alain Ntumba & Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2018. "The role of major emerging markets in global commodity demand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8495, The World Bank.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:10:p:8240-:d:1150376. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.