IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v92y2012icp26-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting natural gas consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Soldo, Božidar

Abstract

Publishing papers in the area of forecasting natural gas consumption has begun in the middle of last century and led to a tremendous surge in research activities in the past decade. This paper presents a state-of-the-art survey of forecasting natural gas consumption. Purpose of this paper is to provide analysis and synthesis of published research in this area from beginning to the end of 2010, insights on applied area, used data, models and tools to achieve usable results, in order to be helpful base for future researchers.

Suggested Citation

  • Soldo, Božidar, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 26-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:92:y:2012:i:c:p:26-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.11.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261911006982
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.11.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Lon-Mu & Lin, Maw-Wen, 1991. "Forecasting residential consumption of natural gas using monthly and quarterly time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 3-16, May.
    2. Siemek, Jakub & Nagy, Stanislaw & Rychlicki, Stanislaw, 2003. "Estimation of natural-gas consumption in Poland based on the logistic-curve interpretation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(1-2), pages 1-7, May.
    3. Sanchez-Ubeda, Eugenio Fco. & Berzosa, Ana, 2007. "Modeling and forecasting industrial end-use natural gas consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 710-742, July.
    4. Ernst R. Berndt & G. Campbell Watkins, 1977. "Demand for Natural Gas: Residential and Commercial Markets in Ontario and British Columbia," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(1), pages 97-111, February.
    5. Yoo, Seung-Hoon & Lim, Hea-Jin & Kwak, Seung-Jun, 2009. "Estimating the residential demand function for natural gas in Seoul with correction for sample selection bias," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 460-465, April.
    6. Azadeh, A. & Asadzadeh, S.M. & Ghanbari, A., 2010. "An adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system for short-term natural gas demand estimation: Uncertain and complex environments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1529-1536, March.
    7. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
    8. Sailor, David J. & Muñoz, J.Ricardo, 1997. "Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the U.S.A.—Methodology and results for eight states," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 987-998.
    9. Douglas B. Reynolds & Marek Kolodziej, 2009. "North American Natural Gas Supply Forecast: The Hubbert Method Including the Effects of Institutions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-38, May.
    10. Herbert, John H. & Sitzer, Scott & Eades-Pryor, Yvonne, 1987. "A statistical evaluation of aggregate monthly industrial demand for natural gas in the U.S.A," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 12(12), pages 1233-1238.
    11. Vondrácek, Jirí & Pelikán, Emil & Konár, Ondrej & Cermáková, Jana & Eben, Krystof & Malý, Marek & Brabec, Marek, 2008. "A statistical model for the estimation of natural gas consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(5), pages 362-370, May.
    12. Maggio, G. & Cacciola, G., 2009. "A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4761-4770, November.
    13. Brabec, Marek & Konár, Ondrej & Pelikán, Emil & Malý, Marek, 2008. "A nonlinear mixed effects model for the prediction of natural gas consumption by individual customers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 659-678.
    14. Jiang, BinBin & Wenying, Chen & Yuefeng, Yu & Lemin, Zeng & Victor, David, 2008. "The future of natural gas consumption in Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai: An assessment utilizing MARKAL," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3286-3299, September.
    15. Lee, Ray-Shine & Singh, Nirvikar, 1994. "Patterns in Residential Gas and Electricity Consumption: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 233-241, April.
    16. Gutiérrez, R. & Nafidi, A. & Gutiérrez Sánchez, R., 2005. "Forecasting total natural-gas consumption in Spain by using the stochastic Gompertz innovation diffusion model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 115-124, February.
    17. Beierlein, James G & Dunn, James W & McConnon, James C, Jr, 1981. "The Demand for Electricity and Natural Gas in the Northeastern United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 403-408, August.
    18. S. M. Tinic & B. M. Harnden & C. T. L. Janssen, 1973. "Estimation of Rural Demand for Natural Gas," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(4-Part-II), pages 604-616, December.
    19. Aydinalp-Koksal, Merih & Ugursal, V. Ismet, 2008. "Comparison of neural network, conditional demand analysis, and engineering approaches for modeling end-use energy consumption in the residential sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(4), pages 271-296, April.
    20. Durmayaz, Ahmet & Kadıoǧlu, Mikdat & Şen, Zekai, 2000. "An application of the degree-hours method to estimate the residential heating energy requirement and fuel consumption in Istanbul," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1245-1256.
    21. Marek Brabec & Ondřej Konár & Marek Malý & Emil Pelikán & Jiří Vondráček, 2009. "A statistical model for natural gas standardized load profiles," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 58(1), pages 123-139, February.
