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A Global Solar Radiation Forecasting System Using Combined Supervised and Unsupervised Learning Models

Author

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  • Chih-Chiang Wei

    (Department of Marine Environmental Informatics & Center of Excellence for Ocean Engineering, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung 20224, Taiwan)

  • Yen-Chen Yang

    (Department of Marine Environmental Informatics & Center of Excellence for Ocean Engineering, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung 20224, Taiwan)

Abstract

One of the most important sources of energy is the sun. Taiwan is located at a 22–25° north latitude. Due to its proximity to the equator, it experiences only a small angle of sunlight incidence. Its unique geographical location can obtain sustainable and stable solar resources. This study uses research on solar radiation forecasts to maximize the benefits of solar power generation, and it develops methods that can predict future solar radiation patterns to help reduce the costs of solar power generation. This study built supervised machine learning models, known as a deep neural network (DNN) and a long–short-term memory neural network (LSTM). A hybrid supervised and unsupervised model, namely a cluster-based artificial neural network (k-means clustering- and fuzzy C-means clustering-based models) was developed. After establishing these models, the study evaluated their prediction results. For different prediction periods, the study selected the best-performing model based on the results and proposed combining them to establish a real-time-updated solar radiation forecast system capable of predicting the next 12 h. The study area covered Kaohsiung, Hualien, and Penghu in Taiwan. Data from ground stations of the Central Weather Administration, collected between 1993 and 2021, as well as the solar angle parameters of each station, were used as input data for the model. The results of this study show that different models offer advantages and disadvantages in predicting different future times. The hybrid prediction system can predict future solar radiation more accurately than a single model.

Suggested Citation

  • Chih-Chiang Wei & Yen-Chen Yang, 2023. "A Global Solar Radiation Forecasting System Using Combined Supervised and Unsupervised Learning Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-18, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:23:p:7693-:d:1284682
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anton Vernet & Alexandre Fabregat, 2023. "Evaluation of Empirical Daily Solar Radiation Models for the Northeast Coast of the Iberian Peninsula," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Xinyu Yang & Ying Ji & Xiaoxia Wang & Menghan Niu & Shuijing Long & Jingchao Xie & Yuying Sun, 2023. "Simplified Method for Predicting Hourly Global Solar Radiation Using Extraterrestrial Radiation and Limited Weather Forecast Parameters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-16, April.
    3. Chih-Chiang Wei, 2017. "Predictions of Surface Solar Radiation on Tilted Solar Panels using Machine Learning Models: A Case Study of Tainan City, Taiwan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-26, October.
    4. Mohamed A. Ali & Ashraf Elsayed & Islam Elkabani & Mohammad Akrami & M. Elsayed Youssef & Gasser E. Hassan, 2023. "Optimizing Artificial Neural Networks for the Accurate Prediction of Global Solar Radiation: A Performance Comparison with Conventional Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-30, August.
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