IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i17p10911-d903492.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Control in Optimization of Cascade Hydropower: Considering Water Abandonment Risk Probability

Author

Listed:
  • Xinyi Zhang

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Guohua Fang

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Jian Ye

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Jin Liu

    (Shanghai Municipal Engineering Design Institute (Group) Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200092, China)

  • Xin Wen

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Chengjun Wu

    (Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Zhengzhou 450003, China)

Abstract

Water abandonment risk caused by inflow uncertainties is a major problem in cascade hydropower generation operation and water resources management. In this study, we propose a theoretical estimation method (TEM) to calculate water abandonment risk probability (WARP) utilizing sample inflow data and historical forecast errors. The method analyzes the differences in risk quantification between the head hydropower station and downstream stations, and the corresponding probability formula is provided. Then, a short-term optimal operation model of cascade hydropower stations considering the additional WARP water level constraints is constructed to dynamically control water level risk. The Dahuashui (DHS)-Geliqiao (GLQ) cascade hydropower stations in the Wujiang River Basin of China is investigated as a case study. The results show that compared with the historical scheme, the total amount of water abandonment of DHS, GLQ and DHS-GLQ in the WARP optimal scheme decreases by 11.69%, 47.69% and 28.27%, respectively, and the flood peak of GLQ is reduced by 21.6%. In conclusion, compared with the traditional control approach and actual operation processes, the proposed risk control in optimization of cascade hydropower considering WARP can improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency of cascade hydropower systems by reducing the occurrence of water abandonment and thereby increase generation profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinyi Zhang & Guohua Fang & Jian Ye & Jin Liu & Xin Wen & Chengjun Wu, 2022. "Risk Control in Optimization of Cascade Hydropower: Considering Water Abandonment Risk Probability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-14, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:17:p:10911-:d:903492
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/17/10911/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/17/10911/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu Yuan & Jianzhong Zhou, 2017. "Self-Optimization System Dynamics Simulation of Real-Time Short Term Cascade Hydropower System Considering Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(7), pages 2127-2140, May.
    2. Tan, Qiaofeng & Wen, Xin & Sun, Yuanliang & Lei, Xiaohui & Wang, Zhenni & Qin, Guanghua, 2021. "Evaluation of the risk and benefit of the complementary operation of the large wind-photovoltaic-hydropower system considering forecast uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    3. Qiao-feng Tan & Guo-hua Fang & Xin Wen & Xiao-hui Lei & Xu Wang & Chao Wang & Yi Ji, 2020. "Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming for Hydropower Generation Operation Based on Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(5), pages 1589-1607, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ding, Ziyu & Wen, Xin & Tan, Qiaofeng & Yang, Tiantian & Fang, Guohua & Lei, Xiaohui & Zhang, Yu & Wang, Hao, 2021. "A forecast-driven decision-making model for long-term operation of a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    2. Amir Hatamkhani & Mojtaba Shourian & Ali Moridi, 2021. "Optimal Design and Operation of a Hydropower Reservoir Plant Using a WEAP-Based Simulation–Optimization Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(5), pages 1637-1652, March.
