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Scenario simulation of the tradeoff between ecological land and farmland in black soil region of Northeast China

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Huan
  • Zhang, Chao
  • Yao, Xiaochuang
  • Yun, Wenju
  • Ma, Jiani
  • Gao, Lulu
  • Li, Pengshan

Abstract

The trade-off/synergy between planned ecological land and farmland is of great significance to food security, economic development and ecological environment protection in black soil region, and has become a global strategic issue related to the sustainable development of human society. Land use/cover (LUC) simulation model can be used to formulate sustainable land use strategies that balance farmland use and ecological environment protection. In this study, we combined the grey attribute of land resources with the complexity of land use/cover change (LUCC). By integrating grey Markov model and Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model, we discussed the characteristics of historical LUCC in Songnen Plain from 2000 to 2020, and simulated the LUC pattern of Songnen Plain in 2040 under different scenarios. At the same time, the landscape gradient evolution of ecological land and farmland under different scenarios from 2000 to 2020 and 2040 were quantitative analyzed in order to clarify the changes of ecological land and farmland in the study area in the past and future, which provided a basis for the tradeoff / synergy between farmland and ecological land. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The LUCC in 2020 was simulated with the Kappa coefficient was 0.82, the figure of merit (FOM) coefficient was 0.31, which verified the rationality of the accuracy of the model. (2) Whether it is baseline development (BL) scenario, farmland protection (FP) scenario, ecological protection (EP) scenario and black land protection (BP)scenario, the transformation of farmland and ecological land was distributed in the central and western areas, the transformation frequency of farmland, wetland and grassland was higher. (3) Landscape gradient analysis showed the degree of fragmentation of ecological land in Songnen Plain was high, and the anti-interference ability of farmland is strong. (4) The whole region is a trade-off between the two landscape, and the trade-off in the typical black soil area is about 20% higher than the non-typical black soil area. Black land protection scenario may be the best solution to coordinate the sustainable development of farmland and ecological land in the future. These studies will not only provide a theoretical basis for regional land management decision-making and urban planning and construction, but also provide some reference for its economic construction and sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Huan & Zhang, Chao & Yao, Xiaochuang & Yun, Wenju & Ma, Jiani & Gao, Lulu & Li, Pengshan, 2022. "Scenario simulation of the tradeoff between ecological land and farmland in black soil region of Northeast China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:114:y:2022:i:c:s0264837722000187
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.105991
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    3. Yingqiang Song & Zeao Zhang & Yan Li & Runyan Zou & Lu Wang & Hao Yang & Yueming Hu, 2023. "The Role of High Nature Value Farmland for Landscape and Soil Pollution Assessment in a Coastal Delta in China Based on High-Resolution Indicators," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-19, April.
    4. Shengwang Bao & Fan Yang, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Dynamic of the Land Use/Cover Change and Scenario Simulation in the Southeast Coastal Shelterbelt System Construction Project Region of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-19, July.
    5. Wen Li & Jianwei Geng & Jingling Bao & Wenxiong Lin & Zeyan Wu & Shuisheng Fan, 2023. "Spatial and Temporal Evolution Patterns of Habitat Quality under Tea Plantation Expansion and Multi-Scenario Simulation Study: Anxi County as an Example," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-19, June.
    6. Yanqi Zhao & Yue Zhang & Ying Yang & Fan Li & Rongkun Dai & Jianlin Li & Mingshi Wang & Zhenhua Li, 2023. "The Impact of Land Use Structure Change on Utilization Performance in Henan Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-18, February.
    7. Han Liu & Yu Wang & Lingling Sang & Caisheng Zhao & Tengyun Hu & Hongtao Liu & Zheng Zhang & Shuyu Wang & Shuangxi Miao & Zhengshan Ju, 2023. "Evaluation of Spatiotemporal Changes in Cropland Quantity and Quality with Multi-Source Remote Sensing," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-22, September.
    8. Jun Luo & Xueyang Ma & Lei Wang & Bin Zhang & Xiao Yang & Tianxiang Yue, 2022. "The Influence of Short-Term Heavy Rainfall on Hydraulic Characteristics and Rill Formation in the Yuanmou Dry-Hot Valley," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-21, November.
    9. Xue Wang, 2022. "Changes in Cultivated Land Loss and Landscape Fragmentation in China from 2000 to 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, May.

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