IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i18p13782-d1240958.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integration of the Machine Learning Algorithms and I-MR Statistical Process Control for Solar Energy

Author

Listed:
  • Yasemin Ayaz Atalan

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering, Yozgat Bozok University, Yozgat 66200, Turkey)

  • Abdulkadir Atalan

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale 17100, Turkey)

Abstract

The importance of solar power generation facilities, as one of the renewable energy types, is increasing daily. This study proposes a two-way validation approach to verify the validity of the forecast data by integrating solar energy production quantity with machine learning (ML) and I-MR statistical process control (SPC) charts. The estimation data for the amount of solar energy production were obtained by using random forest (RF), linear regression (LR), gradient boosting (GB), and adaptive boost or AdaBoost (AB) algorithms from ML models. Data belonging to eight independent variables consisting of environmental and geographical factors were used. This study consists of approximately two years of data on the amount of solar energy production for 636 days. The study consisted of three stages: First, descriptive statistics and analysis of variance tests of the dependent and independent variables were performed. In the second stage of the method, estimation data for the amount of solar energy production, representing the dependent variable, were obtained from AB, RF, GB, and LR algorithms and ML models. The AB algorithm performed best among the ML models, with the lowest RMSE, MSE, and MAE values and the highest R 2 value for the forecast data. For the estimation phase of the AB algorithm, the RMSE, MSE, MAE, and R 2 values were calculated as 0.328, 0.107, 0.134, and 0.909, respectively. The RF algorithm performed worst with performance scores for the prediction data. The RMSE, MSE, MAE, and R 2 values of the RF algorithm were calculated as 0.685, 0.469, 0.503, and 0.623, respectively. In the last stage, the estimation data were tested with I-MR control charts, one of the statistical control tools. At the end of all phases, this study aimed to validate the results obtained by integrating the two techniques. Therefore, this study offers a critical perspective to demonstrate a two-way verification approach to whether a system’s forecast data are under control for the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasemin Ayaz Atalan & Abdulkadir Atalan, 2023. "Integration of the Machine Learning Algorithms and I-MR Statistical Process Control for Solar Energy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-20, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:18:p:13782-:d:1240958
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/18/13782/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/18/13782/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chih-Chiang Wei, 2017. "Predictions of Surface Solar Radiation on Tilted Solar Panels using Machine Learning Models: A Case Study of Tainan City, Taiwan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-26, October.
    2. Novak, Sonja & Djordjevic, Nebojša, 2019. "Information system for evaluation of healthcare expenditure and health monitoring," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 520(C), pages 72-80.
    3. Abdulkadir Atalan, 2023. "Forecasting drinking milk price based on economic, social, and environmental factors using machine learning algorithms," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 214-241, January.
    4. Mellit, A. & Pavan, A. Massi & Lughi, V., 2021. "Deep learning neural networks for short-term photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 276-288.
    5. Gi Yong Kim & Doo Sol Han & Zoonky Lee, 2020. "Solar Panel Tilt Angle Optimization Using Machine Learning Model: A Case Study of Daegu City, South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-13, January.
    6. Khan, Waqas & Walker, Shalika & Zeiler, Wim, 2022. "Improved solar photovoltaic energy generation forecast using deep learning-based ensemble stacking approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    7. Cem Çağrı Dönmez & Abdulkadir Atalan, 2019. "Developing Statistical Optimization Models for Urban Competitiveness Index: Under the Boundaries of Econophysics Approach," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-11, November.
