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Investigation of Intense Precipitation from Tropical Cyclones during the 21st Century by Dynamical Downscaling of CCSM4 RCP 4.5

Author

Listed:
  • Mathieu Mure-Ravaud

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis. 1 Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616, USA)

  • M. Levent Kavvas

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis. 1 Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616, USA)

  • Alain Dib

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis. 1 Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616, USA)

Abstract

In this article, a dynamical downscaling (DD) procedure is proposed to downscale tropical cyclones (TCs) from a general circulation model, with the goal of investigating inland intense precipitation from these storms in the future. This DD procedure is sequential as it is performed from the large scale to the small scale within a one-way nesting modeling framework with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Furthermore, it involves a two-step validation process to ensure that the model produces realistic TCs, both in terms of their general properties and in terms of their intense precipitation statistics. In addition, this procedure makes use of several algorithms such as for the detection and tracking of TCs, with the objective of automatizing the DD process as much as possible so that this approach could be used to downscale massively many climate projections with several sets of model options. The DD approach was applied to the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 4 using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 during the period 2005–2100, and the resulting TCs and their intense precipitation were examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathieu Mure-Ravaud & M. Levent Kavvas & Alain Dib, 2019. "Investigation of Intense Precipitation from Tropical Cyclones during the 21st Century by Dynamical Downscaling of CCSM4 RCP 4.5," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-27, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:5:p:687-:d:209157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Done & Greg Holland & Cindy Bruyère & L. Leung & Asuka Suzuki-Parker, 2015. "Modeling high-impact weather and climate: lessons from a tropical cyclone perspective," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 381-395, April.
    2. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
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