IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v179y2023ics0301421523002380.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A pathway to achieve the net zero emissions target for the public electricity and heat production sector: A case study for Türkiye

Author

Listed:
  • Calikoglu, Umit
  • Aydinalp Koksal, Merih

Abstract

Various international agreements and mechanisms are established to mitigate climate change by setting targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Türkiye plans to reduce the emissions by 41% from the Business as Usual level in 2030 and set its net zero target. Thus, reducing the emissions of the electricity and heat production sector, primarily driven by fossil fuels, will help achieve its emission target. This study aims to provide a pathway for designing the Turkish public electricity and heat production sector and its policy reflection to achieve a net zero emissions target for 2053. Türkiye's electricity sector is analyzed based on three scenarios with different emission pathways between 2021 and 2053. The model results show a tremendous increase in installed capacity, generation and cumulative investment costs to achieve the net zero target. However, a minor increase in generation cost, emissions and installed capacity is expected when a reduction of 40% from the Business as Usual level is estimated. These results reveal the need for significant changes in its energy policies to pave the way for substantial investment in renewable and nuclear energy and power plants with carbon capture and storage to achieve the net zero target.

Suggested Citation

  • Calikoglu, Umit & Aydinalp Koksal, Merih, 2023. "A pathway to achieve the net zero emissions target for the public electricity and heat production sector: A case study for Türkiye," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:179:y:2023:i:c:s0301421523002380
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113653
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421523002380
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113653?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luis Rivera-González & David Bolonio & Luis F. Mazadiego & Robert Valencia-Chapi, 2019. "Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand Forecast (2018–2040): A LEAP Model Application towards a Sustainable Power Generation System in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    2. Gunnar Luderer & Silvia Madeddu & Leon Merfort & Falko Ueckerdt & Michaja Pehl & Robert Pietzcker & Marianna Rottoli & Felix Schreyer & Nico Bauer & Lavinia Baumstark & Christoph Bertram & Alois Dirna, 2022. "Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 32-42, January.
    3. Selçuklu, Saltuk Buğra & Coit, D.W. & Felder, F.A., 2023. "Electricity generation portfolio planning and policy implications of Turkish power system considering cost, emission, and uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Price, James & Keppo, Ilkka & Dodds, Paul E., 2023. "The role of new nuclear power in the UK's net-zero emissions energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    5. Geroe, Steven, 2022. "‘Technology not taxes’: A viable Australian path to net zero emissions?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    6. Huang, Yophy & Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey & Peng, Chieh-Yu, 2011. "The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6790-6803.
    7. Gunnar Luderer & Silvia Madeddu & Leon Merfort & Falko Ueckerdt & Michaja Pehl & Robert Pietzcker & Marianna Rottoli & Felix Schreyer & Nico Bauer & Lavinia Baumstark & Christoph Bertram & Alois Dirna, 2022. "Author Correction: Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 380-381, April.
    8. Li, Ying & Lukszo, Zofia & Weijnen, Margot, 2015. "The implications of CO2 price for China’s power sector decarbonization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 53-64.
    9. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
    10. Kumar, Amit & Bhattacharya, S.C & Pham, H.L, 2003. "Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of biomass energy technologies in Vietnam using the long range energy alternative planning system model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 627-654.
    11. María Yetano Roche & Hans Verolme & Chibuikem Agbaegbu & Taylor Binnington & Manfred Fischedick & Emmanuel Olukayode Oladipo, 2020. "Achieving Sustainable Development Goals in Nigeria’s power sector: assessment of transition pathways," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(7), pages 846-865, July.
    12. Pin-Han Chen & Cheng-Han Lee & Jun-Yi Wu & Wei-Sheng Chen, 2023. "Perspectives on Taiwan’s Pathway to Net-Zero Emissions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-11, March.
    13. Zoi Vrontisi & Kostas Fragkiadakis & Maria Kannavou & Pantelis Capros, 2020. "Energy system transition and macroeconomic impacts of a European decarbonization action towards a below 2 °C climate stabilization," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1857-1875, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Onur Turan & Ali Durusu & Recep Yumurtaci, 2023. "Driving Urban Energy Sustainability: A Techno-Economic Perspective on Nanogrid Solutions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-30, December.
