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Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia

Author

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  • Santos, J.A.
  • Rochinha, C.
  • Liberato, M.L.R.
  • Reyers, M.
  • Pinto, J.G.

Abstract

Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent–past (1961–2000) and future (2041–2070) climates. For recent–past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent–past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day−1), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucía reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (<15% of mean output), but exacerbated in winter (40%). Climate change projections show significant decreases over most of Iberia (<2 MWh day−1). The strong enhancement of autumn potentials in Southern Andalucía is noteworthy (>2 MWh day−1). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn–spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Santos, J.A. & Rochinha, C. & Liberato, M.L.R. & Reyers, M. & Pinto, J.G., 2015. "Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 68-80.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:75:y:2015:i:c:p:68-80
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.026
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    8. Santos, F. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & deCastro, M. & Añel, J.A. & Carvalho, D. & Costoya, Xurxo & Dias, J.M., 2018. "On the accuracy of CORDEX RCMs to project future winds over the Iberian Peninsula and surrounding ocean," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 289-300.
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    11. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Santos, F. & Sousa, M.C. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2019. "Projections of wind energy resources in the Caribbean for the 21st century," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 356-367.
    12. Prósper, Miguel A. & Otero-Casal, Carlos & Fernández, Felipe Canoura & Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo, 2019. "Wind power forecasting for a real onshore wind farm on complex terrain using WRF high resolution simulations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 674-686.
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    14. Costoya, X. & Rocha, A. & Carvalho, D., 2020. "Using bias-correction to improve future projections of offshore wind energy resource: A case study on the Iberian Peninsula," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).

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