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Assessment of diffuse solar energy under general sky condition using artificial neural network

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  • Alam, Shah
  • Kaushik, S.C.
  • Garg, S.N.

Abstract

In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) models are developed for estimating monthly mean hourly and daily diffuse solar radiation. Solar radiation data from 10 Indian stations, having different climatic conditions, all over India have been used for training and testing the ANN model. The coefficient of determination (R2) for all the stations are higher than 0.85, indicating strong correlation between diffuse solar radiation and selected input parameters. The feedforward back-propagation algorithm is used in this analysis. Results of ANN models have been compared with the measured data on the basis of percentage root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean bias error (MBE). It is found that maximum value of RMSE in ANN model is 8.8% (Vishakhapatnam, September) in the prediction of hourly diffuse solar radiation. However, for other stations same error is less than 5.1%. The computation of monthly mean daily diffuse solar radiation is also carried out and the results so obtained have been compared with those of other empirical models. The ANN model shows the maximum RMSE of 4.5% for daily diffuse radiation, while for other empirical models the same error is 37.4%. This shows that ANN model is more accurate and versatile as compared to other models to predict hourly and daily diffuse solar radiation.

Suggested Citation

  • Alam, Shah & Kaushik, S.C. & Garg, S.N., 2009. "Assessment of diffuse solar energy under general sky condition using artificial neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 554-564, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:86:y:2009:i:4:p:554-564
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alam, Shah & Kaushik, S.C. & Garg, S.N., 2006. "Computation of beam solar radiation at normal incidence using artificial neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 1483-1491.
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    4. Soares, Jacyra & Oliveira, Amauri P. & Boznar, Marija Zlata & Mlakar, Primoz & Escobedo, João F. & Machado, Antonio J., 2004. "Modeling hourly diffuse solar-radiation in the city of São Paulo using a neural-network technique," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 201-214, October.
    5. Jacovides, C.P. & Tymvios, F.S. & Assimakopoulos, V.D. & Kaltsounides, N.A., 2006. "Comparative study of various correlations in estimating hourly diffuse fraction of global solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(15), pages 2492-2504.
    6. Boland, John & Ridley, Barbara & Brown, Bruce, 2008. "Models of diffuse solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 575-584.
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