    3. Zhou, Yu & Li, Zhengshuo & Wang, Guangrui, 2021. "Study on leveraging wind farms' robust reactive power range for uncertain power system reactive power optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    4. Zhou, Yuzhou & Zhao, Jiexing & Zhai, Qiaozhu, 2021. "100% renewable energy: A multi-stage robust scheduling approach for cascade hydropower system with wind and photovoltaic power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    5. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Xia, Qian & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Weifeng & Zheng, Yalian & Han, Dongyang & Xia, Jun, 2023. "An analytical method to evaluate curtailment of hydro–photovoltaic hybrid energy systems and its implication under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    6. Zhang, Yusheng & Ma, Chao & Yang, Yang & Pang, Xiulan & Lian, Jijian & Wang, Xin, 2022. "Capacity configuration and economic evaluation of a power system integrating hydropower, solar, and wind," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    7. Li, Xudong & Yang, Weijia & Liao, Yiwen & Zhang, Shushu & Zheng, Yang & Zhao, Zhigao & Tang, Maojia & Cheng, Yongguang & Liu, Pan, 2024. "Short-term risk-management for hydro-wind-solar hybrid energy system considering hydropower part-load operating characteristics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    8. Tan, Qiaofeng & Nie, Zhuang & Wen, Xin & Su, Huaying & Fang, Guohua & Zhang, Ziyi, 2024. "Complementary scheduling rules for hybrid pumped storage hydropower-photovoltaic power system reconstructing from conventional cascade hydropower stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    9. Zhang, Yusheng & Ma, Chao & Yang, Yang & Pang, Xiulan & Liu, Lu & Lian, Jijian, 2021. "Study on short-term optimal operation of cascade hydro-photovoltaic hybrid systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    10. Liu Yuan & Jianzhong Zhou & Zijun Mai & Yuanzheng Li, 2017. "Random Fuzzy Optimization Model for Short-Term Hydropower Scheduling Considering Uncertainty of Power Load," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(9), pages 2713-2728, July.
    11. Wang, Zizhao & Li, Yang & Wu, Feng & Wu, Jiawei & Shi, Linjun & Lin, Keman, 2024. "Multi-objective day-ahead scheduling of cascade hydropower-photovoltaic complementary system with pumping installation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    12. Hammerschmitt, Bruno Knevitz & Guarda, Fernando Guilherme Kaehler & Lucchese, Felipe Cirolini & Abaide, Alzenira da Rosa, 2022. "Complementary thermal energy generation associated with renewable energies using Artificial Intelligence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).
    13. Shu, Xingsheng & Ding, Wei & Peng, Yong & Wang, Ziru, 2024. "Value of long-term inflow forecast for hydropower operation: A case study in a low forecast precision region," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    14. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Feng, Maoyuan & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Luo, Xinran & Liu, Weibo & Xu, Weifeng & Huang, Kangdi & Xia, Jun, 2023. "Complementary operation with wind and photovoltaic power induces the decrease in hydropower efficiency," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    15. Jin, Xiaoyu & Liu, Benxi & Liao, Shengli & Cheng, Chuntian & Yan, Zhiyu, 2022. "A Wasserstein metric-based distributionally robust optimization approach for reliable-economic equilibrium operation of hydro-wind-solar energy systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 204-219.
    16. Ma, Chao & Liu, Lu, 2022. "Optimal capacity configuration of hydro-wind-PV hybrid system and its coordinative operation rules considering the UHV transmission and reservoir operation requirements," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 637-653.
    17. Jiang, Jianhua & Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Huang, Qiang & Guo, Yi & Chang, Jianxia & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "Refining long-term operation of large hydro–photovoltaic–wind hybrid systems by nesting response functions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 359-371.
    18. Rosalva Mendoza Ramírez & Maritza Liliana Arganis Juárez & Ramón Domínguez Mora & Luis Daniel Padilla Morales & Óscar Arturo Fuentes Mariles & Alejandro Mendoza Reséndiz & Eliseo Carrizosa Elizondo & , 2021. "Operation Policies through Dynamic Programming and Genetic Algorithms, for a Reservoir with Irrigation and Water Supply Uses," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(5), pages 1573-1586, March.
    19. Liu, Yuan & Ji, Changming & Wang, Yi & Zhang, Yanke & Jiang, Zhiqiang & Ma, Qiumei & Hou, Xiaoning, 2023. "Effect of the quality of streamflow forecasts on the operation of cascade hydropower stations using stochastic optimization models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    20. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Xia, Jun & Ming, Bo & Cheng, Lei & Chen, Jie & Xie, Kang & Liu, Zheyuan & Li, Xiao, 2022. "Contribution of complementary operation in adapting to climate change impacts on a large-scale wind–solar–hydro system: A case study in the Yalong River Basin, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:17:p:10911-:d:903492. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.