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Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China

Author

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  • Jing Shi

    (College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
    Gansu Engineering Research Center of Land Utilization and Comprehension Consolidation, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Peiji Shi

    (College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
    Gansu Engineering Research Center of Land Utilization and Comprehension Consolidation, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Ziyang Wang

    (College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
    Gansu Engineering Research Center of Land Utilization and Comprehension Consolidation, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Lirong Wang

    (College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
    Gansu Engineering Research Center of Land Utilization and Comprehension Consolidation, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Yali Li

    (College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
    Gansu Engineering Research Center of Land Utilization and Comprehension Consolidation, Lanzhou 730070, China)

Abstract

The arid region of northwest China is an extremely fragile area of natural ecology. With population growth and continuous expansion of urban scale, the ecosystem in the arid region is facing greater pressure. Scientific assessment and prediction of the value of ecosystem services in arid areas are necessary and of great significance for the sustainable development of regional ecological environments. In this paper, a parametric optimal geographic model is used to analyze the driving factors of ESV spatial dispersion in Jiuquan City as an example. The PLUS model is also used to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution of ESV in 2035 under the scenarios of natural development, urban development, water constraints and ecological conservation, based on the historical change pattern of land use and ecosystem service value (ESV). The results showed that from 1980 to 2020, the plowland, water and construction land area in Jiuquan City showed a significant increasing trend, while other land use types showed a decreasing trend. ESV has increased from CNY 139.394 billion to CNY 142.642 billion. The expansion of plowland and water area was the main reason for the increase in ESV. Elevation, temperature, and precipitation are the main driving factors of spatial differentiation of ESV in Jiuquan City. The interaction of natural and human factors enhances the explanatory power of each factor to the spatial differentiation of ESV. In 2035, the ESV in four development scenarios in Jiuquan City showed an upward trend, and the ESV of the ecological protection scenario was the highest, which was the best mode to realize a sustainable development in Jiuquan City in the future. This study can provide scientific basis and decision-making basis for Jiuquan City to formulate sustainable development strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing Shi & Peiji Shi & Ziyang Wang & Lirong Wang & Yali Li, 2023. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:5:p:937-:d:1130020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Maomao Zhang & Enqing Chen & Cheng Zhang & Chen Liu & Jianxing Li, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Based on the Markov–FLUS Model in Ezhou City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Xiang Li & Jiang Zhu & Tao Liu & Xiangdong Yin & Jiangchun Yao & Hao Jiang & Bing Bu & Jianlong Yan & Yixuan Li & Zhangcheng Chen, 2023. "Quota and Space Allocations of New Urban Land Supported by Urban Growth Simulations: A Case Study of Guangzhou City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, June.

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