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Changing Climatic Scenarios Anticipate Dwindling of Suitable Habitats for Endemic Species of Himalaya—Predictions of Ensemble Modelling Using Aconitum heterophyllum as a Model Plant

Author

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  • Zishan Ahmad Wani

    (Department of Botany, Baba Ghulam Shah Badshah University, Rajouri 185234, Jammu and Kashmir, India)

  • Qamer Ridwan

    (Department of Botany, Baba Ghulam Shah Badshah University, Rajouri 185234, Jammu and Kashmir, India)

  • Sajid Khan

    (Department of Botany, Baba Ghulam Shah Badshah University, Rajouri 185234, Jammu and Kashmir, India)

  • Shreekar Pant

    (Centre for Biodiversity Studies, Baba Ghulam Shah Badshah University, Rajouri 185234, Jammu and Kashmir, India)

  • Sazada Siddiqui

    (Department of Biology, College of Science, King Khalid University, Abha 61413, Saudi Arabia)

  • Mahmoud Moustafa

    (Department of Biology, College of Science, King Khalid University, Abha 61413, Saudi Arabia)

  • Ahmed Ezzat Ahmad

    (Department of Biology, College of Science, King Khalid University, Abha 61413, Saudi Arabia
    Department of Theriogenology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, South Valley University, Qena 83523, Egypt)

  • Habab M. Yassin

    (Department of Biology, College of Science, King Khalid University, Abha 61413, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

In the changing climatic conditions, species distribution modelling is considered as a key strategy to estimate the probable influence of climatic variabilities on the habitat ranges of any species. The present study explores the potential distribution of Aconitum heterophyllum under current and future climatic scenarios. The results unfold that the distribution of this endemic species is governed significantly by bio12, i.e., Annual Precipitation. Ensemble modelling predicted that higher altitudes of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh are suitable habitats for A. heterophyllum . However, the future climatic modelling revealed that there will be a significant decrease in the suitable habitats for A. heterophyllum . Most of the shrinkage of habitats is predicted to occur within the time period of 2050, which seriously challenges their survival. The present study recommends an urgent need to frame a pertinent conservation and management policy for Aconitum heterophyllum and will act as a framework for planning such a policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Zishan Ahmad Wani & Qamer Ridwan & Sajid Khan & Shreekar Pant & Sazada Siddiqui & Mahmoud Moustafa & Ahmed Ezzat Ahmad & Habab M. Yassin, 2022. "Changing Climatic Scenarios Anticipate Dwindling of Suitable Habitats for Endemic Species of Himalaya—Predictions of Ensemble Modelling Using Aconitum heterophyllum as a Model Plant," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-11, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:14:p:8491-:d:860154
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
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    1. Sajid Khan & Kailash S. Gaira & Mohd Asgher & Susheel Verma & Shreekar Pant & Dinesh K. Agrawala & Saud Alamri & Manzer H. Siddiqui & Mahipal Singh Kesawat, 2023. "Temperature Induced Flowering Phenology of Olea ferruginea Royle: A Climate Change Effect," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, April.

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