IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i1p148-d194446.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling Hourly Global Horizontal Irradiance from Satellite-Derived Datasets and Climate Variables as New Inputs with Artificial Neural Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Bikhtiyar Ameen

    (Centre for Landscape and Climate Research, School of Geography, Geology and Environment, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK
    Department of Geography, College of Humanities, University of Sulaimani, Kirkuk Road, Sulaimani 46001, Iraq-Kurdistan Region, Iraq)

  • Heiko Balzter

    (Centre for Landscape and Climate Research, School of Geography, Geology and Environment, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK
    National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO), University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK)

  • Claire Jarvis

    (Centre for Landscape and Climate Research, School of Geography, Geology and Environment, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK)

  • James Wheeler

    (Centre for Landscape and Climate Research, School of Geography, Geology and Environment, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK)

Abstract

More accurate data of hourly Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) are required in the field of solar energy in areas with limited ground measurements. The aim of the research was to obtain more precise and accurate hourly GHI by using new input from Satellite-Derived Datasets (SDDs) with new input combinations of clear sky (Cs) and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) irradiance on the horizontal surface and with observed climate variables, namely Sunshine Duration (SD), Air Temperature (AT), Relative Humidity (RH) and Wind Speed (WS). The variables were placed in ten different sets as models in an artificial neural network with the Levenberg–Marquardt training algorithm to obtain results from training, validation and test data. It was applied at two station types in northeast Iraq. The test data results with observed input variables (correlation coefficient ( r ) = 0.755, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 33.7% and bias = 0.3%) are improved with new input combinations for all variables ( r = 0.983, RMSE = 9.5% and bias = 0.0%) at four automatic stations. Similarly, they improved at five tower stations with no recorded SD (from: r = 0.601, RMSE = 41% and bias = 0.7% to: r = 0.976, RMSE = 11.2% and bias = 0.0%). The estimation of hourly GHI is slightly enhanced by using the new inputs.

