IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v36y2011i1p348-359.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimization of an artificial neural network dedicated to the multivariate forecasting of daily global radiation

Author

Listed:
  • Voyant, Cyril
  • Muselli, Marc
  • Paoli, Christophe
  • Nivet, Marie-Laure

Abstract

This paper presents an application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to predict daily solar radiation. We look at the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network which is the most used of ANNs architectures. In previous studies, we have developed an ad-hoc time series preprocessing and optimized a MLP with endogenous inputs in order to forecast the solar radiation on a horizontal surface. We propose in this paper to study the contribution of exogenous meteorological data (multivariate method) as time series to our optimized MLP and compare with different forecasting methods: a naïve forecaster (persistence), ARIMA reference predictor, an ANN with preprocessing using only endogenous inputs (univariate method) and an ANN with preprocessing using endogenous and exogenous inputs. The use of exogenous data generates an nRMSE decrease between 0.5% and 1% for two stations during 2006 and 2007 (Corsica Island, France). The prediction results are also relevant for the concrete case of a tilted PV wall (1.175 kWp). The addition of endogenous and exogenous data allows a 1% decrease of the nRMSE over a 6 months-cloudy period for the power production. While the use of exogenous data shows an interest in winter, endogenous data as inputs on a preprocessed ANN seem sufficient in summer.

Suggested Citation

  • Voyant, Cyril & Muselli, Marc & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2011. "Optimization of an artificial neural network dedicated to the multivariate forecasting of daily global radiation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 348-359.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:36:y:2011:i:1:p:348-359
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.10.032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544210005955
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2010.10.032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mellit, A. & Kalogirou, S.A. & Hontoria, L. & Shaari, S., 2009. "Artificial intelligence techniques for sizing photovoltaic systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 406-419, February.
    2. Ahlburg, Dennis A., 1992. "Error measures and the choice of a forecast method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 99-100, June.
    3. Zhang, G. Peter & Qi, Min, 2005. "Neural network forecasting for seasonal and trend time series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 501-514, January.
    4. Zarzalejo, Luis F. & Ramirez, Lourdes & Polo, Jesus, 2005. "Artificial intelligence techniques applied to hourly global irradiance estimation from satellite-derived cloud index," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 1685-1697.
    5. Kalogirou, Soteris A., 2001. "Artificial neural networks in renewable energy systems applications: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 373-401, December.
    6. Elminir, Hamdy K. & Azzam, Yosry A. & Younes, Farag I., 2007. "Prediction of hourly and daily diffuse fraction using neural network, as compared to linear regression models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1513-1523.
    7. Noorian, Ali Mohammad & Moradi, Isaac & Kamali, Gholam Ali, 2008. "Evaluation of 12 models to estimate hourly diffuse irradiation on inclined surfaces," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1406-1412.
    8. Mubiru, J., 2008. "Predicting total solar irradiation values using artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 2329-2332.
    9. Jiang, Yingni, 2009. "Computation of monthly mean daily global solar radiation in China using artificial neural networks and comparison with other empirical models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1276-1283.
    10. Cao, J.C. & Cao, S.H., 2006. "Study of forecasting solar irradiance using neural networks with preprocessing sample data by wavelet analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(15), pages 3435-3445.
    11. Benghanem, Mohamed & Mellit, Adel, 2010. "Radial Basis Function Network-based prediction of global solar radiation data: Application for sizing of a stand-alone photovoltaic system at Al-Madinah, Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3751-3762.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Voyant, Cyril & Muselli, Marc & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2012. "Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 341-355.
    2. Linares-Rodríguez, Alvaro & Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio & Pozo-Vázquez, David & Tovar-Pescador, Joaquín, 2011. "Generation of synthetic daily global solar radiation data based on ERA-Interim reanalysis and artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5356-5365.
    3. Voyant, Cyril & Paoli, Christophe & Muselli, Marc & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2013. "Multi-horizon solar radiation forecasting for Mediterranean locations using time series models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 44-52.
    4. Jha, Sunil Kr. & Bilalovic, Jasmin & Jha, Anju & Patel, Nilesh & Zhang, Han, 2017. "Renewable energy: Present research and future scope of Artificial Intelligence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 297-317.
    5. Linares-Rodriguez, Alvaro & Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio & Pozo-Vazquez, David & Tovar-Pescador, Joaquin, 2013. "An artificial neural network ensemble model for estimating global solar radiation from Meteosat satellite images," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 636-645.
    6. Deo, Ravinesh C. & Wen, Xiaohu & Qi, Feng, 2016. "A wavelet-coupled support vector machine model for forecasting global incident solar radiation using limited meteorological dataset," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 568-593.
    7. Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun & Tang, Wenjun & Yao, Ling, 2019. "A deep learning algorithm to estimate hourly global solar radiation from geostationary satellite data," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Khalil, Samy A. & Shaffie, A.M., 2016. "Evaluation of transposition models of solar irradiance over Egypt," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 105-119.
    9. Wu, Yujie & Wang, Jianzhou, 2016. "A novel hybrid model based on artificial neural networks for solar radiation prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 268-284.
    10. Khatib, Tamer & Mohamed, Azah & Sopian, K., 2012. "A review of solar energy modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2864-2869.
    11. Khalil, Samy A. & Shaffie, A.M., 2013. "A comparative study of total, direct and diffuse solar irradiance by using different models on horizontal and inclined surfaces for Cairo, Egypt," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 853-863.
    12. Dahmani, Kahina & Notton, Gilles & Voyant, Cyril & Dizene, Rabah & Nivet, Marie Laure & Paoli, Christophe & Tamas, Wani, 2016. "Multilayer Perceptron approach for estimating 5-min and hourly horizontal global irradiation from exogenous meteorological data in locations without solar measurements," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 267-282.
    13. Benghanem, Mohamed & Mellit, Adel, 2010. "Radial Basis Function Network-based prediction of global solar radiation data: Application for sizing of a stand-alone photovoltaic system at Al-Madinah, Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3751-3762.
    14. Dahmani, Kahina & Dizene, Rabah & Notton, Gilles & Paoli, Christophe & Voyant, Cyril & Nivet, Marie Laure, 2014. "Estimation of 5-min time-step data of tilted solar global irradiation using ANN (Artificial Neural Network) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 374-381.
    15. Behrang, M.A. & Assareh, E. & Noghrehabadi, A.R. & Ghanbarzadeh, A., 2011. "New sunshine-based models for predicting global solar radiation using PSO (particle swarm optimization) technique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3036-3049.
    16. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Darras, Christophe & Fouilloy, Alexis & Motte, Fabrice, 2017. "Uncertainties in global radiation time series forecasting using machine learning: The multilayer perceptron case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 248-257.
    17. Meng, Ming & Niu, Dongxiao, 2011. "Modeling CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion using the logistic equation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3355-3359.
    18. Jani, D.B. & Mishra, Manish & Sahoo, P.K., 2017. "Application of artificial neural network for predicting performance of solid desiccant cooling systems – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 352-366.
    19. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    20. Muhsen, Dhiaa Halboot & Khatib, Tamer & Nagi, Farrukh, 2017. "A review of photovoltaic water pumping system designing methods, control strategies and field performance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 70-86.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:36:y:2011:i:1:p:348-359. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.