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Epidemic Spreading in Urban Areas Using Agent-Based Transportation Models

Author

Listed:
  • Jürgen Hackl

    (Institute of Construction and Infrastructure Management, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Thibaut Dubernet

    (Institute for Transport Planning and Systems, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract

Human mobility is a key element in the understanding of epidemic spreading. Thus, correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for studying large-scale spatial transmission of infectious diseases and improving epidemic control. In this study, a large-scale agent-based transport simulation (MATSim) is linked with a generic epidemic spread model to simulate the spread of communicable diseases in an urban environment. The use of an agent-based model allows reproduction of the real-world behavior of individuals’ daily path in an urban setting and allows the capture of interactions among them, in the form of a spatial-temporal social network. This model is used to study seasonal influenza outbreaks in the metropolitan area of Zurich, Switzerland. The observations of the agent-based models are compared with results from classical SIR models. The model presented is a prototype that can be used to analyze multiple scenarios in the case of a disease spread at an urban scale, considering variations of different model parameters settings. The results of this simulation can help to improve comprehension of the disease spread dynamics and to take better steps towards the prevention and control of an epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Jürgen Hackl & Thibaut Dubernet, 2019. "Epidemic Spreading in Urban Areas Using Agent-Based Transportation Models," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-14, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jftint:v:11:y:2019:i:4:p:92-:d:220787
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paolo Bajardi & Chiara Poletto & Jose J Ramasco & Michele Tizzoni & Vittoria Colizza & Alessandro Vespignani, 2011. "Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, January.
    2. Stephen Eubank & Hasan Guclu & V. S. Anil Kumar & Madhav V. Marathe & Aravind Srinivasan & Zoltán Toroczkai & Nan Wang, 2004. "Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 429(6988), pages 180-184, May.
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    1. Calum MacRury & Nykyta Polituchyi & Paweł Prałat & Kinga Siuta & Przemysław Szufel, 2024. "Optimizing transport frequency in multi-layered urban transportation networks for pandemic prevention," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 381-418, June.
    2. Seyyed-Mahdi Hosseini-Motlagh & Mohammad Reza Ghatreh Samani & Behnam Karimi, 2023. "Resilient and social health service network design to reduce the effect of COVID-19 outbreak," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 328(1), pages 903-975, September.
    3. Zeng, Jia-Ying & Lu, Ping & Wei, Ying & Chen, Xin & Lin, Kai-Biao, 2023. "Deep reinforcement learning based medical supplies dispatching model for major infectious diseases: Case study of COVID-19," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 11(C).
    4. Moritz Kersting & Andreas Bossert & Leif Sörensen & Benjamin Wacker & Jan Chr. Schlüter, 2021. "Predicting effectiveness of countermeasures during the COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa using agent-based simulation," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Lu, Zhong-Wen & Xu, Yuan-Hao & Chen, Jie & Hu, Mao-Bin, 2023. "Investigation of traffic-driven epidemic spreading by taxi trip data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 632(P1).
    6. Fatima-Zohra Younsi & Djamila Hamdadou, 2021. "Dynamic Contact Network Simulation Model Based on Multi-Agent Systems," International Journal of Healthcare Information Systems and Informatics (IJHISI), IGI Global, vol. 16(4), pages 1-21, October.
    7. Abderrahim Zannou & Abdelhak Boulaalam & El Habib Nfaoui, 2020. "SIoT: A New Strategy to Improve the Network Lifetime with an Efficient Search Process," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, December.
    8. Patrick Urrutia & David Wren & Chrysafis Vogiatzis & Ruriko Yoshida, 2022. "SARS-CoV-2 Dissemination Using a Network of the US Counties," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-23, June.
    9. Hosseini-Motlagh, Seyyed-Mahdi & Samani, Mohammad Reza Ghatreh & Homaei, Shamim, 2023. "Design of control strategies to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 pandemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 219-238.

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