IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v179y2023ics0301421523002380.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A pathway to achieve the net zero emissions target for the public electricity and heat production sector: A case study for Türkiye

Author

Listed:
  • Calikoglu, Umit
  • Aydinalp Koksal, Merih

Abstract

Various international agreements and mechanisms are established to mitigate climate change by setting targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Türkiye plans to reduce the emissions by 41% from the Business as Usual level in 2030 and set its net zero target. Thus, reducing the emissions of the electricity and heat production sector, primarily driven by fossil fuels, will help achieve its emission target. This study aims to provide a pathway for designing the Turkish public electricity and heat production sector and its policy reflection to achieve a net zero emissions target for 2053. Türkiye's electricity sector is analyzed based on three scenarios with different emission pathways between 2021 and 2053. The model results show a tremendous increase in installed capacity, generation and cumulative investment costs to achieve the net zero target. However, a minor increase in generation cost, emissions and installed capacity is expected when a reduction of 40% from the Business as Usual level is estimated. These results reveal the need for significant changes in its energy policies to pave the way for substantial investment in renewable and nuclear energy and power plants with carbon capture and storage to achieve the net zero target.

Suggested Citation

  • Calikoglu, Umit & Aydinalp Koksal, Merih, 2023. "A pathway to achieve the net zero emissions target for the public electricity and heat production sector: A case study for Türkiye," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:179:y:2023:i:c:s0301421523002380
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113653
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421523002380
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113653?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luis Rivera-González & David Bolonio & Luis F. Mazadiego & Robert Valencia-Chapi, 2019. "Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand Forecast (2018–2040): A LEAP Model Application towards a Sustainable Power Generation System in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    2. María Yetano Roche & Hans Verolme & Chibuikem Agbaegbu & Taylor Binnington & Manfred Fischedick & Emmanuel Olukayode Oladipo, 2020. "Achieving Sustainable Development Goals in Nigeria’s power sector: assessment of transition pathways," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(7), pages 846-865, July.
    3. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
    4. Pin-Han Chen & Cheng-Han Lee & Jun-Yi Wu & Wei-Sheng Chen, 2023. "Perspectives on Taiwan’s Pathway to Net-Zero Emissions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-11, March.
    5. Selçuklu, Saltuk Buğra & Coit, D.W. & Felder, F.A., 2023. "Electricity generation portfolio planning and policy implications of Turkish power system considering cost, emission, and uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Price, James & Keppo, Ilkka & Dodds, Paul E., 2023. "The role of new nuclear power in the UK's net-zero emissions energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    7. Gunnar Luderer & Silvia Madeddu & Leon Merfort & Falko Ueckerdt & Michaja Pehl & Robert Pietzcker & Marianna Rottoli & Felix Schreyer & Nico Bauer & Lavinia Baumstark & Christoph Bertram & Alois Dirna, 2022. "Author Correction: Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 380-381, April.
    8. Kumar, Amit & Bhattacharya, S.C & Pham, H.L, 2003. "Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of biomass energy technologies in Vietnam using the long range energy alternative planning system model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 627-654.
    9. Zoi Vrontisi & Kostas Fragkiadakis & Maria Kannavou & Pantelis Capros, 2020. "Energy system transition and macroeconomic impacts of a European decarbonization action towards a below 2 °C climate stabilization," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1857-1875, October.
    10. Gunnar Luderer & Silvia Madeddu & Leon Merfort & Falko Ueckerdt & Michaja Pehl & Robert Pietzcker & Marianna Rottoli & Felix Schreyer & Nico Bauer & Lavinia Baumstark & Christoph Bertram & Alois Dirna, 2022. "Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 32-42, January.
    11. Geroe, Steven, 2022. "‘Technology not taxes’: A viable Australian path to net zero emissions?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    12. Huang, Yophy & Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey & Peng, Chieh-Yu, 2011. "The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6790-6803.
    13. Li, Ying & Lukszo, Zofia & Weijnen, Margot, 2015. "The implications of CO2 price for China’s power sector decarbonization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 53-64.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mujammil Asdhiyoga Rahmanta & Rahmat Adiprasetya Al Hasibi & Handrea Bernando Tambunan & Ruly & Agussalim Syamsuddin & Indra Ardhanayudha Aditya & Benny Susanto, 2024. "Towards a Net Zero-Emission Electricity Generation System by Optimizing Renewable Energy Sources and Nuclear Power Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-22, April.
