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ENSEMBLES-based assessment of regional climate effects in Luxembourg and their impact on vegetation

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  • K. Goergen
  • J. Beersma
  • L. Hoffmann
  • J. Junk

Abstract

Projected future regional climate changes in Luxembourg are assessed based on a six-member ensemble of regional climate models (RCM) from the ENSEMBLES project. The key aspects are projected changes in air temperature and their impacts on vegetation. Up to now, there have been only few assessments of future climate conditions for Luxembourg. As agriculture is the dominant land use in Luxembourg, possible effects on crops and vegetation in general are highly relevant. Different RCMs at 25 km spatial and a daily temporal resolution, ranging from 1961 to 2100 based on the SRES A1B emission scenario are used. To reduce systematic biases in the RCM-derived time series, a bias correction is applied. Multi-model annual mean temperatures are projected to increase by 3.1 °C between the reference time span (1961 to 1990) and the far future (2069 to 2098). Clear change signals are found in seasonal bivariate frequency distributions of air temperature and precipitation. Derived impacts are an elongation of the thermal vegetation period by 6.2 days per decade due to an earlier onset in spring; growing degree day sums show a substantial increase leading to potentially better growth conditions; the earlier onset of the vegetation period causes an increase in late frost risk, especially in the near future (2021 to 2050) projections compared to the reference period. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • K. Goergen & J. Beersma & L. Hoffmann & J. Junk, 2013. "ENSEMBLES-based assessment of regional climate effects in Luxembourg and their impact on vegetation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 761-773, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:119:y:2013:i:3:p:761-773
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0756-x
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    1. Gian-Reto Walther & Eric Post & Peter Convey & Annette Menzel & Camille Parmesan & Trevor J. C. Beebee & Jean-Marc Fromentin & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Franz Bairlein, 2002. "Ecological responses to recent climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6879), pages 389-395, March.
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    1. J. Junk & L. Kouadio & P. Delfosse & M. Jarroudi, 2016. "Effects of regional climate change on brown rust disease in winter wheat," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 439-451, April.
    2. Jürgen Junk & Klaus Goergen & Andreas Krein, 2019. "Future Heat Waves in Different European Capitals Based on Climate Change Indicators," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-13, October.
    3. Jürgen Junk & Arturo Torres & Moussa El Jaroudi & Michael Eickermann, 2024. "Impact of Climate Change on the Phenology of Winter Oilseed Rape ( Brassica napus L.)," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-12, June.

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