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Analysis and long term forecasting of electricity demand through a decomposition model: A case study for Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Pérez García, Julián

    (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid)

  • Moral Carcedo, Julián

    (Departamento de Análisis Económico (Teoría e Historia Económica). Universidad Autónoma de Madrid.)

Abstract

Proper planning for the dimensions of an electricity production and transmission system requires the availability of medium- and long-term electricity demand projections that are sufficiently reliable. Generally, these projections are directly linked to the estimated growth for the whole real GDP, although an in-depth historical evolution of this demand, as that given in this article, advises the explicit consideration of several determinants. The aim of this paper is to present an alternative analysis of the demand for electricity based on a simple growth rate decomposition scheme that allows the key factors behind this evolution to be identified. It is possible, taking this scheme as a starting point, to develop a long-term forecasting model to obtain projections of electricity demand given the expected evolution of the key factors. The proposed methodology is illustrated using Spain as a case study to obtain demand projections till 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Pérez García, Julián & Moral Carcedo, Julián, 2015. "Analysis and long term forecasting of electricity demand through a decomposition model: A case study for Spain," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2015/07, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    • Handle: RePEc:uam:wpaper:201507
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-term electricity demand; electricity demand forecasting; index decomposition method.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • L - Industrial Organization
    • L5 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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