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Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting Using a Volterra-Least Squares Support Vector Machine Model Combined with Signal Decomposition

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  • Zhenyu Wang

    (Key Laboratory of Advanced Process Control for Light Industry (Ministry of Education), Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China)

  • Cuixia Tian

    (Key Laboratory of Advanced Process Control for Light Industry (Ministry of Education), Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China)

  • Qibing Zhu

    (Key Laboratory of Advanced Process Control for Light Industry (Ministry of Education), Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China)

  • Min Huang

    (Key Laboratory of Advanced Process Control for Light Industry (Ministry of Education), Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China)

Abstract

Accurate solar forecasting facilitates the integration of solar generation into the grid by reducing the integration and operational costs associated with solar intermittencies. A novel solar radiation forecasting method was proposed in this paper, which uses two kinds of adaptive single decomposition algorithm, namely, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and local mean decomposition (LMD), to decompose the strong non-stationary solar radiation sequence into a set of simpler components. The least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and the Volterra model were employed to build forecasting sub-models for high-frequency components and low-frequency components, respectively, and the sub-forecasting results of each component were superimposed to obtain the final forecast results. The historical solar radiation data collected on Golden (CO, USA), in 2014 were used to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed model and its comparison with that of the ARIMA, the persistent model. The comparison demonstrated that the superior performance of the proposed hybrid method.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhenyu Wang & Cuixia Tian & Qibing Zhu & Min Huang, 2018. "Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting Using a Volterra-Least Squares Support Vector Machine Model Combined with Signal Decomposition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-21, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:1:p:68-:d:124987
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Singh Doorga, Jay Rovisham & Dhurmea, Kumar Ram & Rughooputh, Soonil & Boojhawon, Ravindra, 2019. "Forecasting mesoscale distribution of surface solar irradiation using a proposed hybrid approach combining satellite remote sensing and time series models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 69-85.
    2. Chen, Xiang & Ding, Kun & Zhang, Jingwei & Han, Wei & Liu, Yongjie & Yang, Zenan & Weng, Shuai, 2022. "Online prediction of ultra-short-term photovoltaic power using chaotic characteristic analysis, improved PSO and KELM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    3. Prasad, Ramendra & Ali, Mumtaz & Kwan, Paul & Khan, Huma, 2019. "Designing a multi-stage multivariate empirical mode decomposition coupled with ant colony optimization and random forest model to forecast monthly solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 778-792.
    4. Zina Boussaada & Octavian Curea & Ahmed Remaci & Haritza Camblong & Najiba Mrabet Bellaaj, 2018. "A Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Neural Network Model for the Prediction of the Daily Direct Solar Radiation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Ngoc-Lan Huynh, Anh & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Ali, Mumtaz & Abdulla, Shahab & Raj, Nawin, 2021. "Novel short-term solar radiation hybrid model: Long short-term memory network integrated with robust local mean decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    6. Luo Wang & Yonggang Li & Junqing Li, 2018. "Diagnosis of Inter-Turn Short Circuit of Synchronous Generator Rotor Winding Based on Volterra Kernel Identification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-15, September.
    7. Ahmed Aljanad & Nadia M. L. Tan & Vassilios G. Agelidis & Hussain Shareef, 2021. "Neural Network Approach for Global Solar Irradiance Prediction at Extremely Short-Time-Intervals Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, February.
    8. Tingting Zhu & Yiren Guo & Cong Wang & Chao Ni, 2020. "Inter-Hour Forecast of Solar Radiation Based on the Structural Equation Model and Ensemble Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-15, September.

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