IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceps/v46y2012i1p33-45.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic redistribution of mitigation resources during influenza pandemics

Author

Listed:
  • Savachkin, Alex
  • Uribe, Andrés

Abstract

The Institute of Medicine (IOM) has pointed out that the existing pandemic mitigation models lack the dynamic decision support capability. In this paper, we present a simulation optimization model to generate dynamic strategies for distribution of limited mitigation resources, such as vaccines and antivirals, over a network of regional outbreaks. The model has the capability to redistribute the resources remaining from previous allocations in response to changes in the pandemic progress. The model strives to minimize the impact of ongoing outbreaks and the expected impact of potential outbreaks, considering measures of morbidity, mortality, and social distancing, translated into the societal and economic costs of lost productivity and medical services. The model is implemented on a simulated H5N1 outbreak involving four counties in the state of Florida, U.S. with over four million inhabitants. The performance of our strategy is compared to that of a myopic distribution strategy. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of variability of some critical factors on policy performance. The methodology is intended to support public health policy on effective distribution of limited mitigation resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Savachkin, Alex & Uribe, Andrés, 2012. "Dynamic redistribution of mitigation resources during influenza pandemics," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 33-45.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:46:y:2012:i:1:p:33-45
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2011.05.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012111000292
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.seps.2011.05.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nigmatulina, Karima R. & Larson, Richard C., 2009. "Living with influenza: Impacts of government imposed and voluntarily selected interventions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 613-627, June.
    2. Christina E. Mills & James M. Robins & Marc Lipsitch, 2004. "Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7019), pages 904-906, December.
    3. Richard C. Larson, 2007. "Simple Models of Influenza Progression Within a Heterogeneous Population," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 399-412, June.
    4. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A. T. Cummings & Christophe Fraser & James C. Cajka & Philip C. Cooley & Donald S. Burke, 2006. "Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 442(7101), pages 448-452, July.
    5. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A.T. Cummings & Simon Cauchemez & Christophe Fraser & Steven Riley & Aronrag Meeyai & Sopon Iamsirithaworn & Donald S. Burke, 2005. "Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7056), pages 209-214, September.
    6. Vittoria Colizza & Alain Barrat & Marc Barthelemy & Alain-Jacques Valleron & Alessandro Vespignani, 2007. "Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juliano Marçal Lopes & Coralys Colon Morales & Michelle Alvarado & Vidal Augusto Z. C. Melo & Leonardo Batista Paiva & Eduardo Mario Dias & Panos M. Pardalos, 2022. "Optimization methods for large-scale vaccine supply chains: a rapid review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 316(1), pages 699-721, September.
    2. Chowdhury, Priyabrata & Paul, Sanjoy Kumar & Kaisar, Shahriar & Moktadir, Md. Abdul, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic related supply chain studies: A systematic review," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    3. Maciel M. Queiroz & Dmitry Ivanov & Alexandre Dolgui & Samuel Fosso Wamba, 2022. "Impacts of epidemic outbreaks on supply chains: mapping a research agenda amid the COVID-19 pandemic through a structured literature review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 319(1), pages 1159-1196, December.
    4. Sayarshad, Hamid R., 2023. "Interventions in demand and supply sides for vaccine supply chain: An analysis on monkeypox vaccine," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 11(C).
    5. Xiaoyan Xu & Suresh P. Sethi & Sai‐Ho Chung & Tsan‐Ming Choi, 2023. "Reforming global supply chain management under pandemics: The GREAT‐3Rs framework," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(2), pages 524-546, February.
    6. Muhammad Umar Farooq & Amjad Hussain & Tariq Masood & Muhammad Salman Habib, 2021. "Supply Chain Operations Management in Pandemics: A State-of-the-Art Review Inspired by COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-33, February.
