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A Hierarchical Approach Using Machine Learning Methods in Solar Photovoltaic Energy Production Forecasting

Author

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  • Zhaoxuan Li

    (Mechanical Engineering, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • SM Mahbobur Rahman

    (Mechanical Engineering, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Rolando Vega

    (Texas Sustainable Energy Research Institute, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA)

  • Bing Dong

    (Mechanical Engineering, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA)

Abstract

We evaluate and compare two common methods, artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR), for predicting energy productions from a solar photovoltaic (PV) system in Florida 15 min, 1 h and 24 h ahead of time. A hierarchical approach is proposed based on the machine learning algorithms tested. The production data used in this work corresponds to 15 min averaged power measurements collected from 2014. The accuracy of the model is determined using computing error statistics such as mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), relative MBE (rMBE), mean percentage error (MPE) and relative RMSE (rRMSE). This work provides findings on how forecasts from individual inverters will improve the total solar power generation forecast of the PV system.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhaoxuan Li & SM Mahbobur Rahman & Rolando Vega & Bing Dong, 2016. "A Hierarchical Approach Using Machine Learning Methods in Solar Photovoltaic Energy Production Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:1:p:55-:d:62434
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Xiao, Zenan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Liu, Jun & Li, Chengli & Tai, Yonghang, 2023. "A novel method based on time series ensemble model for hourly photovoltaic power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    3. Jesús Ferrero Bermejo & Juan Francisco Gómez Fernández & Rafael Pino & Adolfo Crespo Márquez & Antonio Jesús Guillén López, 2019. "Review and Comparison of Intelligent Optimization Modelling Techniques for Energy Forecasting and Condition-Based Maintenance in PV Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-18, October.
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    5. Javier Huertas Tato & Miguel Centeno Brito, 2018. "Using Smart Persistence and Random Forests to Predict Photovoltaic Energy Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Yukta Mehta & Rui Xu & Benjamin Lim & Jane Wu & Jerry Gao, 2023. "A Review for Green Energy Machine Learning and AI Services," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-30, July.
    7. Maolin Cheng & Jiano Li & Yun Liu & Bin Liu, 2020. "Forecasting Clean Energy Consumption in China by 2025: Using Improved Grey Model GM (1, N)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, January.
    8. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. Yujing Sun & Fei Wang & Bo Wang & Qifang Chen & N.A. Engerer & Zengqiang Mi, 2016. "Correlation Feature Selection and Mutual Information Theory Based Quantitative Research on Meteorological Impact Factors of Module Temperature for Solar Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-20, December.
    10. Adolfo Crespo Márquez & Antonio de la Fuente Carmona & Sara Antomarioni, 2019. "A Process to Implement an Artificial Neural Network and Association Rules Techniques to Improve Asset Performance and Energy Efficiency," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-25, September.
    11. Azhar Ahmed Mohammed & Zeyar Aung, 2016. "Ensemble Learning Approach for Probabilistic Forecasting of Solar Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-17, December.
    12. Md Tahmid Hussain & Adil Sarwar & Mohd Tariq & Shabana Urooj & Amal BaQais & Md. Alamgir Hossain, 2023. "An Evaluation of ANN Algorithm Performance for MPPT Energy Harvesting in Solar PV Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-36, July.
    13. Mariz B. Arias & Sungwoo Bae, 2020. "Design Models for Power Flow Management of a Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic System with Energy Storage System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-14, April.
    14. Li Wang & Jiguang Yue & Yongqing Su & Feng Lu & Qiang Sun, 2017. "A Novel Remaining Useful Life Prediction Approach for Superbuck Converter Circuits Based on Modified Grey Wolf Optimizer-Support Vector Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-22, April.
    15. Jizhong Xue & Zaohui Kang & Chun Sing Lai & Yu Wang & Fangyuan Xu & Haoliang Yuan, 2023. "Distributed Generation Forecasting Based on Rolling Graph Neural Network (ROLL-GNN)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-18, May.
    16. du Plessis, A.A. & Strauss, J.M. & Rix, A.J., 2021. "Short-term solar power forecasting: Investigating the ability of deep learning models to capture low-level utility-scale Photovoltaic system behaviour," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    17. Chih-Chiang Wei, 2019. "Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Using Deep Learning in Solar Panels Installed in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    18. Chih-Chiang Wei, 2017. "Predictions of Surface Solar Radiation on Tilted Solar Panels using Machine Learning Models: A Case Study of Tainan City, Taiwan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-26, October.
    19. Stefano Massucco & Gabriele Mosaico & Matteo Saviozzi & Federico Silvestro, 2019. "A Hybrid Technique for Day-Ahead PV Generation Forecasting Using Clear-Sky Models or Ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks According to a Decision Tree Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, April.
    20. Jha, Sunil Kr. & Bilalovic, Jasmin & Jha, Anju & Patel, Nilesh & Zhang, Han, 2017. "Renewable energy: Present research and future scope of Artificial Intelligence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 297-317.
    21. Teng, Sin Yong & Touš, Michal & Leong, Wei Dong & How, Bing Shen & Lam, Hon Loong & Máša, Vítězslav, 2021. "Recent advances on industrial data-driven energy savings: Digital twins and infrastructures," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    22. Abdulla, Hind & Sleptchenko, Andrei & Nayfeh, Ammar, 2024. "Photovoltaic systems operation and maintenance: A review and future directions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    23. Mahmoud Dhimish & Pavlos I. Lazaridis, 2022. "Approximating Shading Ratio Using the Total-Sky Imaging System: An Application for Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-16, November.
    24. Shree Krishna Acharya & Young-Min Wi & Jaehee Lee, 2021. "Weather Data Mixing Models for Day-Ahead PV Forecasting in Small-Scale PV Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, May.

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