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Filling the gap: A compositional gap regeneration model for managed northern hardwood forests

Author

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  • Millington, James D.A.
  • Walters, Michael B.
  • Matonis, Megan S.
  • Liu, Jianguo

Abstract

Regeneration of trees in canopy gaps created by timber harvest is vital for the sustainability of many managed forests. In northern hardwood forests of the Great Lakes region of North America, regeneration density and composition are highly variable because of multiple drivers that include browsing by herbivores, seed availability, and physical characteristics of forest gaps and stands. The long-term consequences of variability in regeneration for economic productivity and wildlife habitat are uncertain. To better understand and evaluate drivers and long-term consequences of regeneration variability, simulation models that combine statistical models of regeneration with established forest growth and yield models are useful. We present the structure, parameterization, testing and use of a stochastic, regression-based compositional forest gap regeneration model developed with the express purpose of being integrated with the US Forest Service forest growth and yield model ‘Forest Vegetation Simulator’ (FVS) to form an integrated simulation model. The innovative structure of our regeneration model represents only those trees regenerating in gaps with the best chance of subsequently growing into the canopy (i.e., the tallest). Using a multi-model inference (MMI) approach and field data collected from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan we find that ‘habitat type’ (a proxy for soil moisture and nutrients), deer density, canopy openness and basal area of mature ironwood (Ostrya virginiana) in the vicinity of a gap drive regeneration abundance and composition. The best model from our MMI approach indicates that where deer densities are high, ironwood appears to gain a competitive advantage over sugar maple (Acer saccharum) and that habitat type is an important predictor of overall regeneration success. Using sensitivity analyses we show that this regeneration model is sufficiently robust for use with FVS to simulate forest dynamics over long time periods (i.e., 200 years).

Suggested Citation

  • Millington, James D.A. & Walters, Michael B. & Matonis, Megan S. & Liu, Jianguo, 2013. "Filling the gap: A compositional gap regeneration model for managed northern hardwood forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 17-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:253:y:2013:i:c:p:17-27
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.12.033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Holm, Jennifer A. & Shugart, H.H. & Van Bloem, S.J. & Larocque, G.R., 2012. "Gap model development, validation, and application to succession of secondary subtropical dry forests of Puerto Rico," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 233(C), pages 70-82.
    2. Sturtz, Sibylle & Ligges, Uwe & Gelman, Andrew, 2005. "R2WinBUGS: A Package for Running WinBUGS from R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 12(i03).
    3. Millington, James D.A. & Walters, Michael B. & Matonis, Megan S. & Liu, Jianguo, 2013. "Modelling for forest management synergies and trade-offs: Northern hardwood tree regeneration, timber and deer," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 248(C), pages 103-112.
    4. Larocque, Guy R. & Archambault, Louis & Delisle, Claude, 2011. "Development of the gap model ZELIG-CFS to predict the dynamics of North American mixed forest types with complex structures," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(14), pages 2570-2583.
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