IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v408y2019ic4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts and uncertainties of climate/CO2 change on net primary productivity in Xinjiang, China (2000–2014): A modelling approach

Author

Listed:
  • Fang, Xia
  • Chen, Zhi
  • Guo, Xulin
  • Zhu, Shihua
  • Liu, Tong
  • Li, Chaofan
  • He, Biao

Abstract

Dryland in Xinjiang, China has been threatened in recent decades by rapid climate change. However, due to large uncertainties in spatial climate datasets, the impacts of climate change and rising CO2 on net primary productivity (NPP) in Xinjiang have remained unclear. These uncertainties in climate will inevitably lead to uncertainties in model estimated NPP in Xinjiang. The uncertainties can be assessed by running an Arid Ecosystem Model (AEM) using multiple climate datasets. Such an approach allows to disentangle the relative contributions of individual climate factors on NPP change using numerical simulations and factorial analysis. The average annual NPP for Xinjiang from 2000 to 2014 was 155.90±2.74 g·C/(m2·year), 189.99±1.80 g·C/(m2·year), 213.04±8.93 g·C/(m2·year) by using the MERRA, ERA-Interim and CFSR datasets respectively to drive AEM. Our multiple simulations show a consistent temporal pattern of the regional NPP during 2000–2014 that increased during 2008–2011, and decreased during 2005–2006 and 2013–2014. However, we found large uncertainties in the spatial pattern of NPP change during this time, particularly in the Taklimakan Desert and northern Xinjiang (except for the Tacheng where NPP increased). All simulations indicated that areas surrounding the Taklamakan Desert and ecosystems at high latitude (>47°) and northwestern Xinjiang were dominated by precipitation change. However, there are large uncertainties in the dominant climate driver in other areas. To assess uncertainties in ecosystem NPP assessment, efforts should be made to improve the confidence in climate data in the northern Xinjiang. This can be achieved by establishing more rain gauges.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang, Xia & Chen, Zhi & Guo, Xulin & Zhu, Shihua & Liu, Tong & Li, Chaofan & He, Biao, 2019. "Impacts and uncertainties of climate/CO2 change on net primary productivity in Xinjiang, China (2000–2014): A modelling approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 408(C), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:408:y:2019:i:c:4
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108742
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380019302509
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108742?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Chi & Wu, Jianguo & Grimm, Nancy B. & McHale, Melissa & Buyantuyev, Alexander, 2013. "A hierarchical patch mosaic ecosystem model for urban landscapes: Model development and evaluation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 81-100.
    2. Li, Chaofan & Zhang, Chi & Luo, Geping & Chen, Xi, 2013. "Modeling the carbon dynamics of the dryland ecosystems in Xinjiang, China from 1981 to 2007—The spatiotemporal patterns and climate controls," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 267(C), pages 148-157.
    3. Chunbo Chen & Chi Zhang, 2017. "Projecting the CO 2 and Climatic Change Effects on the Net Primary Productivity of the Urban Ecosystems in Phoenix, AZ in the 21st Century under Multiple RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) Sce," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-20, August.
    4. Zhang, Chi & Li, Chaofan & Luo, Geping & Chen, Xi, 2013. "Modeling plant structure and its impacts on carbon and water cycles of the Central Asian arid ecosystem in the context of climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 267(C), pages 158-179.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qiuxuan Xu & Jinmei Li & Sumeng Zhang & Quanzhi Yuan & Ping Ren, 2024. "Spatio-Temporal Changes and Driving Mechanisms of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2022," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-23, August.
    2. Peng Cai & Chaofan Li & Geping Luo & Chi Zhang & Friday Uchenna Ochege & Steven Caluwaerts & Lesley De Cruz & Rozemien De Troch & Sara Top & Piet Termonia & Philippe De Maeyer, 2020. "The Responses of the Ecosystems in the Tianshan North Slope under Multiple Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios in the Middle of the 21st Century," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhu, Shihua & Fang, Xia & Cao, Liangzhong & Hang, Xin & Xie, Xiaoping & Sun, Liangxiao & Li, Yachun, 2023. "Multivariate drives and their interactive effects on the ratio of transpiration to evapotranspiration over Central Asia ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 478(C).
    2. Chaofan Li & Qifei Han & Geping Luo & Chengyi Zhao & Shoubo Li & Yuangang Wang & Dongsheng Yu, 2018. "Effects of Cropland Conversion and Climate Change on Agrosystem Carbon Balance of China’s Dryland: A Typical Watershed Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, November.
    3. Peng Cai & Chaofan Li & Geping Luo & Chi Zhang & Friday Uchenna Ochege & Steven Caluwaerts & Lesley De Cruz & Rozemien De Troch & Sara Top & Piet Termonia & Philippe De Maeyer, 2020. "The Responses of the Ecosystems in the Tianshan North Slope under Multiple Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios in the Middle of the 21st Century," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Xiuliang Yuan & Jie Bai, 2018. "Future Projected Changes in Local Evapotranspiration Coupled with Temperature and Precipitation Variation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-14, September.
    5. Chunbo Chen & Chi Zhang, 2017. "Projecting the CO 2 and Climatic Change Effects on the Net Primary Productivity of the Urban Ecosystems in Phoenix, AZ in the 21st Century under Multiple RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) Sce," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Li, Chaofan & Zhang, Chi & Luo, Geping & Chen, Xi, 2013. "Modeling the carbon dynamics of the dryland ecosystems in Xinjiang, China from 1981 to 2007—The spatiotemporal patterns and climate controls," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 267(C), pages 148-157.
    7. Qidong Yang & Hongchao Zuo & Weidong Li, 2016. "Land Surface Model and Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Based on the Model-Optimization Method for Improving Soil Moisture Simulation in a Semi-Arid Region," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-17, March.
    8. Ping Liu & Xi Chen & Chi Zhang & Geping Luo & Ping Liu & Xi Chen & Chi Zhang & Geping Luo & Xi Chen & Chi Zhang & Geping Luo, 2019. "Remote Sensing Monitoring Shows that Climate Change has a Significant Impact on Vegetation Ecosystem in Central Asia," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 17(3), pages 81-87, February.
    9. Haoyang Du & Chen Zhou & Haoqing Tang & Xiaolong Jin & Dengshuai Chen & Penghui Jiang & Manchun Li, 2021. "Simulation and estimation of future precipitation changes in arid regions: a case study of Xinjiang, Northwest China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-21, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:408:y:2019:i:c:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.