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Research on Multiple Load Short-Term Forecasting Model of Integrated Energy Distribution System Based on Mogrifier-Quantum Weighted MELSTM

Author

Listed:
  • Peng Song

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China)

  • Zhisheng Zhang

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China)

Abstract

Accurate and efficient short-term forecasting of multiple loads is of great significance to the operation control and scheduling of integrated energy distribution systems. In order to improve the effect of load forecasting, a mogrifier-quantum weighted memory enhancement long short-term memory (Mogrifier-QWMELSTM) neural network forecasting model is proposed. Compared with the conventional LSTM neural network model, the model proposed in this paper has three improvements in model structure and model composition. First, the mogrifier is added to make the data fully interact with each other. This addition can help enhance the correlation between the front and rear data and improve generalization, which is the main disadvantage of LSTM neural network. Second, the memory enhancement mechanism is added on the forget gate to realize the extraction and recovery of forgotten information. The addition can help improve the gradient transmission ability in the learning process of the neural network, make the neural network remain sensitive to distant data information, and enhance the memory ability. Third, the model is composed of quantum weighted neurons. Compared with conventional neurons, quantum weighted neurons have significant advantages in nonlinear data processing and parallel computing, which help to improve the accuracy of load forecasting. The simulation results show that the weighted mean accuracy of the proposed model can reach more than 97.5% in summer and winter. Moreover, the proposed model has good forecasting effect on seven typical days in winter, which shows that the model has good stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng Song & Zhisheng Zhang, 2023. "Research on Multiple Load Short-Term Forecasting Model of Integrated Energy Distribution System Based on Mogrifier-Quantum Weighted MELSTM," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-13, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:9:p:3697-:d:1132810
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Songyao Wang & Zhisheng Zhang, 2021. "Short-Term Multiple Load Forecasting Model of Regional Integrated Energy System Based on QWGRU-MTL," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-13, October.
    2. Jieyun Zheng & Linyao Zhang & Jinpeng Chen & Guilian Wu & Shiyuan Ni & Zhijian Hu & Changhong Weng & Zhi Chen, 2021. "Multiple-Load Forecasting for Integrated Energy System Based on Copula-DBiLSTM," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Talaat, M. & Farahat, M.A. & Mansour, Noura & Hatata, A.Y., 2020. "Load forecasting based on grasshopper optimization and a multilayer feed-forward neural network using regressive approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    4. Shunli Wang & Pu Ren & Paul Takyi-Aninakwa & Siyu Jin & Carlos Fernandez, 2022. "A Critical Review of Improved Deep Convolutional Neural Network for Multi-Timescale State Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-27, July.
    5. Wang, Shunli & Takyi-Aninakwa, Paul & Jin, Siyu & Yu, Chunmei & Fernandez, Carlos & Stroe, Daniel-Ioan, 2022. "An improved feedforward-long short-term memory modeling method for the whole-life-cycle state of charge prediction of lithium-ion batteries considering current-voltage-temperature variation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
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