IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v13y2024i11p1870-d1517116.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Land Ecological Security and Optimization Based on GeoSOS-FLUS Model: A Case Study of the Yellow River Delta in China Toward Sustainability

Author

Listed:
  • Lu Han

    (The School of Public Administration and Management, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China)

  • Yanbo Qu

    (The School of Public Administration and Management, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China)

  • Shufeng Liang

    (The School of Public Administration and Management, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China)

  • Luyan Shi

    (The School of Public Administration and Management, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China)

  • Min Zhang

    (The School of Public Administration and Management, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China)

  • Haiyan Jia

    (The School of Public Administration and Management, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China)

Abstract

Land ecological security (LES) is a crucial issue pertaining to the sustainability of landscapes or land systems. Nevertheless, previous studies largely neglected the impacts of landscape structure on LES. This study, taking the Yellow River Delta (YRD) as the case area, analyzed the spatiotemporal differentiation patterns of regional LES in 19 counties (cities and districts) from 2000 to 2020 through the application of landscape metrics and employed GeoSOS-FLUS to forecast the landscape structure and corresponding land ecological security in 2030 under four different scenarios to advance sustainability. The results show that, first, landscape fragmentation and irregularity are decreasing, while aggregation and connectivity are increasing. The primary landscape change involves the transition from farmland to developed areas. Second, the LES index is rising. In 2020, about 73.68% of the research units reached level IV, while most were at level III. Third, it is projected that by 2030, the LES index will rise under all scenarios, exhibiting an eastward-declining gradient in its geographic distribution, with higher values prevailing in the eastern regions and gradually tapering off towards the west. It is expected that in the business-as-usual scenario, the proportion of LES reaching level V will be the highest. This study not only reveals the impact mechanism of the landscape structure on land ecological security but also provides an important basis for formulating scientific and rational land use planning and management strategies from the perspectives of sustainable land governance and sustainable land use.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu Han & Yanbo Qu & Shufeng Liang & Luyan Shi & Min Zhang & Haiyan Jia, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Land Ecological Security and Optimization Based on GeoSOS-FLUS Model: A Case Study of the Yellow River Delta in China Toward Sustainability," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-21, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:11:p:1870-:d:1517116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/11/1870/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/11/1870/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qiqi Yang & Lijie Pu & Sihua Huang, 2024. "Review of Urbanization-Associated Farmland Research in China: A Sustainability Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Zhengxin Ji & Hejie Wei & Dong Xue & Mengxue Liu & Enxiang Cai & Weiqiang Chen & Xinwei Feng & Jiwei Li & Jie Lu & Yulong Guo, 2021. "Trade-Off and Projecting Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services under Different Policies Scenarios: A Case Study in Central China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Nan Wang & Peijuan Zhu & Guohua Zhou & Xudong Xing & Yong Zhang, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risk Response Based on Planning Control," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-29, November.
    4. Yue Li & Huacai Geng, 2022. "Evolution of Land Use Landscape Patterns in Karst Watersheds of Guizhou Plateau and Its Ecological Security Evaluation," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Wang, Huan & Zhang, Chao & Yao, Xiaochuang & Yun, Wenju & Ma, Jiani & Gao, Lulu & Li, Pengshan, 2022. "Scenario simulation of the tradeoff between ecological land and farmland in black soil region of Northeast China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    6. Sizheng Li & Liuzhu Wang & Sheng Zhao & Feng Gui & Qun Le, 2023. "Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment of Zhoushan Island Based on LULC Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Xinyu Hu & Chun Dong & Yu Zhang, 2024. "Impacts of Cropland Utilization Patterns on the Sustainable Use Efficiency of Cropland Based on the Human–Land Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-27, June.
    8. Rongtian Zhang & Jianfei Lu, 2021. "Simulation of Land Use Pattern Evolution from a Multi-Scenario Perspective: A Case Study of Suzhou City in Anhui Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-12, January.
