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Construction Cycles in the United States Since World War II

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  • Leo Grebler
  • Leland S. Burns

Abstract

The article analyzes the cycles of total construction and its major sectors after adjustment for the varying growth trends of real expenditures. Fluctuations in GNP and business fixed investment serve as “reference cycles.” The findings elucidate the relationships between cycles in total construction and its components and between construction and GNP cycles. Special analyses are devoted to the movements of public versus private construction expenditures and to the “countercyclical” behavior of residential building. The paper shows increasing volatility of private construction over time and substantial inter‐sector differences in average volatility. Although public policies have a strong potential influence on the cyclical performance of construction, the complexities revealed in the study indicate severe problems in attempts to stabilize its output.

Suggested Citation

  • Leo Grebler & Leland S. Burns, 1982. "Construction Cycles in the United States Since World War II," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-151, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:10:y:1982:i:2:p:123-151
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00260
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Manuel Gottlieb, 1976. "Long Swings in Urban Development," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gott76-1.
    2. Moses Abramovitz, 1964. "Evidences of Long Swings in Aggregate Construction Since the Civil War," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra64-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas E. McCue & John L. Kling, 1994. "Real Estate Returns and the Macroeconomy: Some Empirical Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trust," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(3), pages 277-288.
    2. Waldo L. Born & Stephen A. Pyhrr, 1994. "Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and Property Cycles," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(4), pages 455-486.
    3. Catalina Cantu, 2017. "Mexico’s economic infrastructure: international benchmark and its impact on growth," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 6(1), pages 1-26, December.
    4. Yanfang Sun & Haiyan Xie & Xirong Niu, 2019. "Characteristics of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Development of the Chinese Construction Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-14, August.
    5. Patric H. Hendershott & Thomas G. Thibodeau & Halbert C. Smith, 2009. "Evolution of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association1," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 559-598, December.
    6. Richard Barras, 1987. "Technical Change and the Urban Development Cycle," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 5-30, February.
    7. Pat Wilson & John Okunev & Tiffany Hutcheson, 1998. "Regime Switches in Property Market Risk Premiums: Some International Comparisons," Working Paper Series 80, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. Yoon Dokko & Robert H. Edelstein & Allan J. Lacayo & Daniel C. Lee, 1999. "Real Estate Income and Value Cycles: A Model of Market Dynamics," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 69-96.
    9. Norman Hutchison & Patricia Fraser & Alastair Adair & Rahul Srivatsa, 2012. "Regime shifts in ex post UK commercial property risk premiums," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 247-269, April.
    10. Dall'Olio, Andrea & Iootty, Mariana & Kanehira, Naoto & Saliola, Federica, 2013. "Productivity growth in Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6425, The World Bank.
    11. Lynne B. Sagalyn, 1990. "Real Estate Risk and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Security Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(2), pages 203-220.
    12. Dall'Olio, Andrea & Iootty, Mariana & Kanehira, Naoto & Saliola, Federica, 2014. "Enterprise productivity: a three-speed Europe," Working Paper Series 1748, European Central Bank.
    13. Maurizio d¡¦Amato & Paola Amoruso, 2018. "Application of a Cyclical Capitalization Model to the London Office Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 113-143.

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