    8. Bhavsar, S. & Pitchumani, R., 2021. "A novel machine learning based identification of potential adopter of rooftop solar photovoltaics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    9. Jebli, Imane & Belouadha, Fatima-Zahra & Kabbaj, Mohammed Issam & Tilioua, Amine, 2021. "Prediction of solar energy guided by pearson correlation using machine learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zheng, Lingwei & Su, Ran & Sun, Xinyu & Guo, Siqi, 2023. "Historical PV-output characteristic extraction based weather-type classification strategy and its forecasting method for the day-ahead prediction of PV output," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    2. Gupta, Priya & Singh, Rhythm, 2023. "Combining simple and less time complex ML models with multivariate empirical mode decomposition to obtain accurate GHI forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    3. Ronewa Collen Nemalili & Lordwell Jhamba & Joseph Kiprono Kirui & Caston Sigauke, 2023. "Nowcasting Hourly-Averaged Tilt Angles of Acceptance for Solar Collector Applications Using Machine Learning Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Wang, Lining & Mao, Mingxuan & Xie, Jili & Liao, Zheng & Zhang, Hao & Li, Huanxin, 2023. "Accurate solar PV power prediction interval method based on frequency-domain decomposition and LSTM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    5. Andi A. H. Lateko & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2022. "Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using a Regression-Based Ensemble Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-21, June.
    6. Bo Gu & Xi Li & Fengliang Xu & Xiaopeng Yang & Fayi Wang & Pengzhan Wang, 2023. "Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis of Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Based on WT-CNN-BiLSTM-AM-GMM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-27, April.
    7. Putri Nor Liyana Mohamad Radzi & Muhammad Naveed Akhter & Saad Mekhilef & Noraisyah Mohamed Shah, 2023. "Review on the Application of Photovoltaic Forecasting Using Machine Learning for Very Short- to Long-Term Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, February.
    8. Sarmas, Elissaios & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Stamatopoulos, Efstathios & Marinakis, Vangelis & Doukas, Haris, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using meta-learning and numerical weather prediction independent Long Short-Term Memory models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    9. Yin, Linfei & Cao, Xinghui & Liu, Dongduan, 2023. "Weighted fully-connected regression networks for one-day-ahead hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    10. Yunus Emre Ayözen, 2023. "Statistical Optimization of E-Scooter Micro-Mobility Utilization in Postal Service," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-25, January.
    11. Meghisan-Toma Georgeta-Madalina & Toma Dorin, 2019. "Health Determinants and Unmet Needs for Health Care- towards e-Health Systems," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 1045-1057, May.
    12. Khan, Waqas & Somers, Ward & Walker, Shalika & de Bont, Kevin & Van der Velden, Joep & Zeiler, Wim, 2023. "Comparison of electric vehicle load forecasting across different spatial levels with incorporated uncertainty estimation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    13. Qingliang Zhao & Junji Chen & Xiaobin Feng & Yiduo Wang, 2024. "A Novel Bézier LSTM Model: A Case Study in Corn Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-21, July.
    14. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A Green Energy Application in Energy Management Systems by an Artificial Intelligence-Based Solar Radiation Forecasting Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, April.
    15. Zoltan Varga & Ervin Racz, 2022. "Machine Learning Analysis on the Performance of Dye-Sensitized Solar Cell—Thermoelectric Generator Hybrid System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-18, October.
    16. Sibtain, Muhammad & Li, Xianshan & Saleem, Snoober & Ain, Qurat-ul- & Shi, Qiang & Li, Fei & Saeed, Muhammad & Majeed, Fatima & Shah, Syed Shoaib Ahmed & Saeed, Muhammad Hammad, 2022. "Multifaceted irradiance prediction by exploiting hybrid decomposition-entropy-Spatiotemporal attention based Sequence2Sequence models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 648-682.
    17. D'Adamo, Idiano & Mammetti, Marco & Ottaviani, Dario & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2023. "Photovoltaic systems and sustainable communities: New social models for ecological transition. The impact of incentive policies in profitability analyses," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 1291-1304.
    18. Chih-Chiang Wei & Yen-Chen Yang, 2023. "A Global Solar Radiation Forecasting System Using Combined Supervised and Unsupervised Learning Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-18, November.
    19. Negri, Simone & Giani, Federico & Blasuttigh, Nicola & Massi Pavan, Alessandro & Mellit, Adel & Tironi, Enrico, 2022. "Combined model predictive control and ANN-based forecasters for jointly acting renewable self-consumers: An environmental and economical evaluation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 440-454.
    20. Raeesi, Ramin & Sahebjamnia, Navid & Mansouri, S. Afshin, 2023. "The synergistic effect of operational research and big data analytics in greening container terminal operations: A review and future directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 943-973.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:18:p:13782-:d:1240958. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.