IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v183y2024ics0305750x24001992.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of refugee influx on the local economy and environmental degradation in Bangladesh: A spatial multilevel autoregressive analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Sakamoto, Maiko
  • Ullah, S.M. Asik
  • Tani, Masakazu

Abstract

The number of people who have been forcibly displaced has increased steadily over the past decade. The recent Rohingya refugee exodus of an estimated 700,000 individuals surging into Bangladesh from Myanmar is just one example of this growing issue. Refugees generally affect the economic and social conditions and the local environment where they resettle. This study aims to examine the impacts of the Rohingya refugee influx on livelihood choice and income status in the host community as well as local environmental degradation. We conducted a questionnaire survey in all 147 villages of the Teknaf Upazila before and after the Rohingya refugee influx that included 5,769 and 6,825 households respectively. We used land cover maps created from remote sensing images to assess the region’s environmental degradation in a holistic fashion. Inherent regional characteristics may affect livelihood choice and income; therefore, we applied two statistical modeling approaches to mitigate such inherent regional biases—Multilevel Modeling and Multilevel Intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive Modeling. The statistical analyses used a combination of the household survey results and the land cover maps. Our study found significant income decreases between the two study periods, specifically among those engaged in farming and miscellaneous labor work. Furthermore, farmers with small agricultural land were crowded out of farming as a livelihood. The results also revealed the natural resource dependency of the host community and its association with ongoing environmental degradation. We located those who were left behind and did not benefit from relief interventions in the middle-south area and the middle of the west coast—this was likely due to geographical and topographical disadvantages. Our results illuminated the limitations of the current humanitarian system and emphasized the need for a sustainable perspective to be more strongly incorporated into future humanitarian efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Sakamoto, Maiko & Ullah, S.M. Asik & Tani, Masakazu, 2024. "Impacts of refugee influx on the local economy and environmental degradation in Bangladesh: A spatial multilevel autoregressive analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:183:y:2024:i:c:s0305750x24001992
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106729
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X24001992
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106729?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S M Asik Ullah & Kazuo Asahiro & Masao Moriyama & Masakazu Tani, 2021. "Socioeconomic Status Changes of the Host Communities after the Rohingya Refugee Influx in the Southern Coastal Area of Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, April.
    2. World Bank, 2020. "Ethiopia Poverty Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 33544, The World Bank Group.
    3. Hui Li & Raul Paraco, 2018. "Impact of Oil Price on Australian Stock Market Returns," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03), pages 1-27, September.
    4. Hemal Chowdhury & Tamal Chowdhury & Ayyoob Sharifi & Richard Corkish & Sadiq M. Sait, 2022. "Role of Biogas in Achieving Sustainable Development Goals in Rohingya Refugee Camps in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-15, September.
    5. World Bank, 2020. "Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 34496.
    6. 'Bimbo. M., Ogunbanjo,, 2020. "Poverty, Development And Hunger In A World Of States," Multidisciplinary Journal of Management Sciences, Association of Forensic Accounting Researchers (AFAR), vol. 2(1), pages 116-153, June.
    7. World Bank, 2020. "Tanzania Mainland Poverty Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 33542, The World Bank Group.
    8. World Bank, 2020. "Ethiopia Poverty Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 34617, The World Bank Group.
    9. UNCTAD & World Bank, 2018. "Environmental and Social Impact Assessments," World Bank Publications - Reports 29477, The World Bank Group.
    10. Sturtz, Sibylle & Ligges, Uwe & Gelman, Andrew, 2005. "R2WinBUGS: A Package for Running WinBUGS from R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 12(i03).
    11. UNCTAD & World Bank, 2018. "Enhancing Local Economic Impact," World Bank Publications - Reports 29469, The World Bank Group.
    12. Seth Gershenson & Cassandra M. D. Hart & Joshua Hyman & Constance A. Lindsay & Nicholas W. Papageorge, 2022. "The Long-Run Impacts of Same-Race Teachers," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 300-342, November.
