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Future demand scenarios of Bangladesh power sector

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  • Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain
  • Boie, Wulf
  • Denich, Manfred

Abstract

Data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system. The purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in Bangladesh, forecast sector-wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005, and compare the results with official projections. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with three scenarios, namely low gross domestic product (GDP) growth, average GDP growth and high GDP growth, is applied in this study. In the low to high GDP growth scenarios, the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased. The findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development. The study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in Bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries. Such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in Bangladesh to meet the high future demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain & Boie, Wulf & Denich, Manfred, 2010. "Future demand scenarios of Bangladesh power sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7416-7426, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:11:p:7416-7426
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    1. Hossain Mondal, Md. Alam & Sadrul Islam, A.K.M., 2012. "Impacts of CO2 emission constraints on penetration of solar PV in the Bangladesh power sector," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 418-422.
    2. Ahanchian, Mohammad & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel, 2014. "Energy demand, emissions forecasts and mitigation strategies modeled over a medium-range horizon: The case of the land transportation sector in Metro Manila," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 615-629.
    3. Alam Hossain Mondal, Md. & Mathur, Jyotirmay & Denich, Manfred, 2011. "Impacts of CO2 emission constraints on technology selection and energy resources for power generation in Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2043-2050, April.
    4. Mondal, Md Alam Hossain & Bryan, Elizabeth & Ringler, Claudia & Mekonnen, Dawit & Rosegrant, Mark, 2018. "Ethiopian energy status and demand scenarios: Prospects to improve energy efficiency and mitigate GHG emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 161-172.
    5. Halder, P.K. & Paul, N. & Joardder, M.U.H. & Sarker, M., 2015. "Energy scarcity and potential of renewable energy in Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1636-1649.
    6. Gulagi, Ashish & Ram, Manish & Solomon, A.A. & Khan, Musharof & Breyer, Christian, 2020. "Current energy policies and possible transition scenarios adopting renewable energy: A case study for Bangladesh," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 899-920.
    7. Ahmed, Monir Uddin & Nurul Hossain, A.K.M. & Hasanuzzaman, Syed, 2015. "Exploring the depth of energy penetration in economic advancement: Perspective of Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1033-1047.
    8. Luis Rivera-González & David Bolonio & Luis F. Mazadiego & Robert Valencia-Chapi, 2019. "Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand Forecast (2018–2040): A LEAP Model Application towards a Sustainable Power Generation System in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    9. Asif Reza Anik & Sanzidur Rahman, 2021. "Commercial Energy Demand Forecasting in Bangladesh," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-22, October.
    10. Alam Hossain Mondal, Md. & Sadrul Islam, A.K.M., 2011. "Potential and viability of grid-connected solar PV system in Bangladesh," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1869-1874.
    11. Prasad, Ravita D. & Bansal, R.C. & Raturi, Atul, 2014. "Multi-faceted energy planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 686-699.
    12. Md. Emdadul Hoque & Fazlur Rashid & Muhammad Aziz, 2021. "Gasification and Power Generation Characteristics of Rice Husk, Sawdust, and Coconut Shell Using a Fixed-Bed Downdraft Gasifier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-18, February.
    13. Rentizelas, Athanasios & Georgakellos, Dimitrios, 2014. "Incorporating life cycle external cost in optimization of the electricity generation mix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 134-149.
    14. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
    15. Pan, Xiongfeng & Uddin, Md. Kamal & Saima, Umme & Jiao, Zhiming & Han, Cuicui, 2019. "How do industrialization and trade openness influence energy intensity? Evidence from a path model in case of Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    16. Zhang, Dongyu & Liu, Gengyuan & Chen, Caocao & Zhang, Yan & Hao, Yan & Casazza, Marco, 2019. "Medium-to-long-term coupled strategies for energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Beijing (China)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 350-360.
    17. Khan, Muhammad Arshad, 2015. "Modelling and forecasting the demand for natural gas in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1145-1159.
    18. Pan, Xiongfeng & Uddin, Md. Kamal & Saima, Umme & Guo, Shucen & Guo, Ranran, 2019. "Regime switching effect of financial development on energy intensity: Evidence from Markov-switching vector error correction model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    19. Shiraishi, Kenji & Shirley, Rebekah G. & Kammen, Daniel M., 2019. "Geospatial multi-criteria analysis for identifying high priority clean energy investment opportunities: A case study on land-use conflict in Bangladesh," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1457-1467.
    20. Zaman, Rafia & Brudermann, Thomas & Kumar, S. & Islam, Nazrul, 2018. "A multi-criteria analysis of coal-based power generation in Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 182-192.
    21. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2015. "Scenario analysis on greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Southeast Balkans' energy system," MPRA Paper 65280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Fazlur Rashid & Md. Emdadul Hoque & Muhammad Aziz & Talukdar Nazmus Sakib & Md. Tariqul Islam & Raihan Moker Robin, 2021. "Investigation of Optimal Hybrid Energy Systems Using Available Energy Sources in a Rural Area of Bangladesh," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-24, September.
    23. Subramanyam, Veena & Kumar, Amit & Talaei, Alireza & Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain, 2017. "Energy efficiency improvement opportunities and associated greenhouse gas abatement costs for the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 795-807.
    24. Khan, Iftekhar & Alam, Firoz & Alam, Quamrul, 2013. "The global climate change and its effect on power generation in Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1460-1470.
    25. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2012. "A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 374-392.

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    LEAP model Electricity demand GDP;

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