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No Excess Mortality up to 10 Years in Early Stages of Breast Cancer in Women Adherent to Oral Endocrine Therapy: A Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Approach

Author

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  • Ramon Clèries

    (Hospitalet de Llobregat Avenue Gran Vía 199-203, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica de Bellvitge (IDIBELL), Hospitalet de Llobregat, Avenue Gran Via de l’Hospitalet, 199-203-1a Planta, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Department de Ciències Clíniques, Universitat de Barcelona, 08907 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Maria Buxó

    (Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica de Girona (IDIBGI), C/Dr. Castany s/n, Edifici M2, Parc Hospitalari Martí i Julià, 17190 Girona, Spain)

  • Mireia Vilardell

    (Independent Researcher, 08700 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Alberto Ameijide

    (Registre de Càncer de Tarragona, Servei d’Epidemiologia i Prevenció del Càncer, Hospital Universitari Sant Joan de Reus (IISPV), 43204 Reus, Spain)

  • José Miguel Martínez

    (Department de Estadística i Investigació Operativa, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (EDIFICI H), Diagonal 647, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
    Grupo de Investigación en Salud Pública, Universidad de Alicante, 03690 Alicante, Spain)

  • Rebeca Font

    (Hospitalet de Llobregat Avenue Gran Vía 199-203, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica de Bellvitge (IDIBELL), Hospitalet de Llobregat, Avenue Gran Via de l’Hospitalet, 199-203-1a Planta, 08908 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Rafael Marcos-Gragera

    (Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica de Girona (IDIBGI), C/Dr. Castany s/n, Edifici M2, Parc Hospitalari Martí i Julià, 17190 Girona, Spain
    Registre de Cáncer de Girona-Unitat d’Epidemiologia, Institut Català d’Oncología, 17005 Girona, Spain
    Grup d’Epidemiologia Descriptiva, Genètica i Prevenció del Càncer de Girona-IDIBGI, 17005 Girona, Spain
    Facultat de Medicina, Universitat de Girona (UdG), 17071 Girona, Spain)

  • Montse Puigdemont

    (Registre de Cáncer de Girona-Unitat d’Epidemiologia, Institut Català d’Oncología, 17005 Girona, Spain
    Grup d’Epidemiologia Descriptiva, Genètica i Prevenció del Càncer de Girona-IDIBGI, 17005 Girona, Spain)

  • Gemma Viñas

    (Servei d’Oncología Médica, Institut Català d’Oncología, Hospital Universitari de Girona “Doctor Josep Trueta”, 17005 Girona, Spain)

  • Marià Carulla

    (Registre de Càncer de Tarragona, Servei d’Epidemiologia i Prevenció del Càncer, Hospital Universitari Sant Joan de Reus (IISPV), 43204 Reus, Spain)

  • Josep Alfons Espinàs

    (Hospitalet de Llobregat Avenue Gran Vía 199-203, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica de Bellvitge (IDIBELL), Hospitalet de Llobregat, Avenue Gran Via de l’Hospitalet, 199-203-1a Planta, 08908 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Jaume Galceran

    (Registre de Càncer de Tarragona, Servei d’Epidemiologia i Prevenció del Càncer, Hospital Universitari Sant Joan de Reus (IISPV), 43204 Reus, Spain)

  • Ángel Izquierdo

    (Registre de Cáncer de Girona-Unitat d’Epidemiologia, Institut Català d’Oncología, 17005 Girona, Spain
    Grup d’Epidemiologia Descriptiva, Genètica i Prevenció del Càncer de Girona-IDIBGI, 17005 Girona, Spain
    Servei d’Oncología Médica, Institut Català d’Oncología, Hospital Universitari de Girona “Doctor Josep Trueta”, 17005 Girona, Spain)

  • Josep Maria Borràs

    (Hospitalet de Llobregat Avenue Gran Vía 199-203, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica de Bellvitge (IDIBELL), Hospitalet de Llobregat, Avenue Gran Via de l’Hospitalet, 199-203-1a Planta, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
    Department de Ciències Clíniques, Universitat de Barcelona, 08907 Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract

Breast cancer (BC) is globally the most frequent cancer in women. Adherence to endocrine therapy (ET) in hormone-receptor-positive BC patients is active and voluntary for the first five years after diagnosis. This study examines the impact of adherence to ET on 10-year excess mortality (EM) in patients diagnosed with Stages I to III BC (N = 2297). Since sample size is an issue for estimating age- and stage-specific survival indicators, we developed a method, ComSynSurData, for generating a large synthetic dataset (SynD) through probabilistic graphical modeling of the original cohort. We derived population-based survival indicators using a Bayesian relative survival model fitted to the SynD. Our modeling showed that hormone-receptor-positive BC patients diagnosed beyond 49 years of age at Stage I or beyond 59 years at Stage II do not have 10-year EM if they follow the prescribed ET regimen. This result calls for developing interventions to promote adherence to ET in patients with hormone receptor-positive BC and in turn improving cancer survival. The presented methodology here demonstrates the potential use of probabilistic graphical modeling for generating reliable synthetic datasets for validating population-based survival indicators when sample size is an issue.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramon Clèries & Maria Buxó & Mireia Vilardell & Alberto Ameijide & José Miguel Martínez & Rebeca Font & Rafael Marcos-Gragera & Montse Puigdemont & Gemma Viñas & Marià Carulla & Josep Alfons Espinàs &, 2022. "No Excess Mortality up to 10 Years in Early Stages of Breast Cancer in Women Adherent to Oral Endocrine Therapy: A Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:6:p:3605-:d:774002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sturtz, Sibylle & Ligges, Uwe & Gelman, Andrew, 2005. "R2WinBUGS: A Package for Running WinBUGS from R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 12(i03).
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramon Clèries & Alberto Ameijide & Maria Buxó & Mireia Vilardell & José Miguel Martínez & Rebeca Font & Rafael Marcos-Gragera & Montse Puigdemont & Gemma Viñas & Marià Carulla & Josep Alfons Espinàs &, 2022. "Ten-Year Probabilities of Death Due to Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease among Breast Cancer Patients Diagnosed in North-Eastern Spain," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, December.

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