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Enhancement of Collective Immunity in Tokyo Metropolitan Area by Selective Vaccination against an Emerging Influenza Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Masaya M Saito
  • Seiya Imoto
  • Rui Yamaguchi
  • Masaharu Tsubokura
  • Masahiro Kami
  • Haruka Nakada
  • Hiroki Sato
  • Satoru Miyano
  • Tomoyuki Higuchi

Abstract

Vaccination is a preventive measure against influenza that does not require placing restrictions on social activities. However, since the stockpile of vaccine that can be prepared before the arrival of an emerging pandemic strain is generally quite limited, one has to select priority target groups to which the first stockpile is distributed. In this paper, we study a simulation-based priority target selection method with the goal of enhancing the collective immunity of the whole population. To model the region in which the disease spreads, we consider an urban area composed of suburbs and central areas connected by a single commuter train line. Human activity is modelled following an agent-based approach. The degree to which collective immunity is enhanced is judged by the attack rate in unvaccinated people. The simulation results show that if students and office workers are given exclusive priority in the first three months, the attack rate can be reduced from in the baseline case down to 1–2%. In contrast, random vaccination only slightly reduces the attack rate. It should be noted that giving preference to active social groups does not mean sacrificing those at high risk, which corresponds to the elderly in our simulation model. Compared with the random administration of vaccine to all social groups, this design successfully reduces the attack rate across all age groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Masaya M Saito & Seiya Imoto & Rui Yamaguchi & Masaharu Tsubokura & Masahiro Kami & Haruka Nakada & Hiroki Sato & Satoru Miyano & Tomoyuki Higuchi, 2013. "Enhancement of Collective Immunity in Tokyo Metropolitan Area by Selective Vaccination against an Emerging Influenza Pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(9), pages 1-9, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0072866
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0072866
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A. T. Cummings & Christophe Fraser & James C. Cajka & Philip C. Cooley & Donald S. Burke, 2006. "Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 442(7101), pages 448-452, July.
    2. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A.T. Cummings & Simon Cauchemez & Christophe Fraser & Steven Riley & Aronrag Meeyai & Sopon Iamsirithaworn & Donald S. Burke, 2005. "Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7056), pages 209-214, September.
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