IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfpoli/v61y2016icp198-212.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projected demand and supply for various foods in West Africa: Implications for investments and food policy

Author

Listed:
  • Zhou, Yuan
  • Staatz, John

Abstract

This paper (a) summarizes recent evidence of changes in dietary patterns in the 15 ECOWAS countries of West Africa over the past 30years and the forces driving those changes (In this paper, the term “West Africa” refers to the 15 countries that are members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS): Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo); (b) uses expenditure-elasticity estimates derived from budget-consumption studies in 8 of these countries (Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, and Togo) and hypotheses about alternative income growth trajectories to develop scenarios about the evolution of demand for various foods over the period 2010–2040; (c) compares the projected demand growth with projection of production growth in key commodities to identify potential or increasing demand–supply gaps; and (d) derives implications for needed investments and policies regarding different commodities and components of the West African agrifood system, including identifying gaps in the current African Union-led Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development (CAADP) programs. The analysis shows that in absolute terms, production shortfalls relative to demand for starchy staples (particularly rice and wheat) will continue to pose a major challenge for ECOWAS countries. In relative terms, however, imbalances between domestic production and demand will increase more quickly for foods with high income-elasticities of demand, such as meat, dairy products, seafood, fruits and vegetables and vegetable oils. Urban demand will grow two to four times faster than rural demand, depending on the commodity, putting increased pressure on already stressed urban food marketing systems. Substantial variations in supply–demand gaps across countries suggest that more fluid regional trade could help individual countries cope with these challenges. The findings also suggest that the focus of food policies in West Africa, historically on starchy staples (particularly cereals) needs to broaden to include a range of higher-value products for which demand is likely to increase very rapidly in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Yuan & Staatz, John, 2016. "Projected demand and supply for various foods in West Africa: Implications for investments and food policy," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 198-212.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:61:y:2016:i:c:p:198-212
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.04.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919216300185
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.04.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Christophe Maur & Ben Shepherd, 2015. "Connecting Food Staples and Input Markets in West Africa," World Bank Publications - Reports 22276, The World Bank Group.
    2. Delgado, Christopher L. & Miller, Cornelia P. J., 1985. "Changing food patterns in West Africa : Implications for policy research," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 63-74, February.
    3. Farnsworth, Helen C., 1961. "Defects, Uses, and Abuses of National Food Supply and Consumption Data," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 2(3), pages 1-24.
    4. Cohen, Barney, 2004. "Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Current Trends and a Caution Regarding Existing Forecasts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-51, January.
    5. Rogers, Beatrice Lorge & Lowdermilk, Melanee, 1991. "Price policy and food consumption in urban Mali," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 461-473, December.
    6. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Indicators 2011," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2315.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Teklu, T., 1996. "Food demand studies in Sub-Saharan Africa: a survey of empirical evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 479-496, December.
    2. Diagana, Bocar & Akindes, Francis & Savadogo, Kimseyinga & Reardon, Thomas & Staatz, John, 1999. "Effects of the CFA franc devaluation on urban food consumption in West Africa: overview and cross-country comparisons," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 465-478, October.
    3. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "The accumulation of foreign exchange by central banks: Fear of capital mobility?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 409-427.
    4. Frietsch, Rainer & Neuhäusler, Peter & Rothengatter, Oliver, 2012. "Patent Applications – Structures, Trends and Recent Developments," Studien zum deutschen Innovationssystem 8-2012, Expertenkommission Forschung und Innovation (EFI) - Commission of Experts for Research and Innovation, Berlin.
    5. Lise Rakner, 2012. "Foreign Aid and Democratic Consolidation in Zambia," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-016, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Samuel Fosu, 2013. "Banking Competition in Africa: Sub-regional Comparative Studies," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/12, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, revised Jun 2013.
    7. Leonidou, Leonidas C. & Leonidou, Constantinos N. & Fotiadis, Thomas A. & Zeriti, Athina, 2013. "Resources and capabilities as drivers of hotel environmental marketing strategy: Implications for competitive advantage and performance," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 94-110.
    8. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2012. "IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 5-41, February.
    9. Clements, Tom & Suon, Seng & Wilkie, David S. & Milner-Gulland, E.J., 2014. "Impacts of Protected Areas on Local Livelihoods in Cambodia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(S1), pages 125-134.
    10. Susanna M Makela & Rakhi Dandona & T R Dilip & Lalit Dandona, 2013. "Social Sector Expenditure and Child Mortality in India: A State-Level Analysis from 1997 to 2009," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-10, February.
    11. Feldmann, Horst, 2012. "Banking deregulation around the world, 1970s to 2000s: The impact on unemployment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 26-42.
    12. Farla, Kristine, 2012. "Institutions and credit," MERIT Working Papers 2012-038, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. Ariel BenYishay & A. Mushfiq Mobarak, 2014. "Social Learning and Communication," NBER Working Papers 20139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. World Bank, 2011. "Uganda - Demography and Economic Growth in Uganda," World Bank Publications - Reports 2811, The World Bank Group.
    15. Horst Feldmann, 2013. "Technological unemployment in industrial countries," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 1099-1126, November.
    16. Sanna, Aimaro & Dri, Marco & Hall, Matthew R. & Maroto-Valer, Mercedes, 2012. "Waste materials for carbon capture and storage by mineralisation (CCSM) – A UK perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 545-554.
    17. Ioana Pop & Erik Ingen & Wim Oorschot, 2013. "Inequality, Wealth and Health: Is Decreasing Income Inequality the Key to Create Healthier Societies?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 1025-1043, September.
    18. Malik, Zahra & Zaman, Khalid, 2013. "Macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1103-1123.
    19. Wang, Bo & Li, Fan & Feng, Shuyi & Shen, Tong, 2020. "Transfer of development rights, farmland preservation, and economic growth: a case study of Chongqing’s land quotas trading program," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    20. Jafari Samimi, Ahmad & Ghaderi, Saman & Hosseinzadeh, Ramezan & Nademi, Younes, 2012. "Openness and inflation: New empirical panel data evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 573-577.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:61:y:2016:i:c:p:198-212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.