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Antiviral Prophylaxis and Isolation for the Control of Pandemic Influenza

Author

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  • Qingxia Zhang

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, No. 2006, Xiyuan Avenue, West Hi-Tech Zone, Chengdu 611731, China)

  • Dingcheng Wang

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, No. 2006, Xiyuan Avenue, West Hi-Tech Zone, Chengdu 611731, China)

Abstract

Before effective vaccines become available, antiviral drugs are considered as the major control strategies for a pandemic influenza. However, perhaps such control strategies can be severely hindered by the low-efficacy of antiviral drugs. For this reason, using antiviral drugs and an isolation strategy is included in our study. A compartmental model that allows for imported exposed individuals and asymptomatic cases is used to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies via antiviral prophylaxis and isolation. Simulations show that isolation strategy plays a prominent role in containing transmission when antiviral drugs are not effective enough. Moreover, relatively few infected individuals need to be isolated per day. Because the accurate calculations of the needed numbers of antiviral drugs and the isolated infected are not easily available, we give two simple expressions approximating these numbers. We also derive an estimation for the total cost of these intervention strategies. These estimations obtained by a simple method provide a useful reference for the management department about the epidemic preparedness plans.

Suggested Citation

  • Qingxia Zhang & Dingcheng Wang, 2014. "Antiviral Prophylaxis and Isolation for the Control of Pandemic Influenza," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-23, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:11:y:2014:i:8:p:7690-7712:d:38717
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Niels G Becker & Dingcheng Wang, 2011. "Can Antiviral Drugs Contain Pandemic Influenza Transmission?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(3), pages 1-9, March.
    2. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A. T. Cummings & Christophe Fraser & James C. Cajka & Philip C. Cooley & Donald S. Burke, 2006. "Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 442(7101), pages 448-452, July.
    3. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A.T. Cummings & Simon Cauchemez & Christophe Fraser & Steven Riley & Aronrag Meeyai & Sopon Iamsirithaworn & Donald S. Burke, 2005. "Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7056), pages 209-214, September.
    4. K. S. Li & Y. Guan & J. Wang & G. J. D. Smith & K. M. Xu & L. Duan & A. P. Rahardjo & P. Puthavathana & C. Buranathai & T. D. Nguyen & A. T. S. Estoepangestie & A. Chaisingh & P. Auewarakul & H. T. Lo, 2004. "Genesis of a highly pathogenic and potentially pandemic H5N1 influenza virus in eastern Asia," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6996), pages 209-213, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qingxia Zhang & Dingcheng Wang, 2015. "Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, August.

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