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Multiple COVID-19 Waves and Vaccination Effectiveness in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Lixin Lin

    (Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)

  • Yanji Zhao

    (Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)

  • Boqiang Chen

    (Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)

  • Daihai He

    (Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)

Abstract

(1) Background: The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused multiple waves of cases and deaths in the United States (US). The wild strain, the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) and the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) were the principal culprits behind these waves. To mitigate the pandemic, the vaccination campaign was started in January 2021. While the vaccine efficacy is less than 1, breakthrough infections were reported. This work aims to examine the effects of the vaccination across 50 US states and the District of Columbia. (2) Methods: Based on the classic Susceptible—Exposed—Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) model, we add a delay class between infectious and death, a death class and a vaccinated class. We compare two special cases of our new model to simulate the effects of the vaccination. The first case expounds the vaccinated individuals with full protection or not, compared to the second case where all vaccinated individuals have the same level of protection. (3) Results: Through fitting the two approaches to reported COVID-19 deaths in all 50 US states and the District of Columbia, we found that these two approaches are equivalent. We calculate that the death toll could be 1.67–3.33 fold in most states if the vaccine was not available. The median and mean infection fatality ratio are estimated to be approximately 0.6 and 0.7%. (4) Conclusions: The two approaches we compared were equivalent in evaluating the effectiveness of the vaccination campaign in the US. In addition, the effect of the vaccination campaign was significant, with a large number of deaths averted.

Suggested Citation

  • Lixin Lin & Yanji Zhao & Boqiang Chen & Daihai He, 2022. "Multiple COVID-19 Waves and Vaccination Effectiveness in the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-12, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:4:p:2282-:d:751592
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Surya Singh & Mujaheed Shaikh & Katharina Hauck & Marisa Miraldo, 2021. "Impacts of introducing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 daily growth rate and compliance in the United States," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(12), pages 2021359118-, March.
    2. Yun Li & Moming Li & Megan Rice & Yanfang Su & Chaowei Yang, 2021. "Phased Implementation of COVID-19 Vaccination: Rapid Assessment of Policy Adoption, Reach and Effectiveness to Protect the Most Vulnerable in the US," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-14, July.
    3. Eunha Shim, 2021. "Projecting the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants and the Vaccination Program on the Fourth Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-11, July.
    4. David Adam, 2021. "What scientists know about new, fast-spreading coronavirus variants," Nature, Nature, vol. 594(7861), pages 19-20, June.
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    1. Lloyd A. C. Chapman & Maite Aubry & Noémie Maset & Timothy W. Russell & Edward S. Knock & John A. Lees & Henri-Pierre Mallet & Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau & Adam J. Kucharski, 2023. "Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Zengwang Xu & Bin Jiang, 2022. "Effects of Social Vulnerability and Spatial Accessibility on COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage: A Census-Tract Level Study in Milwaukee County, USA," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-13, September.
    3. Teddy Lazebnik & Svetlana Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky & Shai Ashkenazi & Eugene Levner & Arriel Benis, 2022. "Early Detection and Control of the Next Epidemic Wave Using Health Communications: Development of an Artificial Intelligence-Based Tool and Its Validation on COVID-19 Data from the US," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-17, November.

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