    2. Ersoy, Ali Erdinc & Ugurlu, Aysenur, 2024. "Bioenergy's role in achieving a low-carbon electricity future: A case of Türkiye," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 372(C).
    3. Gungor, Gorkem & Sari, Ramazan, 2024. "Meta-analysis of the Turkish energy and climate pathways to achieve the net-zero emission target," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    4. Onur Turan & Ali Durusu & Recep Yumurtaci, 2023. "Driving Urban Energy Sustainability: A Techno-Economic Perspective on Nanogrid Solutions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-28, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hasret Sahin & A. A. Solomon & Arman Aghahosseini & Christian Breyer, 2024. "Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
    3. Eunsung Oh, 2022. "Fair Virtual Energy Storage System Operation for Smart Energy Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Takuma Watari & André Cabrera Serrenho & Lukas Gast & Jonathan Cullen & Julian Allwood, 2023. "Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbon budget is likely to fall short of expected global demand," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Shengyu Tao & Ruifei Ma & Zixi Zhao & Guangyuan Ma & Lin Su & Heng Chang & Yuou Chen & Haizhou Liu & Zheng Liang & Tingwei Cao & Haocheng Ji & Zhiyuan Han & Minyan Lu & Huixiong Yang & Zongguo Wen & J, 2024. "Generative learning assisted state-of-health estimation for sustainable battery recycling with random retirement conditions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Martinez, A. & Iglesias, G., 2024. "Global wind energy resources decline under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    7. Göke, Leonard & Weibezahn, Jens & Kendziorski, Mario, 2023. "How flexible electrification can integrate fluctuating renewables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    8. Philomena Dadzie & Nicholas Bamegne Nambie & Belinda Ameh Obobi, 2023. "Impact of Petroleum Energy Price Volatility on Commodity Prices in Ghana," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 73-82, January.
    9. Tong, Wenxuan & Lu, Zhengang & Chen, Yanbo & Zhao, Guoliang & Hunt, Julian David & Ren, Dawei & Xu, GuiZhi & Han, Minxiao, 2024. "Typical unit capacity configuration strategies and their control methods of modular gravity energy storage plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    10. Keiner, Dominik & Gulagi, Ashish & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Energy demand estimation using a pre-processing macro-economic modelling tool for 21st century transition analyses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    11. Kirchem, Dana & Schill, Wolf-Peter, 2023. "Power sector effects of green hydrogen production in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    12. Mathias Mier & Jacqueline Adelowo & Valeriya Azarova, 2022. "Endogenous Technological Change in Power Markets," ifo Working Paper Series 373, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    13. João Ider & Adhimar Oliveira & Rero Rubinger & Ana Karoline Silva & Aluízio Assini & Geraldo Tiago-Filho & Marcia Baldissera, 2022. "Concentrated Solar Power with Thermoelectric Generator—An Approach Using the Cross-Entropy Optimization Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-11, June.
    14. ElSayed, Mai & Aghahosseini, Arman & Caldera, Upeksha & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Analysing the techno-economic impact of e-fuels and e-chemicals production for exports and carbon dioxide removal on the energy system of sunbelt countries – Case of Egypt," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    15. Chen Chris Gong & Falko Ueckerdt & Christoph Bertram & Yuxin Yin & David Bantje & Robert Pietzcker & Johanna Hoppe & Robin Hasse & Michaja Pehl & Sim'on Moreno-Leiva & Jakob Duerrwaechter & Jarusch Mu, 2023. "Multi-level emission impacts of electrification and coal pathways in China's netzero transition," Papers 2312.04332, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    16. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Ram, Manish & Khalili, Siavash & Aghahosseini, Arman & Fasihi, Mahdi & Breyer, Christian, 2024. "Effects of direct and indirect electrification on transport energy demand during the energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    17. Mondal, Md Alam Hossain & Bryan, Elizabeth & Ringler, Claudia & Mekonnen, Dawit & Rosegrant, Mark, 2018. "Ethiopian energy status and demand scenarios: Prospects to improve energy efficiency and mitigate GHG emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 161-172.
    18. Adrien Nicolle & Diego Cedreros & Olivier Massol & Emma Jagu Schippers, 2023. "Modeling CO2 Pipeline Systems : An Analytical Lens for CCS Regulation," Working Papers hal-04087681, HAL.
    19. Acosta-Pazmiño, Iván P. & Rivera-Solorio, C.I. & Gijón-Rivera, M., 2021. "Scaling-up the installation of hybrid solar collectors to reduce CO2 emissions in a Mexican industrial sector from now to 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    20. Adrian Odenweller & Falko Ueckerdt & Gregory F. Nemet & Miha Jensterle & Gunnar Luderer, 2022. "Probabilistic feasibility space of scaling up green hydrogen supply," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 854-865, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:179:y:2023:i:c:s0301421523002380. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.