IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceps/v78y2021ics0038012121000732.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Network effects in influenza spread: The impact of mobility and socio-economic factors

Author

Listed:
  • Burris, Courtney
  • Nikolaev, Alexander
  • Zhong, Shiran
  • Bian, Ling

Abstract

This paper introduces new methods of modeling and analyzing social networks that emerge in the context of disease spread. Four methods of constructing informative networks are presented, two of which use. static data and two use temporal data, namely individual citizen mobility observations taken over an extensive period of time. We show how the built networks can be analyzed, and how the numerical results can be interpreted, using network permutation-based surprise analysis. In doing so, we explain the relationship of surprise analysis with conventional network hypothesis testing and Quadratic Assignment Procedure regression. Surprise analysis is more comprehensive, and can be without limitation performed with any form(s) of network subgraphs, including those with multiple nodal attributes, weighted links, and temporal features. To illustrate our methodological work in application, we put them to use for interpreting networks constructed from the data collected over one year in an observational study in Buffalo and Erie counties in New York state during the 2016–2017 influenza season. Even with the limitations in the data size, our methods are able to reveal the global (city- and season-wide) patterns in the spread of influenza, taking into account population mobility and socio-economic factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Burris, Courtney & Nikolaev, Alexander & Zhong, Shiran & Bian, Ling, 2021. "Network effects in influenza spread: The impact of mobility and socio-economic factors," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:78:y:2021:i:c:s0038012121000732
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2021.101081
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012121000732
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.seps.2021.101081?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shiran Zhong & Ling Bian, 2016. "A Location-Centric Network Approach to Analyzing Epidemic Dynamics," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 106(2), pages 480-488, March.
    2. Paolo Bajardi & Chiara Poletto & Jose J Ramasco & Michele Tizzoni & Vittoria Colizza & Alessandro Vespignani, 2011. "Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, January.
    3. François Bavaud, 2016. "Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks: The Modes Permutation Test," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Roberto Patuelli & Giuseppe Arbia (ed.), Spatial Econometric Interaction Modelling, chapter 0, pages 67-83, Springer.
    4. Farasat, Alireza & Nikolaev, Alexander G., 2016. "Signed social structure optimization for shift assignment in the nurse scheduling problem," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 3-13.
    5. Christina E. Mills & James M. Robins & Marc Lipsitch, 2004. "Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7019), pages 904-906, December.
    6. Stephen Eubank & Hasan Guclu & V. S. Anil Kumar & Madhav V. Marathe & Aravind Srinivasan & Zoltán Toroczkai & Nan Wang, 2004. "Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 429(6988), pages 180-184, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kazancoglu, Yigit & Ekinci, Esra & Mangla, Sachin Kumar & Sezer, Muruvvet Deniz & Ozbiltekin-Pala, Melisa, 2023. "Impact of epidemic outbreaks (COVID-19) on global supply chains: A case of trade between Turkey and China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jürgen Hackl & Thibaut Dubernet, 2019. "Epidemic Spreading in Urban Areas Using Agent-Based Transportation Models," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-14, April.
    2. Michał Wielechowski & Katarzyna Czech & Łukasz Grzęda, 2020. "Decline in Mobility: Public Transport in Poland in the time of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-24, September.
    3. Shiran Zhong & Fenglong Ma & Jing Gao & Ling Bian, 2023. "Who Gets the Flu? Individualized Validation of Influenza-like Illness in Urban Spaces," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(10), pages 1-16, May.
    4. Xiaoyan Mu & Anthony Gar-On Yeh & Xiaohu Zhang, 2021. "The interplay of spatial spread of COVID-19 and human mobility in the urban system of China during the Chinese New Year," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(7), pages 1955-1971, September.
    5. Floriana Gargiulo & Sônia Ternes & Sylvie Huet & Guillaume Deffuant, 2010. "An Iterative Approach for Generating Statistically Realistic Populations of Households," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, January.
    6. Saturnino Luz & Masood Masoodian, 2022. "Exploring Environmental and Geographical Factors Influencing the Spread of Infectious Diseases with Interactive Maps," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-19, August.
    7. Christoph Zimmer & Reza Yaesoubi & Ted Cohen, 2017. "A Likelihood Approach for Real-Time Calibration of Stochastic Compartmental Epidemic Models," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, January.
    8. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "Spatial‐SIR with network structure and behavior: Lockdown rules and the Lucas critique," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 370-388.
    9. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2021. "Welfare costs of COVID‐19: Evidence from US counties," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 826-848, September.
    10. Arbia, Giuseppe & Bramante, Riccardo & Facchinetti, Silvia & Zappa, Diego, 2018. "Modeling inter-country spatial financial interactions with Graphical Lasso: An application to sovereign co-risk evaluation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 72-79.
    11. Victor W. Chu & Raymond K. Wong & Chi-Hung Chi & Wei Zhou & Ivan Ho, 2017. "The design of a cloud-based tracker platform based on system-of-systems service architecture," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 1283-1299, December.
    12. Michele Coscia & Ricardo Hausmann, 2015. "Evidence That Calls-Based and Mobility Networks Are Isomorphic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Richard C. Larson, 2007. "Simple Models of Influenza Progression Within a Heterogeneous Population," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 399-412, June.
    14. Askitas, Nikos & Tatsiramos, Konstantinos & Verheyden, Bertrand, 2020. "Lockdown Strategies, Mobility Patterns and COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13293, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Wang, Wenjun & Pan, Lin & Yuan, Ning & Zhang, Sen & Liu, Dong, 2015. "A comparative analysis of intra-city human mobility by taxi," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 420(C), pages 134-147.
    16. Hyeyoung Kim & Ningchuan Xiao & Mark Moritz & Rebecca Garabed & Laura W. Pomeroy, 2016. "Simulating the Transmission of Foot-And-Mouth Disease Among Mobile Herds in the Far North Region, Cameroon," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 19(2), pages 1-6.
    17. Mattia Mazzoli & Riccardo Gallotti & Filippo Privitera & Pere Colet & José J. Ramasco, 2023. "Spatial immunization to abate disease spreading in transportation hubs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Thombre, Anurag & Agarwal, Amit, 2021. "A paradigm shift in urban mobility: Policy insights from travel before and after COVID-19 to seize the opportunity," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 335-353.
    19. Qin, Wenjie & Tang, Sanyi, 2014. "The selection pressures induced non-smooth infectious disease model and bifurcation analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-171.
    20. Yeran Sun & Hongchao Fan & Ming Li & Alexander Zipf, 2016. "Identifying the city center using human travel flows generated from location-based social networking data," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 43(3), pages 480-498, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:78:y:2021:i:c:s0038012121000732. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/seps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.