IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v11y2018i11p3198-d183683.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimation of the Near Future Wind Power Potential in the Black Sea

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Ganea

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering, ‘Dunarea de Jos’ University of Galati, 47 Domneasca Street, 800 008 Galati, Romania)

  • Elena Mereuta

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering, ‘Dunarea de Jos’ University of Galati, 47 Domneasca Street, 800 008 Galati, Romania)

  • Liliana Rusu

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering, ‘Dunarea de Jos’ University of Galati, 47 Domneasca Street, 800 008 Galati, Romania)

Abstract

The main objective of the present study is to quantify the recent past and explore the near future wind power potential in the Black Sea basin, evaluating the possible changes. Furthermore, an analysis of the wind climate in the target area was also performed. The wind resources have been assessed using the wind fields provided by various databases. Thus, the wind power potential from the recent past was assessed based two different sources covering each one the 30-year period (1981–2010). The first source is the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), while the second source represents the hindcast wind fields simulated by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) and provided by EURO-CORDEX databases. The estimation of the near future wind power potential was made based on wind fields simulated by the same RCM under future climate projections, considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and they cover also a 30-year time interval (2021–2050). Information in various reference points were analyzed in detail. Several conclusions resulted from the present work. Thus, as regards the mean wind power potential in winter season, in 51% of the locations a significant increase is projected in the near future (both scenarios). Besides providing a detailed description of the wind conditions from the recent past over the Black Sea basin considering two major sources, the novelty of the present work consists in the fact that it gives an estimation of the expected wind climate in the target area for the near future period and at the same time an evaluation of the climate change impacts on the wind speed and wind power potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Ganea & Elena Mereuta & Liliana Rusu, 2018. "Estimation of the Near Future Wind Power Potential in the Black Sea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:11:p:3198-:d:183683
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/11/3198/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/11/3198/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Onat, Nevzat & Ersoz, Sedat, 2011. "Analysis of wind climate and wind energy potential of regions in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 148-156.
    2. Davy, Richard & Gnatiuk, Natalia & Pettersson, Lasse & Bobylev, Leonid, 2018. "Climate change impacts on wind energy potential in the European domain with a focus on the Black Sea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 1652-1659.
    3. Nikolaev, Angel & Konidari, Popi, 2017. "Development and assessment of renewable energy policy scenarios by 2030 for Bulgaria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 792-802.
    4. Kurbatova, T. & Sotnyk, I. & Khlyap, H., 2014. "Economical mechanisms for renewable energy stimulation in Ukraine," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 486-491.
    5. Mostafaeipour, Ali & Jadidi, Mohsen & Mohammadi, Kasra & Sedaghat, Ahmad, 2014. "An analysis of wind energy potential and economic evaluation in Zahedan, Iran," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 641-650.
    6. Kaplan, Yusuf Alper, 2015. "Overview of wind energy in the world and assessment of current wind energy policies in Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 562-568.
    7. Ponta, Linda & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2018. "An Agent-based Stock-flow Consistent Model of the Sustainable Transition in the Energy Sector," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 274-300.
    8. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    9. Allegra De Filippo & Michele Lombardi & Michela Milano, 2017. "User-Aware Electricity Price Optimization for the Competitive Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-23, September.
    10. Duc Luong, Nguyen, 2015. "A critical review on potential and current status of wind energy in Vietnam," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 440-448.
    11. Daniel Ganea & Valentin Amortila & Elena Mereuta & Eugen Rusu, 2017. "A Joint Evaluation of the Wind and Wave Energy Resources Close to the Greek Islands," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-22, June.
    12. Liliana Rusu, 2015. "Assessment of the Wave Energy in the Black Sea Based on a 15-Year Hindcast with Data Assimilation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-19, September.
    13. Santos, J.A. & Rochinha, C. & Liberato, M.L.R. & Reyers, M. & Pinto, J.G., 2015. "Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 68-80.
    14. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    15. Eugen Rusu, 2018. "Numerical Modeling of the Wave Energy Propagation in the Iberian Nearshore," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, April.
    16. Koletsis, I. & Kotroni, V. & Lagouvardos, K. & Soukissian, T., 2016. "Assessment of offshore wind speed and power potential over the Mediterranean and the Black Seas under future climate changes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 234-245.
    17. Soares, Pedro M.M. & Lima, Daniela C.A. & Cardoso, Rita M. & Nascimento, Manuel L. & Semedo, Alvaro, 2017. "Western Iberian offshore wind resources: More or less in a global warming climate?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 72-90.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rusu, Liliana, 2020. "A projection of the expected wave power in the Black Sea until the end of the 21st century," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 136-147.