    13. World Bank, 2020. "Angola Poverty Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 34057, The World Bank Group.
    14. Christian A. L. Hilber & Olivier Schöni, 2018. "The economic impacts of constraining home investments," CEP Discussion Papers dp1556, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Yigong Hu & Binbin Lu & Yong Ge & Guanpeng Dong, 2022. "Uncovering spatial heterogeneity in real estate prices via combined hierarchical linear model and geographically weighted regression," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 49(6), pages 1715-1740, July.
    16. World Bank, 2020. "Ethiopia Regional Poverty Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 34805, The World Bank Group.
    17. Chunding Li & Chuantian He & Chuangwei Lin, 2018. "Economic Impacts of the Possible China–US Trade War," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(7), pages 1557-1577, May.
    18. Chen, Wei-Peng & Ling Lin, Shu & Lu, Jun & Wu, Chih-Chiang, 2018. "The impact of funding liquidity on market quality," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 153-166.
    19. Nicky Best & Samantha Cockings & James Bennett & Jon Wakefield & Paul Elliott, 2001. "Ecological regression analysis of environmental benzene exposure and childhood leukaemia: sensitivity to data inaccuracies, geographical scale and ecological bias," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(1), pages 155-174.
    20. Bates, Douglas & Mächler, Martin & Bolker, Ben & Walker, Steve, 2015. "Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models Using lme4," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 67(i01).
    21. Julian Besag & Jeremy York & Annie Mollié, 1991. "Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 43(1), pages 1-20, March.
    22. Nicole White & Kerrie Mengersen, 2016. "Predicting health programme participation: a gravity-based, hierarchical modelling approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 145-166, January.
    23. Ullah, S M Asik & Tani, Masakazu & Tsuchiya, Jun & Rahman, M.Abiar & Moriyama, Masao, 2022. "Impact of protected areas and co-management on forest cover: A case study from Teknaf Wildlife Sanctuary, Bangladesh," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    24. World Bank Group, 2015. "Tanzania Mainland Poverty Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 22021, The World Bank Group.
    25. Liv Osland & Ingrid Sandvig Thorsen & Inge Thorsen, 2016. "Accounting For Local Spatial Heterogeneities In Housing Market Studies," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(5), pages 895-920, November.
    26. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    27. Arnab Roy Chowdhury, 2019. "International-domestic linkages in a developing-country context: the case of the Rohingyas in Bangladesh," Policy Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3-4), pages 303-319, July.
    28. World Bank, 2020. "Ghana Poverty Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 34804, The World Bank Group.
    29. Ahmad AlShwawra, 2021. "Syrian Refugees’ Integration Policies in Jordanian Labor Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-16, June.
    30. Liu, 2018. "Genomics And Its Impact," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Xavier Pavie (ed.), CREATIVITY, IMAGINATION AND INNOVATION Perspectives and Inspirational Stories, chapter 37, pages 305-313, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    31. World Bank, 2020. "Bolstering Poverty Reduction in Rwanda," World Bank Publications - Reports 34753, The World Bank Group.
    32. World Bank, 2020. "Gabon Poverty Assessment [Gabon Rapport sur L’Evaluation de la Pauvreté]," World Bank Publications - Reports 33429, The World Bank Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hofman, Irna & Visser, Oane, 2021. "Towards a geography of window dressing and benign neglect: The state, donors and elites in Tajikistan’s trajectories of post-Soviet agrarian change," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    2. Marc Marí-Dell’Olmo & Miguel Ángel Martínez-Beneito, 2015. "A Multilevel Regression Model for Geographical Studies in Sets of Non-Adjacent Cities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(8), pages 1-12, August.
    3. Eibich, Peter & Ziebarth, Nicolas, 2014. "Examining the Structure of Spatial Health Effects in Germany Using Hierarchical Bayes Models," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 49, pages 305-320.
    4. Mayer Alvo & Jingrui Mu, 2023. "COVID-19 Data Analysis Using Bayesian Models and Nonparametric Geostatistical Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-13, March.
