IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i11p3028-d235177.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatio-Temporal Pattern Change of Winter Wheat Production and Its Implications in the North China Plain

Author

Listed:
  • Zemin Zhang

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Changhe Lu

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

Abstract

The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important winter wheat production region and an area of water shortage in China. The stability of winter wheat ( T. aestivum L .) production in spatial pattern and the sustainability of water resources have been a major policy concern in China. This study explored the barycenter shift and change trends of wheat total production during 1998–2015, using methods of barycenter model, Sen’s slope, and Mann Kendall test, and analyzed the influence of external factors and the response of water resources. Results indicated that the barycenter of wheat production moved southwards by 115.16 km during 1998–2015, with an average speed of 6.77 km/year. For the entire NCP, the total production showed phased changes during the study period: It decreased during 1998–2003, and then continuously increased during 2004–2015. Of the wheat production increase in the NCP, yield increase and sown area expansion averagely contributed 64.5% and 35.5%, respectively, and the contribution proportion of yield increase continuously increased since 2003. At county level, total wheat production showed a significant increase and decrease trend in 87 and 29 counties, mainly distributed in the southern and northern NCP, respectively. The increase of total production at county level was mainly contributed by yield growth in the southern NCP, while the decrease in the north was due to the reduction of sown area to great extent. The southward shift was jointly resulted by the spatial variation of input factors, benefit, and water prices. These spatial pattern changes alleviated the water pressure in the north region to some extent, in the case of ensuring the production increase of winter wheat. Therefore, the current spatial shift should be continuously promoted in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Zemin Zhang & Changhe Lu, 2019. "Spatio-Temporal Pattern Change of Winter Wheat Production and Its Implications in the North China Plain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-14, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:11:p:3028-:d:235177
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/11/3028/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/11/3028/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xu, Yueqing & Mo, Xingguo & Cai, Yunlong & Li, Xiubin, 2005. "Analysis on groundwater table drawdown by land use and the quest for sustainable water use in the Hebei Plain in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 38-53, July.
    2. Sun, Hongyong & Zhang, Xiying & Liu, Xiujing & Liu, Xiuwei & Shao, Liwei & Chen, Suying & Wang, Jintao & Dong, Xinliang, 2019. "Impact of different cropping systems and irrigation schedules on evapotranspiration, grain yield and groundwater level in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 202-209.
    3. Ying Liu & Chenggang Wang & Zeng Tang & Zhibiao Nan, 2017. "Farmland Rental and Productivity of Wheat and Maize: An Empirical Study in Gansu, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, September.
    4. Wu, Dong & Fang, Shibo & Li, Xuan & He, Di & Zhu, Yongchao & Yang, Zaiqiang & Xu, Jiaxin & Wu, Yingjie, 2019. "Spatial-temporal variation in irrigation water requirement for the winter wheat-summer maize rotation system since the 1980s on the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 78-86.
    5. Buch, Claudia M. & Kokta, Robert M. & Piazolo, Daniel, 2003. "Foreign direct investment in Europe: Is there redirection from the South to the East?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 94-109, March.
    6. Erling Li & Ken Coates & Xiaojian Li & Xinyue Ye & Mark Leipnik, 2017. "Analyzing Agricultural Agglomeration in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-19, February.
    7. Wang, Jieyong & Zhang, Ziwen & Liu, Yansui, 2018. "Spatial shifts in grain production increases in China and implications for food security," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 204-213.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zemin Zhang & Changhe Lu, 2020. "Clustering Analysis of Soybean Production to Understand its Spatiotemporal Dynamics in the North China Plain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-15, July.
    2. Yaqun Liu & Changhe Lu, 2021. "Quantifying Grass Coverage Trends to Identify the Hot Plots of Grassland Degradation in the Tibetan Plateau during 2000–2019," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Wang, Xingwang & Lei, Huimin & Li, Jiadi & Huo, Zailin & Zhang, Yongqiang & Qu, Yanping, 2023. "Estimating evapotranspiration and yield of wheat and maize croplands through a remote sensing-based model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    4. Xu, Ruixuan & Zhao, Haiming & Liu, Guibo & Li, Yuan & Li, Shoujiao & Zhang, Yingjun & Liu, Nan & Ma, Lei, 2022. "Alfalfa and silage maize intercropping provides comparable productivity and profitability with lower environmental impacts than wheat–maize system in the North China plain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zemin Zhang & Changhe Lu, 2020. "Clustering Analysis of Soybean Production to Understand its Spatiotemporal Dynamics in the North China Plain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-15, July.
