IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i11p4436-d1160335.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Distributed Generation Forecasting Based on Rolling Graph Neural Network (ROLL-GNN)

Author

Listed:
  • Jizhong Xue

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China)

  • Zaohui Kang

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China)

  • Chun Sing Lai

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
    Brunel Interdisciplinary Power Systems Research Centre, Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Brunel University London, London UB8 3PH, UK)

  • Yu Wang

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China)

  • Fangyuan Xu

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China)

  • Haoliang Yuan

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China)

Abstract

The future power grid will have more distributed energy sources, and the widespread access of distributed energy sources has the potential to improve the energy efficiency, resilience, and sustainability of the system. However, distributed energy, mainly wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation, has the characteristics of intermittency and strong randomness, which will bring challenges to the safe operation of the power grid. Accurate prediction of solar power generation with high spatial and temporal resolution is very important for the normal operation of the power grid. In order to improve the accuracy of distributed photovoltaic power generation prediction, this paper proposes a new distributed photovoltaic power generation prediction model: ROLL-GNN, which is defined as a prediction model based on rolling prediction of the graph neural network. The ROLL-GNN uses the perspective of graph signal processing to model distributed generation production timeseries data as signals on graphs. In the model, the similarity of data is used to capture their spatio-temporal dependencies to achieve improved prediction accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jizhong Xue & Zaohui Kang & Chun Sing Lai & Yu Wang & Fangyuan Xu & Haoliang Yuan, 2023. "Distributed Generation Forecasting Based on Rolling Graph Neural Network (ROLL-GNN)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-18, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:11:p:4436-:d:1160335
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/11/4436/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/11/4436/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhaoxuan Li & SM Mahbobur Rahman & Rolando Vega & Bing Dong, 2016. "A Hierarchical Approach Using Machine Learning Methods in Solar Photovoltaic Energy Production Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, January.
    2. Huang, Jing & Perry, Matthew, 2016. "A semi-empirical approach using gradient boosting and k-nearest neighbors regression for GEFCom2014 probabilistic solar power forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1081-1086.
    3. Stéphanie Monjoly & Maina André & Rudy Calif & Ted Soubdhan, 2019. "Forecast Horizon and Solar Variability Influences on the Performances of Multiscale Hybrid Forecast Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-20, June.
    4. Kong, Weicong & Jia, Youwei & Dong, Zhao Yang & Meng, Ke & Chai, Songjian, 2020. "Hybrid approaches based on deep whole-sky-image learning to photovoltaic generation forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    5. Wang, Lining & Mao, Mingxuan & Xie, Jili & Liao, Zheng & Zhang, Hao & Li, Huanxin, 2023. "Accurate solar PV power prediction interval method based on frequency-domain decomposition and LSTM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    6. Lappalainen, Kari & Valkealahti, Seppo, 2017. "Output power variation of different PV array configurations during irradiance transitions caused by moving clouds," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 902-910.
    7. Qiaomu Zhu & Jinfu Chen & Lin Zhu & Xianzhong Duan & Yilu Liu, 2018. "Wind Speed Prediction with Spatio–Temporal Correlation: A Deep Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Mahmoud Dhimish & Pavlos I. Lazaridis, 2022. "Approximating Shading Ratio Using the Total-Sky Imaging System: An Application for Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-16, November.
    3. Terrén-Serrano, Guillermo & Martínez-Ramón, Manel, 2021. "Comparative analysis of methods for cloud segmentation in ground-based infrared images," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1025-1040.
    4. Chen, Xiaoyang & Du, Yang & Lim, Enggee & Fang, Lurui & Yan, Ke, 2022. "Towards the applicability of solar nowcasting: A practice on predictive PV power ramp-rate control," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 147-166.
    5. Terrén-Serrano, Guillermo & Martínez-Ramón, Manel, 2021. "Multi-layer wind velocity field visualization in infrared images of clouds for solar irradiance forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    6. Joseph Ndong & Ted Soubdhan, 2022. "Extracting Statistical Properties of Solar and Photovoltaic Power Production for the Scope of Building a Sophisticated Forecasting Framework," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Mariz B. Arias & Sungwoo Bae, 2020. "Design Models for Power Flow Management of a Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic System with Energy Storage System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-14, April.
    8. Xiao, Zenan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Liu, Jun & Li, Chengli & Tai, Yonghang, 2023. "A novel method based on time series ensemble model for hourly photovoltaic power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    9. Zhang, Shuai & Chen, Yong & Xiao, Jiuhong & Zhang, Wenyu & Feng, Ruijun, 2021. "Hybrid wind speed forecasting model based on multivariate data secondary decomposition approach and deep learning algorithm with attention mechanism," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 688-704.
    10. Xu, Yuanyuan & Yang, Genke & Luo, Jiliang & He, Jianan & Sun, Haixin, 2022. "A multi-location short-term wind speed prediction model based on spatiotemporal joint learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 148-159.
    11. Paletta, Quentin & Arbod, Guillaume & Lasenby, Joan, 2023. "Omnivision forecasting: Combining satellite and sky images for improved deterministic and probabilistic intra-hour solar energy predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    12. Ajith, Meenu & Martínez-Ramón, Manel, 2021. "Deep learning based solar radiation micro forecast by fusion of infrared cloud images and radiation data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    13. Ziyu Bai & Guoqiang Sun & Haixiang Zang & Ming Zhang & Peifeng Shen & Yi Liu & Zhinong Wei, 2019. "Identification Technology of Grid Monitoring Alarm Event Based on Natural Language Processing and Deep Learning in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-19, August.
    14. Stavros-Andreas Logothetis & Vasileios Salamalikis & Bijan Nouri & Jan Remund & Luis F. Zarzalejo & Yu Xie & Stefan Wilbert & Evangelos Ntavelis & Julien Nou & Niels Hendrikx & Lennard Visser & Manaji, 2022. "Solar Irradiance Ramp Forecasting Based on All-Sky Imagers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-17, August.
    15. Wang, Wenting & Guo, Yufeng & Yang, Dazhi & Zhang, Zili & Kleissl, Jan & van der Meer, Dennis & Yang, Guoming & Hong, Tao & Liu, Bai & Huang, Nantian & Mayer, Martin János, 2024. "Economics of physics-based solar forecasting in power system day-ahead scheduling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    16. Alessandro Niccolai & Seyedamir Orooji & Andrea Matteri & Emanuele Ogliari & Sonia Leva, 2022. "Irradiance Nowcasting by Means of Deep-Learning Analysis of Infrared Images," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-11, March.
    17. Jesús Ferrero Bermejo & Juan Francisco Gómez Fernández & Rafael Pino & Adolfo Crespo Márquez & Antonio Jesús Guillén López, 2019. "Review and Comparison of Intelligent Optimization Modelling Techniques for Energy Forecasting and Condition-Based Maintenance in PV Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-18, October.
    18. Maolin Cheng & Jiano Li & Yun Liu & Bin Liu, 2020. "Forecasting Clean Energy Consumption in China by 2025: Using Improved Grey Model GM (1, N)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, January.
    19. Hu, Yusha & Man, Yi, 2023. "Energy consumption and carbon emissions forecasting for industrial processes: Status, challenges and perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    20. Giovanni Brusco & Alessandro Burgio & Daniele Menniti & Anna Pinnarelli & Nicola Sorrentino & Pasquale Vizza, 2017. "Quantification of Forecast Error Costs of Photovoltaic Prosumers in Italy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:11:p:4436-:d:1160335. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.