    9. Onggarbek Alipbeki & Chaimgul Alipbekova & Arnold Sterenharz & Zhanat Toleubekova & Saule Makenova & Meirzhan Aliyev & Nursultan Mineyev, 2020. "Analysis of Land-Use Change in Shortandy District in Terms of Sustainable Development," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-16, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jun Luo & Xueyang Ma & Lei Wang & Bin Zhang & Xiao Yang & Tianxiang Yue, 2022. "The Influence of Short-Term Heavy Rainfall on Hydraulic Characteristics and Rill Formation in the Yuanmou Dry-Hot Valley," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-21, November.
    2. Tatiana Minnikova & Sergey Kolesnikov & Tatiana Minkina & Saglara Mandzhieva, 2021. "Assessment of Ecological Condition of Haplic Chernozem Calcic Contaminated with Petroleum Hydrocarbons during Application of Bioremediation Agents of Various Natures," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-20, February.
    3. Batara Surya & Agus Salim & Hernita Hernita & Seri Suriani & Firman Menne & Emil Salim Rasyidi, 2021. "Land Use Change, Urban Agglomeration, and Urban Sprawl: A Sustainable Development Perspective of Makassar City, Indonesia," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-31, May.
    4. Yong Zhu & Shihu Zhong & Ying Wang & Muhua Liu, 2021. "Land Use Evolution and Land Ecological Security Evaluation Based on AHP-FCE Model: Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Hui Xu & Cunyou Chen & Luyun Liu & Qizhen Li & Baojing Wei & Xijun Hu, 2024. "Response of Surface Runoff Evolution to Landscape Patterns in Karst Areas: A Case Study of Yun–Gui Plateau," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-29, August.
    6. Xiangjuan Zhao & Hanxuan Zhang & Jun Ren & Jing Guo & Quanxi Wang & Chengying Li, 2023. "City Health Examination and Evaluation of Territory Spatial Planning for SDG11 in China: A Case Study of Xining City in Qinghai Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Bin Ou & Abudukeyimu Abulizi & Abudoukeremujiang Zayiti & Jiao Jiang & Adila Akbar & Tingting Yu, 2023. "Ecological Risk Zoning Control in Zhundong Economic Development Zone Based on Landscape Pattern Changes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-16, November.
    8. Yingqiang Song & Zeao Zhang & Yan Li & Runyan Zou & Lu Wang & Hao Yang & Yueming Hu, 2023. "The Role of High Nature Value Farmland for Landscape and Soil Pollution Assessment in a Coastal Delta in China Based on High-Resolution Indicators," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-19, April.
    9. Hejie Wei & Yingying Gao & Qing Han & Ling Li & Xiaobin Dong & Mengxue Liu & Qingxiang Meng, 2022. "Quality Evaluation and Obstacle Identification of Human Settlements in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Based on Multi-Source Data," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, September.
    10. Grigorios L. Kyriakopoulos, 2023. "Land Use Planning and Green Environment Services: The Contribution of Trail Paths to Sustainable Development," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-25, May.
    11. Jing Shi & Peiji Shi & Ziyang Wang & Lirong Wang & Yali Li, 2023. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, April.
    12. Shanshan Wang & Qiting Zuo & Kefa Zhou & Jinlin Wang & Wei Wang, 2023. "Predictions of Land Use/Land Cover Change and Landscape Pattern Analysis in the Lower Reaches of the Tarim River, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.
    13. Jundong Hu & Hong Wang & Yu Song, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of “Non-Grain Production” in Hubei Province Based on a Non-Grain Index," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-19, June.
    14. Yanlong Guo & Xingmeng Ma & Yelin Zhu & Denghang Chen & Han Zhang, 2023. "Research on Driving Factors of Forest Ecological Security: Evidence from 12 Provincial Administrative Regions in Western China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.
    15. Shengwang Bao & Fan Yang, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Dynamic of the Land Use/Cover Change and Scenario Simulation in the Southeast Coastal Shelterbelt System Construction Project Region of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-19, July.
    16. Yanqi Zhao & Yue Zhang & Ying Yang & Fan Li & Rongkun Dai & Jianlin Li & Mingshi Wang & Zhenhua Li, 2023. "The Impact of Land Use Structure Change on Utilization Performance in Henan Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-18, February.
    17. Hongjiao Qu & Weiyin Wang & Chang You & Luo Guo, 2024. "Interaction Effect of Carbon Emission and Ecological Risk in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: New Insights into Multi-Simulation Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-23, June.
    18. Chaolei Yang & Jingyuan Li & Shuwen Jiang & Yufeng Tian & Canfeng Li & Wantao Yang & Haichuan Duan & Zong Wei & Yong Huang, 2024. "The Impacts of Land-Use Changes on Ecosystem Service Value in the Yunnan–Kweichow Plateau, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-24, January.
    19. Yaohan Cheng & Chengxiu Li & Shuting He & Ling Li & Liangyun Dong & Xiuli Wang, 2023. "Coordinated Development Path of Cultivated Land Utilization in Henan Section of the Yellow River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-24, July.
    20. Xue Wang, 2022. "Changes in Cultivated Land Loss and Landscape Fragmentation in China from 2000 to 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:11:p:1870-:d:1517116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.