IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v280y2020ics0306261920313465.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hybrid approaches based on deep whole-sky-image learning to photovoltaic generation forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Kong, Weicong
  • Jia, Youwei
  • Dong, Zhao Yang
  • Meng, Ke
  • Chai, Songjian

Abstract

With the ever-increased penetration of solar energy in the power grid, solar photovoltaic forecasting has become an indispensable aspect in maintaining power system stability and economic operation. At the operating stage, the forecasting accuracy of renewables has a direct influence on energy scheduling and dispatching. In this paper, we propose a series of novel approaches based on deep whole-sky-image learning architectures for very short-term solar photovoltaic generation forecasting, of which the lookahead windows concern the scales from 4 to 20 min. In particular, multiple deep learning models with the integration of both static sky image units and dynamic sky image stream are explicitly investigated. Extensive numerical studies on various models are carried out, through which the experimental results show that the proposed hybrid static image forecaster provides superior performance as compared to the benchmarking methods (i.e. the ones without sky images), with up to 8.3% improvement in general, and up to 32.8% improvement in the cases of ramp events. In addition, case studies at multiple time scales reveal that sky-image-based models can be more robust to the ramp events in solar photovoltaic generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Kong, Weicong & Jia, Youwei & Dong, Zhao Yang & Meng, Ke & Chai, Songjian, 2020. "Hybrid approaches based on deep whole-sky-image learning to photovoltaic generation forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:280:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920313465
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115875
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920313465
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115875?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chujie Tian & Jian Ma & Chunhong Zhang & Panpan Zhan, 2018. "A Deep Neural Network Model for Short-Term Load Forecast Based on Long Short-Term Memory Network and Convolutional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Li, Jiaming & Ward, John K. & Tong, Jingnan & Collins, Lyle & Platt, Glenn, 2016. "Machine learning for solar irradiance forecasting of photovoltaic system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 542-553.
    3. Liu, Youbo & Zuo, Kunyu & Liu, Xueqin (Amy) & Liu, Junyong & Kennedy, Jason M., 2018. "Dynamic pricing for decentralized energy trading in micro-grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 689-699.
    4. Abuella, Mohamed & Chowdhury, Badrul, 2019. "Forecasting of solar power ramp events: A post-processing approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 1380-1392.
    5. Walter Richardson & Hariharan Krishnaswami & Rolando Vega & Michael Cervantes, 2017. "A Low Cost, Edge Computing, All-Sky Imager for Cloud Tracking and Intra-Hour Irradiance Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Md. Nazmul Hasan & Rafia Nishat Toma & Abdullah-Al Nahid & M M Manjurul Islam & Jong-Myon Kim, 2019. "Electricity Theft Detection in Smart Grid Systems: A CNN-LSTM Based Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-18, August.
    2. Javier López Gómez & Ana Ogando Martínez & Francisco Troncoso Pastoriza & Lara Febrero Garrido & Enrique Granada Álvarez & José Antonio Orosa García, 2020. "Photovoltaic Power Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks and Numerical Weather Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A Green Energy Application in Energy Management Systems by an Artificial Intelligence-Based Solar Radiation Forecasting Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, April.
    4. Shree Krishna Acharya & Young-Min Wi & Jaehee Lee, 2019. "Short-Term Load Forecasting for a Single Household Based on Convolution Neural Networks Using Data Augmentation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Sepehr Moalem & Roya M. Ahari & Ghazanfar Shahgholian & Majid Moazzami & Seyed Mohammad Kazemi, 2022. "Long-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting in the Steel Complex Micro-Grid Electricity Supply Chain—A Coupled Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-17, October.
    6. Bulent Haznedar & Huseyin Cagan Kilinc & Furkan Ozkan & Adem Yurtsever, 2023. "Streamflow forecasting using a hybrid LSTM-PSO approach: the case of Seyhan Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 681-701, May.
    7. Polleux, Louis & Guerassimoff, Gilles & Marmorat, Jean-Paul & Sandoval-Moreno, John & Schuhler, Thierry, 2022. "An overview of the challenges of solar power integration in isolated industrial microgrids with reliability constraints," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    8. Kanitta Yarak & Apichon Witayangkurn & Kunnaree Kritiyutanont & Chomchanok Arunplod & Ryosuke Shibasaki, 2021. "Oil Palm Tree Detection and Health Classification on High-Resolution Imagery Using Deep Learning," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Myoungsoo Kim & Wonik Choi & Youngjun Jeon & Ling Liu, 2019. "A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Power Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, March.
    10. Mangirdas Morkunas & Gintaras Cernius & Gintare Giriuniene, 2019. "Assessing Business Risks of Natural Gas Trading Companies: Evidence from GET Baltic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-14, July.
    11. Wu, Jingyao & Zhao, Zhibin & Sun, Chuang & Yan, Ruqiang & Chen, Xuefeng, 2021. "Learning from Class-imbalanced Data with a Model-Agnostic Framework for Machine Intelligent Diagnosis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    12. Alessandro Niccolai & Seyedamir Orooji & Andrea Matteri & Emanuele Ogliari & Sonia Leva, 2022. "Irradiance Nowcasting by Means of Deep-Learning Analysis of Infrared Images," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-11, March.
    13. Alex Bunodiere & Han Soo Lee, 2020. "Renewable Energy Curtailment: Prediction Using a Logic-Based Forecasting Method and Mitigation Measures in Kyushu, Japan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-26, September.
    14. Chibuzor N. Obiora & Ali N. Hasan & Ahmed Ali, 2023. "Predicting Solar Irradiance at Several Time Horizons Using Machine Learning Algorithms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, June.
    15. Gillmann, Niels & Kim, Alisa, 2021. "Quantification of Economic Uncertainty: a deep learning approach," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242421, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Ariana Moncada & Walter Richardson & Rolando Vega-Avila, 2018. "Deep Learning to Forecast Solar Irradiance Using a Six-Month UTSA SkyImager Dataset," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, July.
    17. Natei Ermias Benti & Mesfin Diro Chaka & Addisu Gezahegn Semie, 2023. "Forecasting Renewable Energy Generation with Machine Learning and Deep Learning: Current Advances and Future Prospects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-33, April.
    18. Tong Xing & Hongyu Lin & Zhongfu Tan & Liwei Ju, 2019. "Coordinated Energy Management for Micro Energy Systems Considering Carbon Emissions Using Multi-Objective Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-27, November.
    19. Capper, Timothy & Gorbatcheva, Anna & Mustafa, Mustafa A. & Bahloul, Mohamed & Schwidtal, Jan Marc & Chitchyan, Ruzanna & Andoni, Merlinda & Robu, Valentin & Montakhabi, Mehdi & Scott, Ian J. & Franci, 2022. "Peer-to-peer, community self-consumption, and transactive energy: A systematic literature review of local energy market models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    20. Ge, Shaoyun & Li, Jifeng & He, Xingtang & Liu, Hong, 2021. "Joint energy market design for local integrated energy system service procurement considering demand flexibility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:280:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920313465. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.