IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v100y2021ics0140988321002838.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wind power intermittency and the balancing power market: Evidence from Denmark

Author

Listed:
  • Soini, Vesa

Abstract

Generated amounts of wind power fluctuate considerably over time due to weather patterns. Yet majority of wind power is sold in the day-ahead market, where producers are required to commit to a physical delivery 12–36h in advance. If the wind suddenly dies down, producers can cover their deficit either by purchasing from the intraday market or, as a last resort, from the balancing power market. This paper studies the pricing in the balancing power market during times of lower-than-expected wind power generation. Using data to construct ”wind power surplus”, defined as the difference between wind power prognosis and actual wind power production, this paper uses nonlinear regression methods to estimate the effect of wind surplus on the price of balancing power. The main finding is that the balancing power prices are consistently higher during times of lower-than-expected wind power production even after controlling for other factors. If we fix other covariates at their means and compute the predicted balancing power prices at the 5th and 95th percentile of wind power surplus, the difference is 26.8 DKK/MWH. For down-regulation, the corresponding figure is 21.9 DKK/MWH.

Suggested Citation

  • Soini, Vesa, 2021. "Wind power intermittency and the balancing power market: Evidence from Denmark," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:100:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321002838
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105381
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321002838
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105381?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cludius, Johanna & Hermann, Hauke & Matthes, Felix Chr. & Graichen, Verena, 2014. "The merit order effect of wind and photovoltaic electricity generation in Germany 2008–2016: Estimation and distributional implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 302-313.
    2. Benitez, Liliana E. & Benitez, Pablo C. & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2008. "The economics of wind power with energy storage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1973-1989, July.
    3. Ketterer, Janina C., 2014. "The impact of wind power generation on the electricity price in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-280.
    4. Hirth, Lion, 2013. "The market value of variable renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-236.
    5. Scorah, Hugh & Sopinka, Amy & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2012. "The economics of storage, transmission and drought: integrating variable wind power into spatially separated electricity grids," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 536-541.
    6. Ambec, Stefan & Crampes, Claude, 2012. "Electricity provision with intermittent sources of energy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 319-336.
    7. Skytte, Klaus, 1999. "The regulating power market on the Nordic power exchange Nord Pool: an econometric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 295-308, August.
    8. Simon N. Wood, 2011. "Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(1), pages 3-36, January.
    9. Traber, Thure & Kemfert, Claudia, 2011. "Gone with the wind? -- Electricity market prices and incentives to invest in thermal power plants under increasing wind energy supply," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 249-256, March.
    10. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Hirth, Lion & Knopf, Brigitte & Pahle, Michael & Schlömer, Steffen & Schmid, Eva & Ueckerdt, Falko, 2013. "On the economics of renewable energy sources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 12-23.
    11. Lion Hirth, 2013. "The Market Value of Variable Renewables. The Effect of Solar and Wind Power Variability on their Relative Price," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/36, European University Institute.
    12. Jónsson, Tryggvi & Pinson, Pierre & Madsen, Henrik, 2010. "On the market impact of wind energy forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 313-320, March.
    13. Seljom, Pernille & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2015. "Short-term uncertainty in long-term energy system models — A case study of wind power in Denmark," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 157-167.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. MURĂRAȘU Ioan Cătălin, 2023. "Analysis of the Volatility of Renewable Sources of Electricity in Romania and the Assessment of Their Capacity to Replace the Conventional Sources," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Bucharest Economic Academy, issue 01, March.
    2. Song, Qianqian & Wang, Bo & Wang, Zhaohua & Wen, Lei, 2024. "Multi-objective capacity configuration optimization of the combined wind - Storage system considering ELCC and LCOE," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    3. Siddique, Muhammad Bilal & Keles, Dogan & Scheller, Fabian & Nielsen, Per Sieverts, 2024. "Dispatch strategies for large-scale heat pump based district heating under high renewable share and risk-aversion: A multistage stochastic optimization approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Macedo, Daniela Pereira & Marques, António Cardoso & Damette, Olivier, 2020. "The impact of the integration of renewable energy sources in the electricity price formation: is the Merit-Order Effect occurring in Portugal?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Mulder, Machiel & Scholtens, Bert, 2016. "A plant-level analysis of the spill-over effects of the German Energiewende," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1259-1271.
    3. Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da, 2019. "The “Merit-order effect” of wind and solar power: Volatility and determinants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 54-62.
    4. Mwampashi, Muthe Mathias & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Konstandatos, Otto & Rai, Alan, 2021. "Wind generation and the dynamics of electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Zerrahn, Alexander, 2017. "Wind Power and Externalities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 245-260.
    6. Zipp, Alexander, 2017. "The marketability of variable renewable energy in liberalized electricity markets – An empirical analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1111-1121.
    7. Marshman, Daniel & Brear, Michael & Jeppesen, Matthew & Ring, Brendan, 2020. "Performance of wholesale electricity markets with high wind penetration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Odeh, Rodrigo Pérez & Watts, David, 2019. "Impacts of wind and solar spatial diversification on its market value: A case study of the Chilean electricity market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 442-461.
    9. Liebensteiner, Mario & Wrienz, Matthias, 2020. "Do Intermittent Renewables Threaten the Electricity Supply Security?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    10. Dillig, Marius & Jung, Manuel & Karl, Jürgen, 2016. "The impact of renewables on electricity prices in Germany – An estimation based on historic spot prices in the years 2011–2013," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 7-15.
    11. Thao Pham & Killian Lemoine, 2020. "Impacts of subsidized renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany : Evidence from a GARCH model with panel data," Working Papers hal-02568268, HAL.
    12. Auer, Benjamin R., 2016. "How does Germany's green energy policy affect electricity market volatility? An application of conditional autoregressive range models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 621-628.
    13. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Qu, Songze & Ancev, Tihomir, 2019. "The effect of wind and solar power generation on wholesale electricity prices in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 358-369.
    14. Winkler, Jenny & Gaio, Alberto & Pfluger, Benjamin & Ragwitz, Mario, 2016. "Impact of renewables on electricity markets – Do support schemes matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 157-167.
    15. Bell, William Paul & Wild, Phillip & Foster, John & Hewson, Michael, 2017. "Revitalising the wind power induced merit order effect to reduce wholesale and retail electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 224-241.
    16. David Wozabal & Christoph Graf & David Hirschmann, 2016. "The effect of intermittent renewables on the electricity price variance," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 38(3), pages 687-709, July.
    17. Pradhan, Ashis Kumar & Rout, Sandhyarani & Khan, Imran Ahmed, 2021. "Does market concentration affect wholesale electricity prices? An analysis of the Indian electricity sector in the COVID-19 pandemic context," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    18. Clò, Stefano & Cataldi, Alessandra & Zoppoli, Pietro, 2015. "The merit-order effect in the Italian power market: The impact of solar and wind generation on national wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 79-88.
    19. Clò, Stefano & D'Adamo, Gaetano, 2015. "The dark side of the sun: How solar power production affects the market value of solar and gas sources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 523-530.
    20. Marc Baudry & Clément Bonnet, 2019. "Demand-Pull Instruments and the Development of Wind Power in Europe: A Counterfactual Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 385-429, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wind power; Intermittency; Energy auctions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:100:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321002838. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.