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Projecting the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants and the Vaccination Program on the Fourth Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Korea

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  • Eunha Shim

    (Department of Mathematics, Soongsil University, Seoul 06978, Korea)

Abstract

Vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are currently administered in South Korea; however, vaccine supply is limited. Considering constraints in vaccine supply and the emergence of variant strains, we evaluated the impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccination program in reducing incidence, ICU hospitalization, and deaths in South Korea. We developed an age-structured model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission parameterized with Korean demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Using our model, we analyzed the impact of the COVID-19 vaccination program during the fourth wave of the pandemic in South Korea in reducing disease burden. We projected that the vaccination program can reduce the overall attack rate to 3.9% from 6.9% without vaccination, over 150 days, starting from 5 July 2021. The highest relative reduction (50%) was observed among individuals aged 50–59 years. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, such as ICU hospitalizations and deaths, decreasing them by 45% and 43%, respectively. In the presence of the Delta variant, vaccination is expected to reduce the overall attack rate to 11.9% from 26.9%. Our results indicate that the impact of vaccination can be substantially affected by the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants. Furthermore, herd immunity is unlikely to be achieved with the potential emergence of the Delta variant, inconsistent with the blueprint of the South Korean government.

Suggested Citation

  • Eunha Shim, 2021. "Projecting the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants and the Vaccination Program on the Fourth Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-11, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:14:p:7578-:d:595514
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ewen Callaway, 2021. "Delta coronavirus variant: scientists brace for impact," Nature, Nature, vol. 595(7865), pages 17-18, July.
    2. Joël Mossong & Niel Hens & Mark Jit & Philippe Beutels & Kari Auranen & Rafael Mikolajczyk & Marco Massari & Stefania Salmaso & Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba & Jacco Wallinga & Janneke Heijne & Malgorzata Sa, 2008. "Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(3), pages 1-1, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Faisal F. Alamri & Aslam Khan & Abdulaziz O. Alshehri & Ahmed Assiri & Shahd I. Khan & Leen A. Aldwihi & Munirah A. Alkathiri & Omar A. Almohammed & Ahmad M. Salamatullah & Amer S. Alali & Waleed Bado, 2021. "Association of Healthy Diet with Recovery Time from COVID-19: Results from a Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-12, August.
    2. Lixin Lin & Yanji Zhao & Boqiang Chen & Daihai He, 2022. "Multiple COVID-19 Waves and Vaccination Effectiveness in the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-12, February.
    3. Zengwang Xu & Bin Jiang, 2022. "Effects of Social Vulnerability and Spatial Accessibility on COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage: A Census-Tract Level Study in Milwaukee County, USA," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-13, September.

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