    2. Mujammil Asdhiyoga Rahmanta & Rahmat Adiprasetya Al Hasibi & Handrea Bernando Tambunan & Ruly & Agussalim Syamsuddin & Indra Ardhanayudha Aditya & Benny Susanto, 2024. "Towards a Net Zero-Emission Electricity Generation System by Optimizing Renewable Energy Sources and Nuclear Power Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-22, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hasret Sahin & A. A. Solomon & Arman Aghahosseini & Christian Breyer, 2024. "Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
    3. Adrien Nicolle & Diego Cebreros & Olivier Massol & Emma Jagu, 2023. "Modeling CO2 pipeline systems: An analytical lens for CCS regulation," Post-Print hal-04297191, HAL.
    4. Tian, Xuelin & An, Chunjiang & Chen, Zhikun, 2023. "The role of clean energy in achieving decarbonization of electricity generation, transportation, and heating sectors by 2050: A meta-analysis review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    5. Eunsung Oh, 2022. "Fair Virtual Energy Storage System Operation for Smart Energy Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-16, August.
    6. Subramanyam, Veena & Kumar, Amit & Talaei, Alireza & Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain, 2017. "Energy efficiency improvement opportunities and associated greenhouse gas abatement costs for the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 795-807.
    7. Takuma Watari & André Cabrera Serrenho & Lukas Gast & Jonathan Cullen & Julian Allwood, 2023. "Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbon budget is likely to fall short of expected global demand," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Castro Verdezoto, Pedro L. & Vidoza, Jorge A. & Gallo, Waldyr L.R., 2019. "Analysis and projection of energy consumption in Ecuador: Energy efficiency policies in the transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Maksym Chepeliev, 2023. "GTAP-Power Data Base: Version 11," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 8(2), pages 100-133, December.
    10. El-Sayed, Ahmed Hassan A. & Khalil, Adel & Yehia, Mohamed, 2023. "Modeling alternative scenarios for Egypt 2050 energy mix based on LEAP analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    11. Xiang, Xiwang & Ma, Minda & Ma, Xin & Chen, Liming & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei & Ma, Zhili, 2022. "Historical decarbonization of global commercial building operations in the 21st century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    12. Emília Inês Come Zebra & Gilberto Mahumane & Federico Antonio Canu & Ana Cardoso, 2021. "Assessing the Greenhouse Gas Impact of a Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff Policy in Mozambique: Towards NDC Ambition and Recommendations to Effectively Measure, Report, and Verify Its Implementation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, May.
    13. Moradi, Mohammad Ali & Salimi, Mohsen & Amidpour, Majid, 2021. "Cost-benefit analysis of gasoline demand control policies and its greenhouse gas mitigation co-benefits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    14. Yueming (Lucy) Qiu & Nana Deng & Bo Wang & Xingchi Shen & Zhaohua Wang & Nathan Hultman & Han Shi & Jie Liu & Yi David Wang, 2024. "Power supply disruptions deter electric vehicle adoption in cities in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    15. Martinez, A. & Iglesias, G., 2024. "Global wind energy resources decline under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    16. Dongsheng Zheng & Dan Tong & Steven J. Davis & Yue Qin & Yang Liu & Ruochong Xu & Jin Yang & Xizhe Yan & Guannan Geng & Huizheng Che & Qiang Zhang, 2024. "Climate change impacts on the extreme power shortage events of wind-solar supply systems worldwide during 1980–2022," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    17. Göke, Leonard & Weibezahn, Jens & Kendziorski, Mario, 2023. "How flexible electrification can integrate fluctuating renewables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    18. Song, Feng & Cui, Jian & Yu, Yihua, 2022. "Dynamic volatility spillover effects between wind and solar power generations: Implications for hedging strategies and a sustainable power sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    19. Jessica Strefler & Leon Merfort & Nico Bauer & Miodrag Stevanović & Dennis Tänzler & Florian Humpenöder & David Klein & Gunnar Luderer & Michaja Pehl & Robert C. Pietzcker & Alexander Popp & Renato Ro, 2024. "Technology availability, sector policies and behavioral change are complementary strategies for achieving net-zero emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    20. Philomena Dadzie & Nicholas Bamegne Nambie & Belinda Ameh Obobi, 2023. "Impact of Petroleum Energy Price Volatility on Commodity Prices in Ghana," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 73-82, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:179:y:2023:i:c:s0301421523002380. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.