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Simulation of Land Use Pattern Evolution from a Multi-Scenario Perspective: A Case Study of Suzhou City in Anhui Province, China

Author

Listed:
  • Rongtian Zhang

    (New Rural Development Research Institute, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China)

  • Jianfei Lu

    (New Rural Development Research Institute, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China)

Abstract

Land use/land cover change is a frontier issue in the field of geography research. Taking Suzhou City in Anhui Province as the research case, based on thematic mapper /enhanced thematic mapper+ (TM/ETM+) remote sensing data from 1998 to 2018, through the transfer matrix model and modified conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent (CLUE-S) model, the simulation of the land use landscape pattern evolution was studied from a multi-scenario perspective. The results showed that in the past 20 years, landscape patterns have undergone spatial–temporal conversion, which was mainly manifested as the evolution from a cultivated land landscape and other agricultural land to construction land, and there was some transformation between other landscape types, but the transformation degree was not significant. The spatial autocorrelation factor was introduced to correct the CLUE-S model, and the Kappa index reached 0.83, indicating that the modified CLUE-S model had a good simulation accuracy. (I) In the cultivated land protection scenario, limiting the conversion of basic farmland use, and by 2028, the proportion of cultivated land increased by 5.23%, distributed in eastern Suzhou City; (II) in the economic development scenario, by 2028, the construction land area increased by 14.58%, and was distributed in the surrounding regions of the built-up areas; and (III) in the ecological protection scenario, by 2028, wood land, water, and other ecological protection land area increased, and were distributed in the central and eastern part of Suzhou City. Research can provide useful decision-making support for land use optimization and remediation.

Suggested Citation

  • Rongtian Zhang & Jianfei Lu, 2021. "Simulation of Land Use Pattern Evolution from a Multi-Scenario Perspective: A Case Study of Suzhou City in Anhui Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-12, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:3:p:921-:d:484658
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jiang, Weiguo & Deng, Yue & Tang, Zhenghong & Lei, Xuan & Chen, Zheng, 2017. "Modelling the potential impacts of urban ecosystem changes on carbon storage under different scenarios by linking the CLUE-S and the InVEST models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 30-40.
    2. Darvishi, Asef & Yousefi, Maryam & Marull, Joan, 2020. "Modelling landscape ecological assessments of land use and cover change scenarios. Application to the Bojnourd Metropolitan Area (NE Iran)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Huang, Daquan & Huang, Jing & Liu, Tao, 2019. "Delimiting urban growth boundaries using the CLUE-S model with village administrative boundaries," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 422-435.
    4. Li Yu & Zhanqi Wang & Hongwei Zhang & Chao Wei, 2020. "Spatial-Temporal Differentiation Analysis of Agricultural Land Use Intensity and Its Driving Factors at the County Scale: A Case Study in Hubei Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-18, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Fandi Meng & Zhi Zhou & Pengtao Zhang, 2023. "Multi-Objective Optimization of Land Use in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region of China Based on the GMOP-PLUS Coupling Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-22, February.
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    4. Pengnan Xiao & Jie Xu & Chong Zhao, 2022. "Conflict Identification and Zoning Optimization of “Production-Living-Ecological” Space," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-27, June.

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