Suggested Citation

  • Bikhtiyar Ameen & Heiko Balzter & Claire Jarvis & James Wheeler, 2019. "Modelling Hourly Global Horizontal Irradiance from Satellite-Derived Datasets and Climate Variables as New Inputs with Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-28, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:1:p:148-:d:194446
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/1/148/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/1/148/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dahmani, Kahina & Notton, Gilles & Voyant, Cyril & Dizene, Rabah & Nivet, Marie Laure & Paoli, Christophe & Tamas, Wani, 2016. "Multilayer Perceptron approach for estimating 5-min and hourly horizontal global irradiation from exogenous meteorological data in locations without solar measurements," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 267-282.
    2. Lima, Francisco J.L. & Martins, Fernando R. & Pereira, Enio B. & Lorenz, Elke & Heinemann, Detlev, 2016. "Forecast for surface solar irradiance at the Brazilian Northeastern region using NWP model and artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P1), pages 807-818.
    3. Ramedani, Zeynab & Omid, Mahmoud & Keyhani, Alireza & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Khoshnevisan, Benyamin, 2014. "Potential of radial basis function based support vector regression for global solar radiation prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1005-1011.
    4. Al-Alawi, S.M. & Al-Hinai, H.A., 1998. "An ANN-based approach for predicting global radiation in locations with no direct measurement instrumentation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 199-204.
    5. Rao K, D.V. Siva Krishna & Premalatha, M. & Naveen, C., 2018. "Analysis of different combinations of meteorological parameters in predicting the horizontal global solar radiation with ANN approach: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 248-258.
    6. Kisi, Ozgur, 2014. "Modeling solar radiation of Mediterranean region in Turkey by using fuzzy genetic approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 429-436.
    7. Linares-Rodriguez, Alvaro & Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio & Pozo-Vazquez, David & Tovar-Pescador, Joaquin, 2013. "An artificial neural network ensemble model for estimating global solar radiation from Meteosat satellite images," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 636-645.
    8. López, G. & Batlles, F.J. & Tovar-Pescador, J., 2005. "Selection of input parameters to model direct solar irradiance by using artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 1675-1684.
    9. Mohanty, Sthitapragyan & Patra, Prashanta Kumar & Sahoo, Sudhansu Sekhar, 2016. "Prediction and application of solar radiation with soft computing over traditional and conventional approach – A comprehensive review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 778-796.
    10. Besharat, Fariba & Dehghan, Ali A. & Faghih, Ahmad R., 2013. "Empirical models for estimating global solar radiation: A review and case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 798-821.
    11. Alam, Shah & Kaushik, S.C. & Garg, S.N., 2009. "Assessment of diffuse solar energy under general sky condition using artificial neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 554-564, April.
    12. Diane Palmer & Ian Cole & Tom Betts & Ralph Gottschalg, 2017. "Interpolating and Estimating Horizontal Diffuse Solar Irradiation to Provide UK-Wide Coverage: Selection of the Best Performing Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, February.
    13. Hyun-Jin Lee & Shin-Young Kim & Chang-Yeol Yun, 2017. "Comparison of Solar Radiation Models to Estimate Direct Normal Irradiance for Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-12, April.
    14. Senkal, Ozan & Kuleli, Tuncay, 2009. "Estimation of solar radiation over Turkey using artificial neural network and satellite data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(7-8), pages 1222-1228, July.
    15. Kaba, Kazım & Sarıgül, Mehmet & Avcı, Mutlu & Kandırmaz, H. Mustafa, 2018. "Estimation of daily global solar radiation using deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 126-135.
    16. Muzhou Hou & Tianle Zhang & Futian Weng & Mumtaz Ali & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2018. "Global Solar Radiation Prediction Using Hybrid Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-19, December.
    17. Aguiar, L. Mazorra & Pereira, B. & Lauret, P. & Díaz, F. & David, M., 2016. "Combining solar irradiance measurements, satellite-derived data and a numerical weather prediction model to improve intra-day solar forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 599-610.
    18. Urraca, R. & Martinez-de-Pison, E. & Sanz-Garcia, A. & Antonanzas, J. & Antonanzas-Torres, F., 2017. "Estimation methods for global solar radiation: Case study evaluation of five different approaches in central Spain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1098-1113.
    19. Qin, Jun & Chen, Zhuoqi & Yang, Kun & Liang, Shunlin & Tang, Wenjun, 2011. "Estimation of monthly-mean daily global solar radiation based on MODIS and TRMM products," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(7), pages 2480-2489, July.
    20. Cristian Crisosto & Martin Hofmann & Riyad Mubarak & Gunther Seckmeyer, 2018. "One-Hour Prediction of the Global Solar Irradiance from All-Sky Images Using Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, October.
    21. Aydin Jadidi & Raimundo Menezes & Nilmar De Souza & Antonio Cezar De Castro Lima, 2018. "A Hybrid GA–MLPNN Model for One-Hour-Ahead Forecasting of the Global Horizontal Irradiance in Elizabeth City, North Carolina," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, October.
    22. Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun & Yang, Kun & Sun, Jiulin, 2011. "A simple and efficient algorithm to estimate daily global solar radiation from geostationary satellite data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3179-3188.
    23. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Khalil, A. & Kaseb, S. & Kassem, M.A., 2017. "Exploring the potential of tree-based ensemble methods in solar radiation modeling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 897-916.
    24. Hassan, Gasser E. & Youssef, M. Elsayed & Mohamed, Zahraa E. & Ali, Mohamed A. & Hanafy, Ahmed A., 2016. "New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 437-450.
    25. Janjai, S. & Pankaew, P. & Laksanaboonsong, J., 2009. "A model for calculating hourly global solar radiation from satellite data in the tropics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(9), pages 1450-1457, September.
    26. Ampratwum, David B. & Dorvlo, Atsu S. S., 1999. "Estimation of solar radiation from the number of sunshine hours," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 161-167, July.
    27. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Khalil, A. & Kaseb, S. & Kassem, M.A., 2017. "Potential of four different machine-learning algorithms in modeling daily global solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 52-62.
    28. Chih-Chiang Wei, 2017. "Predictions of Surface Solar Radiation on Tilted Solar Panels using Machine Learning Models: A Case Study of Tainan City, Taiwan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-26, October.
    29. Jiang, Yingni, 2009. "Computation of monthly mean daily global solar radiation in China using artificial neural networks and comparison with other empirical models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1276-1283.