    22. Forouzanfar, Mehdi & Doustmohammadi, Ali & Menhaj, M. Bagher & Hasanzadeh, Samira, 2010. "Modeling and estimation of the natural gas consumption for residential and commercial sectors in Iran," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 268-274, January.
    23. Sarak, H & Satman, A, 2003. "The degree-day method to estimate the residential heating natural gas consumption in Turkey: a case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 929-939.
    24. Tahat, M. A. & Al-Hinai, H. & Probert, S. D., 2002. "Performance of a low-energy-consumption house experiencing a Mediterranean climate," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 1-13, January.
    25. Thaler, Marko & Grabec, Igor & Poredoš, Alojz, 2005. "Prediction of energy consumption and risk of excess demand in a distribution system," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 46-53.
    26. Huntington, Hillard G., 2007. "Industrial natural gas consumption in the United States: An empirical model for evaluating future trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 743-759, July.
    27. Potocnik, Primoz & Thaler, Marko & Govekar, Edvard & Grabec, Igor & Poredos, Alojz, 2007. "Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4271-4282, August.
    28. repec:bla:ecorec:v:72:y:1996:i:219:p:319-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jean Gaston Tamba & Salom Ndjakomo Essiane & Emmanuel Flavian Sapnken & Francis Djanna Koffi & Jean Luc Nsouand l & Bozidar Soldo & Donatien Njomo, 2018. "Forecasting Natural Gas: A Literature Survey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 216-249.
    2. Potočnik, Primož & Soldo, Božidar & Šimunović, Goran & Šarić, Tomislav & Jeromen, Andrej & Govekar, Edvard, 2014. "Comparison of static and adaptive models for short-term residential natural gas forecasting in Croatia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 94-103.
    3. Sen, Doruk & Günay, M. Erdem & Tunç, K.M. Murat, 2019. "Forecasting annual natural gas consumption using socio-economic indicators for making future policies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1106-1118.
    4. Szoplik, Jolanta, 2015. "Forecasting of natural gas consumption with artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 208-220.
    5. Ravnik, J. & Hriberšek, M., 2019. "A method for natural gas forecasting and preliminary allocation based on unique standard natural gas consumption profiles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 149-162.
    6. Azadeh, A. & Asadzadeh, S.M. & Saberi, M. & Nadimi, V. & Tajvidi, A. & Sheikalishahi, M., 2011. "A Neuro-fuzzy-stochastic frontier analysis approach for long-term natural gas consumption forecasting and behavior analysis: The cases of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and UAE," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3850-3859.
    7. Ayşe Özmen, 2023. "Sparse regression modeling for short- and long‐term natural gas demand prediction," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 322(2), pages 921-946, March.
    8. Azadeh, A. & Asadzadeh, S.M. & Mirseraji, G.H. & Saberi, M., 2015. "An emotional learning-neuro-fuzzy inference approach for optimum training and forecasting of gas consumption estimation models with cognitive data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 47-63.
    9. Ergun Yukseltan & Ahmet Yucekaya & Ayse Humeyra Bilge & Esra Agca Aktunc, 2020. "Forecasting Models for Daily Natural Gas Consumption Considering Periodic Variations and Demand Segregation," Papers 2003.13385, arXiv.org.
    10. Bianco, Vincenzo & Scarpa, Federico & Tagliafico, Luca A., 2014. "Scenario analysis of nonresidential natural gas consumption in Italy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 392-403.
    11. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    12. Askari, S. & Montazerin, N. & Zarandi, M.H. Fazel, 2015. "Forecasting semi-dynamic response of natural gas networks to nodal gas consumptions using genetic fuzzy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 252-266.
    13. Ahmet Goncu & Mehmet Oguz Karahan & Tolga Umut Kuzubas, 2019. "Forecasting Daily Residential Natural Gas Consumption: A Dynamic Temperature Modelling Approach," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 1-22.
    14. Payne, James E. & Loomis, David G. & Wilson, Renardo, 2011. "Residential Natural Gas Demand in Illinois: Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 41(2), pages 1-10.
    15. Kostakis, Ioannis & Lolos, Sarantis & Sardianou, Eleni, 2021. "Residential natural gas demand: Assessing the evidence from Greece using pseudo-panels, 2012–2019," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    16. Kovačič, Miha & Šarler, Božidar, 2014. "Genetic programming prediction of the natural gas consumption in a steel plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 273-284.
    17. Zhu, L. & Li, M.S. & Wu, Q.H. & Jiang, L., 2015. "Short-term natural gas demand prediction based on support vector regression with false neighbours filtered," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 428-436.
    18. Mustafa Akpinar & Nejat Yumusak, 2016. "Year Ahead Demand Forecast of City Natural Gas Using Seasonal Time Series Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-17, September.
    19. Yukseltan, Ergun & Yucekaya, Ahmet & Bilge, Ayse Humeyra & Agca Aktunc, Esra, 2021. "Forecasting models for daily natural gas consumption considering periodic variations and demand segregation," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    20. Tomasz Cieślik & Piotr Narloch & Adam Szurlej & Krzysztof Kogut, 2022. "Indirect Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Natural Gas Consumption by Commercial Consumers in a Selected City in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:92:y:2012:i:c:p:26-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.