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The Recurrence Interval Difference of Power Load in Heavy/Light Industries of China

Author

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  • Chi Zhang

    (School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 211102, China)

  • Zhengning Pu

    (School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 211102, China)

  • Jiasha Fu

    (Research Institute of Economics and Management, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 55 Guanghuacun Street, Chengdu 610074, China
    Survey and Research Center for China Household Finance, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 55 Guanghuacun Street, Chengdu 610074, China)

Abstract

The significant fluctuation of industrial electricity consumption has a high impact on power load, which makes the research on recurrence intervals between extreme events of theoretical and practical significance. The study uses a high-frequency data of heavy and light industries and employs recurrence interval analysis in different thresholds. We find that the reoccurrence interval of volatility can fit with the stretched exponential function and the probability density functions of recurrence intervals in various thresholds shows a scaling behavior. Then, the conditional probability density function and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis demonstrate the existence of short-range correlation, long-range correlation, and multifractal properties, respectively. We further construct a hazard function, introduce recurrence intervals into VaR calculation and establish a functional relationship between average recurrence interval and threshold. Following this result, we also shed light on policy discussion for multi-industrial electricity supply management.

Suggested Citation

  • Chi Zhang & Zhengning Pu & Jiasha Fu, 2018. "The Recurrence Interval Difference of Power Load in Heavy/Light Industries of China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:1:p:106-:d:125285
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    References listed on IDEAS

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