    30. Voyant, Cyril & Muselli, Marc & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2011. "Optimization of an artificial neural network dedicated to the multivariate forecasting of daily global radiation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 348-359.
    31. Soares, Jacyra & Oliveira, Amauri P. & Boznar, Marija Zlata & Mlakar, Primoz & Escobedo, João F. & Machado, Antonio J., 2004. "Modeling hourly diffuse solar-radiation in the city of São Paulo using a neural-network technique," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 201-214, October.
    32. Zina Boussaada & Octavian Curea & Ahmed Remaci & Haritza Camblong & Najiba Mrabet Bellaaj, 2018. "A Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Neural Network Model for the Prediction of the Daily Direct Solar Radiation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-21, March.
    33. Jiaojiao Feng & Weizhen Wang & Jing Li, 2018. "An LM-BP Neural Network Approach to Estimate Monthly-Mean Daily Global Solar Radiation Using MODIS Atmospheric Products," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-14, December.
    34. Fadare, D.A., 2009. "Modelling of solar energy potential in Nigeria using an artificial neural network model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(9), pages 1410-1422, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pirhooshyaran, Mohammad & Scheinberg, Katya & Snyder, Lawrence V., 2020. "Feature engineering and forecasting via derivative-free optimization and ensemble of sequence-to-sequence networks with applications in renewable energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. YoungHyun Koo & Myeongchan Oh & Sung-Min Kim & Hyeong-Dong Park, 2020. "Estimation and Mapping of Solar Irradiance for Korea by Using COMS MI Satellite Images and an Artificial Neural Network Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Tan, Yunhui & Wang, Quan & Zhang, Zhaoyang, 2023. "Near-real-time estimation of global horizontal irradiance from Himawari-8 satellite data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Lunche & Kisi, Ozgur & Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad & Salazar, Germán Ariel & Zhu, Zhongmin & Gong, Wei, 2016. "Solar radiation prediction using different techniques: model evaluation and comparison," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 384-397.
    2. Zhang, Jianyuan & Zhao, Li & Deng, Shuai & Xu, Weicong & Zhang, Ying, 2017. "A critical review of the models used to estimate solar radiation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 314-329.
    3. Dahmani, Kahina & Notton, Gilles & Voyant, Cyril & Dizene, Rabah & Nivet, Marie Laure & Paoli, Christophe & Tamas, Wani, 2016. "Multilayer Perceptron approach for estimating 5-min and hourly horizontal global irradiation from exogenous meteorological data in locations without solar measurements," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 267-282.
    4. Rohani, Abbas & Taki, Morteza & Abdollahpour, Masoumeh, 2018. "A novel soft computing model (Gaussian process regression with K-fold cross validation) for daily and monthly solar radiation forecasting (Part: I)," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 411-422.
    5. Shubham Gupta & Amit Kumar Singh & Sachin Mishra & Pradeep Vishnuram & Nagaraju Dharavat & Narayanamoorthi Rajamanickam & Ch. Naga Sai Kalyan & Kareem M. AboRas & Naveen Kumar Sharma & Mohit Bajaj, 2023. "Estimation of Solar Radiation with Consideration of Terrestrial Losses at a Selected Location—A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-29, June.
    6. Yadav, Amit Kumar & Malik, Hasmat & Chandel, S.S., 2014. "Selection of most relevant input parameters using WEKA for artificial neural network based solar radiation prediction models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 509-519.
    7. Mostafavi, Elham Sadat & Ramiyani, Sara Saeidi & Sarvar, Rahim & Moud, Hashem Izadi & Mousavi, Seyyed Mohammad, 2013. "A hybrid computational approach to estimate solar global radiation: An empirical evidence from Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 204-210.
    8. Chen, Ji-Long & He, Lei & Yang, Hong & Ma, Maohua & Chen, Qiao & Wu, Sheng-Jun & Xiao, Zuo-lin, 2019. "Empirical models for estimating monthly global solar radiation: A most comprehensive review and comparative case study in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 91-111.
    9. Kılıç, Fatih & Yılmaz, İbrahim Halil & Kaya, Özge, 2021. "Adaptive co-optimization of artificial neural networks using evolutionary algorithm for global radiation forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 176-190.
    10. Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun & Tang, Wenjun & Yao, Ling, 2019. "A deep learning algorithm to estimate hourly global solar radiation from geostationary satellite data," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Zarzo, Manuel & Martí, Pau, 2011. "Modeling the variability of solar radiation data among weather stations by means of principal components analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(8), pages 2775-2784, August.
    12. Heo, Jae & Jung, Jaehoon & Kim, Byungil & Han, SangUk, 2020. "Digital elevation model-based convolutional neural network modeling for searching of high solar energy regions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    13. Rodrigues, Eugénio & Gomes, Álvaro & Gaspar, Adélio Rodrigues & Henggeler Antunes, Carlos, 2018. "Estimation of renewable energy and built environment-related variables using neural networks – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 959-988.
    14. Mohamed A. Ali & Ashraf Elsayed & Islam Elkabani & Mohammad Akrami & M. Elsayed Youssef & Gasser E. Hassan, 2023. "Optimizing Artificial Neural Networks for the Accurate Prediction of Global Solar Radiation: A Performance Comparison with Conventional Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-30, August.
    15. Jiandong Liu & Tao Pan & Deliang Chen & Xiuji Zhou & Qiang Yu & Gerald N. Flerchinger & De Li Liu & Xintong Zou & Hans W. Linderholm & Jun Du & Dingrong Wu & Yanbo Shen, 2017. "An Improved Ångström-Type Model for Estimating Solar Radiation over the Tibetan Plateau," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-28, July.
    16. Linares-Rodríguez, Alvaro & Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio & Pozo-Vázquez, David & Tovar-Pescador, Joaquín, 2011. "Generation of synthetic daily global solar radiation data based on ERA-Interim reanalysis and artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5356-5365.
    17. Teke, Ahmet & Yıldırım, H. Başak & Çelik, Özgür, 2015. "Evaluation and performance comparison of different models for the estimation of solar radiation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1097-1107.
    18. Escrig, H. & Batlles, F.J. & Alonso, J. & Baena, F.M. & Bosch, J.L. & Salbidegoitia, I.B. & Burgaleta, J.I., 2013. "Cloud detection, classification and motion estimation using geostationary satellite imagery for cloud cover forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 853-859.
    19. Deo, Ravinesh C. & Wen, Xiaohu & Qi, Feng, 2016. "A wavelet-coupled support vector machine model for forecasting global incident solar radiation using limited meteorological dataset," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 568-593.
    20. Purohit, Ishan & Purohit, Pallav, 2015. "Inter-comparability of solar radiation databases in Indian context," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 735-747.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:1:p:148-:d:194446. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.