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Future Heat Waves in Different European Capitals Based on Climate Change Indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Jürgen Junk

    (Environmental Research and Innovation, Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, 4422 Luxembourg, Luxembourg)

  • Klaus Goergen

    (Institute of Bio- and Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere) Research Centre, 52428 Jülich, Germany
    Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, 52428 Jülich, Germany)

  • Andreas Krein

    (Environmental Research and Innovation, Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, 4422 Luxembourg, Luxembourg)

Abstract

Changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves have shown substantial negative impacts on public health. At the same time, climate change towards increasing air temperatures throughout Europe will foster such extreme events, leading to the population being more exposed to them and societies becoming more vulnerable. Based on two climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5) we analysed the frequency and intensity of heat waves for three capital cities in Europe representing a North–South transect (London, Luxembourg, Rome). We used indices proposed by the Expert Team on Sector-Specific Climate Indices of the World Meteorological Organization to analyze the number of heat waves, the number of days that contribute to heat waves, the length of the longest heat waves, as well as the mean temperature during heat waves. The threshold for the definition of heat waves is calculated based on a reference period of 30 years for each of the three cities, allowing for a direct comparison of the projected changes between the cities. Changes in the projected air temperature between a reference period (1971–2000) and three future periods (2001–2030 near future, 2031–2060 middle future, and 2061–2090 far future) are statistically significant for all three cities and both emission scenarios. Considerable similarities could be identified for the different heat wave indices. This directly affects the risk of the exposed population and might also negatively influence food security and water supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Jürgen Junk & Klaus Goergen & Andreas Krein, 2019. "Future Heat Waves in Different European Capitals Based on Climate Change Indicators," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-13, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:20:p:3959-:d:277597
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
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    1. Jürgen Junk & Arturo Torres & Moussa El Jaroudi & Michael Eickermann, 2024. "Impact of Climate Change on the Phenology of Winter Oilseed Rape ( Brassica napus L.)," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-12, June.
    2. Inga Dailidienė & Inesa Servaitė & Remigijus Dailidė & Erika Vasiliauskienė & Lolita Rapolienė & Ramūnas Povilanskas & Donatas Valiukas, 2023. "Increasing Trends of Heat Waves and Tropical Nights in Coastal Regions (The Case Study of Lithuania Seaside Cities)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Giorgos Papadopoulos & Stavros C. Keppas & Daphne Parliari & Serafim Kontos & Sofia Papadogiannaki & Dimitrios Melas, 2024. "Future Projections of Heat Waves and Associated Mortality Risk in a Coastal Mediterranean City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-23, January.

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