    7. Manupati, Vijaya Kumar & Schoenherr, Tobias & Subramanian, Nachiappan & Ramkumar, M. & Soni, Bhanushree & Panigrahi, Suraj, 2021. "A multi-echelon dynamic cold chain for managing vaccine distribution," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    8. Gong, Jiangyue & Gujjula, Krishna Reddy & Ntaimo, Lewis, 2023. "An integrated chance constraints approach for optimal vaccination strategies under uncertainty for COVID-19," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ali Ekici & Pınar Keskinocak & Julie L. Swann, 2014. "Modeling Influenza Pandemic and Planning Food Distribution," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 16(1), pages 11-27, February.
    2. van der Weijden, Charlie P. & Stein, Mart L. & Jacobi, André J. & Kretzschmar, Mirjam E.E. & Reintjes, Ralf & van Steenbergen, Jim E. & Timen, Aura, 2013. "Choosing pandemic parameters for pandemic preparedness planning: A comparison of pandemic scenarios prior to and following the influenza A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 52-62.
    3. Lawrence M. Wein & Michael P. Atkinson, 2009. "Assessing Infection Control Measures for Pandemic Influenza," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(7), pages 949-962, July.
    4. T Déirdre Hollingsworth & Don Klinkenberg & Hans Heesterbeek & Roy M Anderson, 2011. "Mitigation Strategies for Pandemic Influenza A: Balancing Conflicting Policy Objectives," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(2), pages 1-11, February.
    5. Marcel Salathé & James H Jones, 2010. "Dynamics and Control of Diseases in Networks with Community Structure," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(4), pages 1-11, April.
    6. Duijzer, Lotty Evertje & van Jaarsveld, Willem & Dekker, Rommert, 2018. "The benefits of combining early aspecific vaccination with later specific vaccination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 606-619.
    7. Carrasco, L R & Lee, V J & Chen, M I & Matchar, D B & Thompson, J P & Cook, A R, 2011. "Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global epidemic-economic perspective," MPRA Paper 57763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. S. M. Mniszewski & S. Y. Del Valle & P. D. Stroud & J. M. Riese & S. J. Sydoriak, 2008. "Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 209-221, September.
    9. Jeremy Hadidjojo & Siew Ann Cheong, 2011. "Equal Graph Partitioning on Estimated Infection Network as an Effective Epidemic Mitigation Measure," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(7), pages 1-10, July.
    10. Moshe B Hoshen & Anthony H Burton & Themis J V Bowcock, 2007. "Simulating disease transmission dynamics at a multi-scale level," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-34.
    11. James Truscott & Neil M Ferguson, 2012. "Evaluating the Adequacy of Gravity Models as a Description of Human Mobility for Epidemic Modelling," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-12, October.
    12. Eva K. Lee & Chien-Hung Chen & Ferdinand Pietz & Bernard Benecke, 2009. "Modeling and Optimizing the Public-Health Infrastructure for Emergency Response," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 39(5), pages 476-490, October.
    13. Victor W. Chu & Raymond K. Wong & Chi-Hung Chi & Wei Zhou & Ivan Ho, 2017. "The design of a cloud-based tracker platform based on system-of-systems service architecture," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 1283-1299, December.
    14. Pedro, S.A. & Rwezaura, H. & Mandipezar, A. & Tchuenche, J.M., 2021. "Qualitative Analysis of an influenza model with biomedical interventions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    15. Naveed Chehrazi & Lauren E. Cipriano & Eva A. Enns, 2019. "Dynamics of Drug Resistance: Optimal Control of an Infectious Disease," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 619-650, May.
    16. Eva K. Lee & Ferdinand Pietz & Bernard Benecke & Jacquelyn Mason & Greg Burel, 2013. "Advancing Public Health and Medical Preparedness with Operations Research," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 43(1), pages 79-98, February.
    17. Nicole C. J. Brienen & Aura Timen & Jacco Wallinga & Jim E. Van Steenbergen & Peter F. M. Teunis, 2010. "The Effect of Mask Use on the Spread of Influenza During a Pandemic," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(8), pages 1210-1218, August.
    18. Akira Watanabe & Hiroyuki Matsuda, 2023. "Effectiveness of feedback control and the trade-off between death by COVID-19 and costs of countermeasures," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 46-61, March.
    19. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michèle, 2023. "Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13295, Inter-American Development Bank.
    20. Andy Hong & Sandip Chakrabarti, 2023. "Compact living or policy inaction? Effects of urban density and lockdown on the COVID-19 outbreak in the US," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(9), pages 1588-1609, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:46:y:2012:i:1:p:33-45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/seps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.