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Analysis and long term forecasting of electricity demand trough a decomposition model: A case study for Spain

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  • Pérez-García, Julián
  • Moral-Carcedo, Julián

Abstract

Proper planning for the dimensions of an electricity production and transmission system requires the availability of medium- and long-term electricity demand projections that are sufficiently reliable. Generally, these projections are directly linked to the estimated growth for the whole real GDP (gross domestic product), although an in-depth historical evolution of this demand, as that given in this article, advises the explicit consideration of several determinants. The aim of this paper is to present an alternative analysis of the demand for electricity based on a simple growth rate decomposition scheme that allows the key factors behind this evolution to be identified. It is possible, taking this scheme as a starting point, to develop a long-term forecasting model to obtain projections of electricity demand given the expected evolution of the key factors. The proposed methodology is illustrated using Spain as a case study to obtain demand projections till 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Pérez-García, Julián & Moral-Carcedo, Julián, 2016. "Analysis and long term forecasting of electricity demand trough a decomposition model: A case study for Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 127-143.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:97:y:2016:i:c:p:127-143
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.11.055
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-term electricity demand; Electricity demand forecasting; Index decomposition method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • L - Industrial Organization
    • L5 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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