    2. Ren, Pinpin & Huang, Feng & Li, Baoguo, 2022. "Spatiotemporal patterns of water consumption and irrigation requirements of wheat-maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China and options of their reduction," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    3. Andrea Zaghini, 2006. "Commercial Specialisation in the Countries of Central-Eastern Europe," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 3, July.
    4. Shixiong Song & Siyuan Zhao & Ye Zhang & Yongxi Ma, 2023. "Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Inputs in China over the Past Three Decades," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-12, April.
    5. Saime Kayam & Alexandr Yabrukov & Mehtap Hisarciklilar, 2013. "What Causes the Regional Disparity of FDI in Russia? A Spatial Analysis," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(1), pages 63-78, April.
    6. Fathi Abid & Slah Bahloul, 2010. "Selected MENA Countries’ Attractiveness to G7 Investors," Working Papers 531, Economic Research Forum, revised 07 Jan 2010.
    7. Cao, Jianjun & Wei, Chen & Adamowski, Jan F. & Zhou, Junju & Liu, Chunfang & Zhu, Guofeng & Dong, Xiaogang & Zhang, Xiaofang & Zhao, Huijun & Feng, Qi, 2020. "Could arid and semi-arid abandoned lands prove ecologically or economically valuable if they afford greater soil organic carbon storage than afforested lands in China’s Loess Plateau?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    8. Carstensen, Kai & Toubal, Farid, 2004. "Foreign direct investment in Central and Eastern European countries: a dynamic panel analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 3-22, March.
    9. Yu, Zhenning & She, Shuoqi & Xia, Chuyu & Luo, Jiaojiao, 2023. "How to solve the dilemma of China’s land fallow policy: Application of voluntary bidding mode in the Yangtze River Delta of China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    10. Barrell, Ray & Nahhas, Abdulkader, 2018. "Economic integration and bilateral FDI stocks: the impacts of NAFTA and the EU," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90372, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Jian, Yuqing & Liu, Zhengjia & Gong, Jianzhou, 2022. "Response of landscape dynamics to socio-economic development and biophysical setting across the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China and its implications for regional sustainable land management," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    12. Liu, Yansui & Zhou, Yang, 2021. "Reflections on China's food security and land use policy under rapid urbanization," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    13. Chen, Xin & Jiang, Li & Zhang, Guoliang & Meng, Lijun & Pan, Zhihua & Lun, Fei & An, Pingli, 2021. "Green-depressing cropping system: A referential land use practice for fallow to ensure a harmonious human-land relationship in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    14. Li, Xiaoliang & Wu, Kening & Yang, Qijun & Hao, Shiheng & Feng, Zhe & Ma, Jinliang, 2023. "Quantitative assessment of cultivated land use intensity in Heilongjiang Province, China, 2001–2015," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    15. Yiru Wang & Honggang Lu & Yuge Chen & Peiwen Yang & Xiangbo Cheng & Fangting Xie, 2023. "The Impact of Farmland Management Rights Mortgage Loan on the Agri-Food Industrial Agglomeration: Case of Hubei Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, July.
    16. Yazhu Wang & Hui Zou & Xuejun Duan & Lingqing Wang, 2022. "Coordinated Evolution and Influencing Factors of Population and Economy in the Yangtze River Economic Belt," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-19, November.
    17. Siyan Zeng & Fengwu Zhu & Fu Chen & Man Yu & Shaoliang Zhang & Yongjun Yang, 2018. "Assessing the Impacts of Land Consolidation on Agricultural Technical Efficiency of Producers: A Survey from Jiangsu Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, July.
    18. Wang, Yafei & He, Yao & Fan, Jie & Olsson, Lennart & Scown, Murray, 2024. "Balancing urbanization, agricultural production and ecological integrity: A cross-scale landscape functional and structural approach in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    19. Liang Zhai & Xianghui Gu & Yajing Feng & Dongqing Wu & Tengbo Wang, 2021. "Use of Remote Sensing to Assess the Water-Saving Effect of Winter Wheat Fallow," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-14, September.
    20. Yuhuan Sun & Qian Li & Ting Chen & Xiaoai Jia, 2015. "Dynamic Factor Analysis of Trends in Temporal–Spatial Patterns of China’s Coal Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-17, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:11:p:3028-:d:235177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.