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Impacts of introducing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 daily growth rate and compliance in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Surya Singh

    (Health Economics Research Center, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, United Kingdom)

  • Mujaheed Shaikh

    (Political Economy Cluster, Hertie School, 10117 Berlin, Germany)

  • Katharina Hauck

    (Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom)

  • Marisa Miraldo

    (Department of Economics and Public Policy, Business School, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Center for Health Economics and Policy Innovation, Business School, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom)

Abstract

We evaluate the impacts of implementing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in US counties on the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases and compliance, measured through the percentage of devices staying home, and evaluate whether introducing and lifting NPIs protecting selective populations is an effective strategy. We use difference-in-differences methods, leveraging on daily county-level data and exploit the staggered introduction and lifting of policies across counties over time. We also assess heterogenous impacts due to counties’ population characteristics, namely ethnicity and household income. Results show that introducing NPIs led to a reduction in cases through the percentage of devices staying home. When counties lifted NPIs, they benefited from reduced mobility outside of the home during the lockdown, but only for a short period. In the long term, counties experienced diminished health and mobility gains accrued from previously implemented policies. Notably, we find heterogenous impacts due to population characteristics implying that measures can mitigate the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 on marginalized populations and find that selectively targeting populations may not be effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Surya Singh & Mujaheed Shaikh & Katharina Hauck & Marisa Miraldo, 2021. "Impacts of introducing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 daily growth rate and compliance in the United States," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(12), pages 2021359118-, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:118:y:2021:p:e2021359118
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    Cited by:

    1. Theologos Dergiades & Costas Milas & Elias Mossialos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2023. "COVID-19 anti-contagion policies and economic support measures in the USA," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 613-630.
    2. Mello, Marco & Moscelli, Giuseppe, 2022. "Voting, contagion and the trade-off between public health and political rights: Quasi-experimental evidence from the Italian 2020 polls," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1025-1052.
    3. Federico Crudu & Roberta Di Stefano & Giovanni Mellace & Silvia Tiezzi, 2022. "The Gray Zone," Department of Economics University of Siena 874, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    4. William Clyde & Andreas Kakolyris & Georgios Koimisis, 2021. "A Study of the Effectiveness of Governmental Strategies for Managing Mortality from COVID-19," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 487-505, October.
    5. Lili Li & Araz Taeihagh & Si Ying Tan, 2023. "A scoping review of the impacts of COVID-19 physical distancing measures on vulnerable population groups," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-19, December.
    6. Yong Ge & Xilin Wu & Wenbin Zhang & Xiaoli Wang & Die Zhang & Jianghao Wang & Haiyan Liu & Zhoupeng Ren & Nick W. Ruktanonchai & Corrine W. Ruktanonchai & Eimear Cleary & Yongcheng Yao & Amy Wesolowsk, 2023. "Effects of public-health measures for zeroing out different SARS-CoV-2 variants," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Virat Agrawal & Jonathan H. Cantor & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Responses on Excess Mortality," NBER Working Papers 28930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Lixin Lin & Yanji Zhao & Boqiang Chen & Daihai He, 2022. "Multiple COVID-19 Waves and Vaccination Effectiveness in the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-12, February.
    9. Crudu, Federico & Di Stefano, Roberta & Mellace, Giovanni & Tiezzi, Silvia, 2024. "The gray zone: How not imposing a strict lockdown at the beginning of a pandemic can cost many lives," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Galanis, Giorgos & Georgiadis, Andreas, 2024. "Socioeconomic conditions and contagion dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic with and without mitigation measures: Evidence from 185 countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    11. Arija Prieto, Pablo & Antonini, Marcello & Ammi, Mehdi & Genie, Mesfin & Paolucci, Francesco, 2024. "Political determinants of COVID-19 restrictions and vaccine rollouts: The case of regional elections in Italy and Spain," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Lu Zhong & Mamadou Diagne & Qi Wang & Jianxi Gao, 2022. "Vaccination and three non-pharmaceutical interventions determine the dynamics of COVID-19 in the US," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.

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