    2. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2022. "A review of recent studies on wind resource projections under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    3. Victoria Yildirir & Eugen Rusu & Florin Onea, 2022. "Wind Energy Assessments in the Northern Romanian Coastal Environment Based on 20 Years of Data Coming from Different Sources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Nezhad, M. Majidi & Neshat, M. & Groppi, D. & Marzialetti, P. & Heydari, A. & Sylaios, G. & Garcia, D. Astiaso, 2021. "A primary offshore wind farm site assessment using reanalysis data: a case study for Samothraki island," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 667-679.
    5. Rusu, Eugen, 2022. "Assessment of the wind power dynamics in the North Sea under climate change conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 466-475.
    6. Andrés Ruiz & Florin Onea & Eugen Rusu, 2020. "Study Concerning the Expected Dynamics of the Wind Energy Resources in the Iberian Nearshore," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-25, September.
    7. Eugen Rusu & Vengatesan Venugopal, 2019. "Special Issue “Offshore Renewable Energy: Ocean Waves, Tides and Offshore Wind”," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-4, January.
    8. Jianzhou Wang & Chunying Wu & Tong Niu, 2019. "A Novel System for Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Multi-Objective Optimization and Echo State Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Katopodis, Theodoros & Markantonis, Iason & Vlachogiannis, Diamando & Politi, Nadia & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2021. "Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 427-444.
    2. Zhang, Shuangyi & Li, Xichen, 2021. "Future projections of offshore wind energy resources in China using CMIP6 simulations and a deep learning-based downscaling method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Rusu, Liliana, 2019. "Evaluation of the near future wave energy resources in the Black Sea under two climate scenarios," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 137-146.
    4. deCastro, M. & Rusu, L. & Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Ribeiro, A. & Costoya, X. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2024. "Different approaches to analyze the impact of future climate change on the exploitation of wave energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    5. Soares, Pedro M.M. & Lima, Daniela C.A. & Cardoso, Rita M. & Nascimento, Manuel L. & Semedo, Alvaro, 2017. "Western Iberian offshore wind resources: More or less in a global warming climate?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 72-90.
    6. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Santos, F. & Sousa, M.C. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2019. "Projections of wind energy resources in the Caribbean for the 21st century," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 356-367.
    7. Rusu, Liliana, 2020. "A projection of the expected wave power in the Black Sea until the end of the 21st century," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 136-147.
    8. Rusu, Liliana, 2019. "The wave and wind power potential in the western Black Sea," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1146-1158.
    9. Américo S. Ribeiro & Maite deCastro & Liliana Rusu & Mariana Bernardino & João M. Dias & Moncho Gomez-Gesteira, 2020. "Evaluating the Future Efficiency of Wave Energy Converters along the NW Coast of the Iberian Peninsula," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-15, July.
    10. Santos, F. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & deCastro, M. & Añel, J.A. & Carvalho, D. & Costoya, Xurxo & Dias, J.M., 2018. "On the accuracy of CORDEX RCMs to project future winds over the Iberian Peninsula and surrounding ocean," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 289-300.
    11. Tolga Kara & Ahmet Duran Şahin, 2023. "Implications of Climate Change on Wind Energy Potential," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-26, October.
    12. Costoya, X. & Rocha, A. & Carvalho, D., 2020. "Using bias-correction to improve future projections of offshore wind energy resource: A case study on the Iberian Peninsula," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    13. Laura Castro-Santos & Maite deCastro & Xurxo Costoya & Almudena Filgueira-Vizoso & Isabel Lamas-Galdo & Americo Ribeiro & João M. Dias & Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, 2021. "Economic Feasibility of Floating Offshore Wind Farms Considering Near Future Wind Resources: Case Study of Iberian Coast and Bay of Biscay," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-16, March.
    14. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2022. "A review of recent studies on wind resource projections under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    15. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    16. Kumarasamy Palanimuthu & Ganesh Mayilsamy & Ameerkhan Abdul Basheer & Seong-Ryong Lee & Dongran Song & Young Hoon Joo, 2022. "A Review of Recent Aerodynamic Power Extraction Challenges in Coordinated Pitch, Yaw, and Torque Control of Large-Scale Wind Turbine Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-27, November.
    17. Marcinkowski, Paweł & Piniewski, Mikołaj, 2024. "Future changes in crop yield over Poland driven by climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen stress," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    18. Henzler, Julia & Weise, Hanna & Enright, Neal J. & Zander, Susanne & Tietjen, Britta, 2018. "A squeeze in the suitable fire interval: Simulating the persistence of fire-killed plants in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem under drier conditions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 389(C), pages 41-49.
    19. Abhiru Aryal & Albira Acharya & Ajay Kalra, 2022. "Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-22, June.
    20. Kokou Amega & Yendoubé Laré & Ramchandra Bhandari & Yacouba Moumouni & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Saidou Madougou, 2022. "Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-24, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:11:p:3198-:d:183683. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.