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Predictions of Land Use/Land Cover Change and Landscape Pattern Analysis in the Lower Reaches of the Tarim River, China

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  • Shanshan Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Mineral Resources and Digital Geology, Urumqi 830011, China
    Xinjiang Research Centre for Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Qiting Zuo

    (School of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

  • Kefa Zhou

    (Technology and Engineering Center for Space Utilization, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Jinlin Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Mineral Resources and Digital Geology, Urumqi 830011, China
    Xinjiang Research Centre for Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Wei Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Mineral Resources and Digital Geology, Urumqi 830011, China
    Xinjiang Research Centre for Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China)

Abstract

Natural vegetation on both sides of the Tarim River Basin (TRB) is the only barrier—a critical ecological niche—between the economic belt in the artificial oasis and the Taklimakan Desert. To understand the impact of human activities on the TRB, we explored the spatial and temporal variations in land use/land cover change (LUCC) and landscape pattern evolution from 2000 to 2020. These variations were simulated for 2030 with the 20 years of data using the cellular automata–Markov model and geographical information system analyses. The results predicted substantial LUCCs in the lower reaches of the Tarim River (TRlr), with 3400 km 2 (20.29%) of the total area (16,760.94 km 2 ) undergoing changes. Wetland, artificial land, grassland, farmland, and forestland areas increased by 578.59, 43.90, 339.90, 201.62, and 536.11 km 2 , respectively, during the period from 2020 to 2030. The only decreases were in the Gobi/other deserts and bare soils (1700.13 km 2 ). We also determined current and future changes in TRlr landscape pattern indices at the class and landscape levels. Combined with a field survey and hydrological data, theoretical support for effective land use management strategies is provided. The findings offer a scientific basis for future ecological civilization construction and sustainable development in the TRB.

Suggested Citation

  • Shanshan Wang & Qiting Zuo & Kefa Zhou & Jinlin Wang & Wei Wang, 2023. "Predictions of Land Use/Land Cover Change and Landscape Pattern Analysis in the Lower Reaches of the Tarim River, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:5:p:1093-:d:1151235
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yonghui Wang & Jin Li & Kaixuan Qian & Mao Ye, 2023. "Response of Plant Species Diversity to Flood Irrigation in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Yue Li & Huacai Geng, 2022. "Evolution of Land Use Landscape Patterns in Karst Watersheds of Guizhou Plateau and Its Ecological Security Evaluation," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Hebing Zhang & Qingqing Yan & Fangfang Xie & Shouchen Ma, 2023. "Evaluation and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Security Based on a CA-Markov Model in Overlapped Area of Crop and Coal Production," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
    4. Maomao Zhang & Abdulla-Al Kafy & Bing Ren & Yanwei Zhang & Shukui Tan & Jianxing Li, 2022. "Application of the Optimal Parameter Geographic Detector Model in the Identification of Influencing Factors of Ecological Quality in Guangzhou, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tingting Xia & Xuan Xue & Haowei Wang & Zhen Zhu & Zhi Li & Yang Wang, 2024. "Mechanism of Vegetation Greenness Change and Its Correlation with Terrestrial Water Storage in the Tarim River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Ying Li & Xu Han & Bingbing Zhou & Ligang Lv & Yeting Fan, 2023. "Farmland Dynamics and Its Grain Production Efficiency and Ecological Security in China’s Major Grain-Producing Regions between 2000 and 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, July.

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