    5. Liang, Zhongyao & Qian, Song S. & Wu, Sifeng & Chen, Huili & Liu, Yong & Yu, Yanhong & Yi, Xuan, 2019. "Using Bayesian change point model to enhance understanding of the shifting nutrients-phytoplankton relationship," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 393(C), pages 120-126.
    6. Massimo Bilancia & Giacomo Demarinis, 2014. "Bayesian scanning of spatial disease rates with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA)," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(1), pages 71-94, March.
    7. Douglas R. M. Azevedo & Marcos O. Prates & Dipankar Bandyopadhyay, 2021. "MSPOCK: Alleviating Spatial Confounding in Multivariate Disease Mapping Models," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 26(3), pages 464-491, September.
    8. Francisca Corpas-Burgos & Miguel A. Martinez-Beneito, 2021. "An Autoregressive Disease Mapping Model for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, February.
    9. Li Xu & Qingshan Jiang & David R. Lairson, 2019. "Spatio-Temporal Variation of Gender-Specific Hypertension Risk: Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-26, November.
    10. Isabel Martínez-Pérez & Verónica González-Iglesias & Valentín Rodríguez Suárez & Ana Fernández-Somoano, 2021. "Spatial Distribution of Hospitalizations for Ischemic Heart Diseases in the Central Region of Asturias, Spain," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-10, November.
    11. F. Corpas-Burgos & P. Botella-Rocamora & M. A. Martinez-Beneito, 2019. "On the convenience of heteroscedasticity in highly multivariate disease mapping," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 28(4), pages 1229-1250, December.
    12. Alexandra Schmidt & Ajax Moreira & Steven Helfand & Thais Fonseca, 2009. "Spatial stochastic frontier models: accounting for unobserved local determinants of inefficiency," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 101-112, April.
    13. Maike Tahden & Juliane Manitz & Klaus Baumgardt & Gerhard Fell & Thomas Kneib & Guido Hegasy, 2016. "Epidemiological and Ecological Characterization of the EHEC O104:H4 Outbreak in Hamburg, Germany, 2011," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    14. Peter Congdon, 2011. "The Spatial Pattern of Suicide in the US in Relation to Deprivation, Fragmentation and Rurality," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(10), pages 2101-2122, August.
    15. Zhao, Qing & Boomer, G. Scott & Silverman, Emily & Fleming, Kathy, 2017. "Accounting for the temporal variation of spatial effect improves inference and projection of population dynamics models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 360(C), pages 252-259.
    16. Shadi Rahimzadeh & Beata Burczynska & Alireza Ahmadvand & Ali Sheidaei & Sara Khademioureh & Forough Pazhuheian & Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam & James Bentham & Farshad Farzadfar & Mariachiara Di Cesare, 2021. "Geographical and socioeconomic inequalities in female breast cancer incidence and mortality in Iran: A Bayesian spatial analysis of registry data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-16, March.
    17. Darren J. Mayne & Geoffrey G. Morgan & Bin B. Jalaludin & Adrian E. Bauman, 2018. "Does Walkability Contribute to Geographic Variation in Psychosocial Distress? A Spatial Analysis of 91,142 Members of the 45 and Up Study in Sydney, Australia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-24, February.
    18. Marcus L. Nascimento & Kelly C. M. Gonçalves & Mario Jorge Mendonça, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Instrumental Variables Regression with Missing Data: A Bayesian Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 29-47, June.
    19. Marco Gramatica & Peter Congdon & Silvia Liverani, 2021. "Bayesian modelling for spatially misaligned health areal data: A multiple membership approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(3), pages 645-666, June.
    20. Wu, Peijie & Meng, Xianghai & Song, Li, 2021. "Bayesian space–time modeling of bicycle and pedestrian crash risk by injury severity levels to explore the long-term spatiotemporal effects," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:183:y:2024:i:c:s0305750x24001992. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.